The market entered March. As crude oil WTI continued to fall, CPL and polymerization companies that had been undergoing early maintenance resumed work this month, and the market load increased slightly. Therefore, although the demand for terminal nylon and market weaving recovered and increased in March, the overall market trend is still sluggish. The market is still tepid, and it is difficult to achieve substantial price advancement. Among them, spot caprolactam and glossy chips have recently performed weakly, and high-speed spinning and consumer yarn are relatively stable due to contract support; while the actual rise and fall of the overall market is limited due to the low overall benefits of the industry. Among them, although the spot prices of caprolactam and glossy chips are weak, their prices have only dropped by 300 yuan tons compared with the beginning of the month. The prices of high-speed spinning chips and various spinning yarns have only slightly increased by 50-100 yuan compared with the beginning of the month. Looking forward to the market outlook, there is a lack of positive market trends in the near future, and the trend will inevitably consolidate weakly. The analysis is as follows:
From the cost side, the trend is flat. The heavy burden of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes has caused the global economy to be in turmoil. Concerns about demand have caused the recent crude oil trend to fall sharply below 70 US dollars barrels in the short term. Domestic pure benzene fell below 7,000 yuan tons, while the nylon industry has been declining in recent years. The saturation situation has always been cost-driven, and its negative impact still exists. If the price of its raw materials continues to be sluggish, it will have a big impact on the future of the entire industry chain from caprolactam spot and contract, nylon chips to nylon spinning. suppress.
The supply side of the market has basically returned to normal due to the start-up of caprolactam and slicing. Especially after the Lubao 100,000-ton integrated unit and Xinhuimeida 200,000-ton polymerization have resumed operations at the beginning of the month, the overall CPL and slicing load have moved up to 76% and 74.5%. Nearby, there has been an increase of 3-5% month-on-month. The relative demand for market supply has been slightly abundant, resulting in weak spot and trend trends in the near future, and it is difficult for the contract trend to move up further. From the perspective of the future situation, although Shenyuan, Yangmei April It said that planned maintenance will tighten the industry’s supply and continue to support the market’s stability. However, 300,000 tons of Yongrong CPL will be put into production from April to May. It is inevitable that the pressure of new supply in the medium and long term will continue, and confidence is generally average.
The performance of the terminal demand side has been normal recently. Although the textile export data from January to February fell by 11% in RMB terms, the retail sales of textile and clothing above the designated size of the Bureau of Statistics increased slightly by 5.3%. The data is not very ideal, but from March to April, it is generally traditional During the peak season for start-up and the economic recovery after the epidemic this year, FDY shipments of nylon are acceptable, and most of the terminal weaving markets are still operating normally. The ten largest consumer yarn companies in nylon include Jinjiang, Hengshen, Huading, and Jiahua. Kaibang, Meida, Xinsen, Huaze, Century Morningstar, Fangxin Fangyuan, and Wanhong all have basically started construction at 8.5-10%. The construction starts are currently in a relatively ideal stage. In the first half of the year, some companies such as Century Morningstar and Jiahua will The supply of new spinning yarns has been increased one after another, and no companies have seen any reduction or suspension in the short term. In terms of weaving, the weaving demand in Guangdong is better than expected. The load of many circular warp knitting machines has reached a high of 70-90%. However, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are relatively average due to external demand orders. Changshu Xiaoshao circular knitting machines initially only produce 3-50% warp knitting woven covered yarn, with the majority remaining 5-7.5% to be further increased. But overall, the recent start of construction is still normal. Therefore, with the support of certain demand, the gross profit margins of various links in the nylon industry chain have been relatively stable recently, and have not been excessively loose.
Looking at overall factors, some product prices in the nylon industry chain market have been adjusted downward recently, mainly due to negative and cautious factors on the cost side and supply side. However, from the actual operation point of view, the current decline in industry prices remains slight, and the main market demand There is a slight caution but there is no overall deterioration. Therefore, the author believes that the downward space is still limited and is mainly under slight pressure.
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