According to customs statistics, in January 2023, my country imported approximately 140,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month decrease of approximately 17.65%, and a year-on-year decrease of approximately 38.7%; in February 2023, my country imported approximately 90,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month decrease of approximately 35.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of approximately 38.7%. 53.8%. The cumulative cotton imports from January to February were approximately 230,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 45.5%.
It is worth noting that from October to December 2022, my country’s cotton import volume increased by 106.8%, 87.4%, and 24.9% respectively. However, entering 2023, import volume suddenly reached an inflection point. The year-on-year growth not only “turned from positive to negative”, but also plummeted. It greatly exceeded the expectations of institutions and cotton-related enterprises.
A cotton trading company in Shandong said that taking into account the Spring Festival holiday in mid-to-late January and the main ICE cotton futures contract rebounding from 80.46 cents/pound to 89.31 cents/pound, the remaining cotton import quota within the 1% tariff in 2022 is too small. and other factors, the import volume is lower than that in December 2022, and it is understandable that the year-on-year growth has dropped significantly or even “turned negative”. However, the cotton import volume in February 2023 has been “halved” compared with the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 50% (moreover Spring Festival in February 2022), which is very confusing. After all, in February, the operating rate of cotton textile enterprises across the country rebounded across the board, and enterprises’ raw material inquiries/stock replenishment were relatively active; in addition, the ICE cotton futures May contract failed to test 90 cents per pound and continued to fall back, breaking through 85 cents per pound. , approaching 80 cents/pound (the intraday low of 80.88 cents/pound on February 17) and the gradual release of 1% tariff quotas in 2023, etc., but the actual import volume of foreign cotton is somewhat unexpected.
As for the reasons for the sharp year-on-year decline in cotton imports from January to February 2023, industry analysts generally believe that: on the one hand, the new export orders for cotton textile and apparel in the first quarter of 2023 are “strong expectations, weak reality”, and they are still short-term and small orders. , mainly bulk orders, large orders, medium and long-term foreign trade orders are obviously insufficient, and cotton-using enterprises are forced to continue the strategy of “buy as you use, place orders when needed”; in addition, textile and garment enterprises in coastal areas such as Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang reported that Clothing brand companies/purchasers from various countries such as the United States and the European Union have once again tightened their requirements on Xinjiang cotton import bans, which has restricted the enthusiasm of Chinese companies to accept traceability orders (since January, US cotton/Brazilian cotton/Australian cotton/Indian cotton, etc.) Shipments of domestic yarns with raw materials mixed with cotton also continue to be light); on the other hand, factors such as sufficient domestic cotton supply in 2022/23, continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and an inversion of domestic and foreign cotton at around 1,000 yuan/ton are also suppressing foreign cotton imports. Judging from the overall performance in February, the three major exchange rate quotes of the RMB central parity, onshore and offshore RMB, all showed a depreciation rate of close to 3%, which is obviously detrimental to the import of cotton, cotton yarn and so on.
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