The container shipping market, which has been “down and down” since last year, seems to have clearly “picked up” in March this year.
Freight rates rise three times in a row
The US-Western US rose 29.1% in a single week
The latest Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) returned to the 1,000-point mark after 10 weeks, recording the largest weekly increase in two years.
The SCFI index continued to rise by 76.72 points last week to 1033.65 points, the highest level since mid-January. The increase further expanded to 8.02% from 3.59% in the previous week. The U.S. East Line and the U.S. West Line continued to rebound sharply last week, but the freight rates of the European Line turned downward.
Shipping companies have decided to start raising prices on April 15, with the target of US$1,650 per large box in the West and US$2,500 in the East. Since US-line ships calculate freight rates based on the loading date of the goods, cargo owners are rushing to get there on April 15. The cargo has been loaded into the cabin in the past two days, so the cargo received by the ship during this period has been packed, and some of it has to be reserved for the next ship.
The shipping company originally planned to increase the freight rate per large box in the US by 600-1,000 US dollars, but currently the actual increase is about 400 US dollars. Due to the higher original freight level in the US East, the relative increase is lower. The shipping company has applied for another increase on May 1. , the increase is still 600-1,000 yuan, and subsequent development remains to be seen.
The latest SCFI index shows that the four major routes: the Eastern United States and the Western United States rose sharply, while the European and European routes turned downward:
North American routes: The overall inflation level in the United States remains high and is higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% policy target, causing economic growth to face greater uncertainty. Last week, transportation demand remained stable. As North American routes entered the contract signing season, some airlines took measures to control the scale of transportation capacity, which pushed market freight rates to continue to rise sharply.
The freight rate from Shanghai to the US West Coast is US$1,668/FEU, a weekly increase of US$376, or 29.10%.
The freight rate from Shanghai to East America is US$2,565/FEU, a weekly increase of US$418, or 19.41%.
European routes: As concerns about economic recession and energy markets in the euro zone have eased, inflationary pressures have also eased, and market confidence continues to recover. Transportation demand remains stable, supply and demand are balanced, and market freight rates rise slightly.
The freight rate from Shanghai to Europe was US$871/TEU, a slight decrease of US$6, or 0.68%.
The freight rate from Shanghai to the Mediterranean was US$1,618/TEU, down slightly by US$3, or 0.19%.
South America Route (Santos): The freight rate per box is US$1,535, a weekly decrease of US$206, or 11.85%.
Persian Gulf route: Although the destination country has entered the traditional Ramadan, transportation demand continues to perform well, supply and demand fundamentals are solid, and spot booking prices continue to rise. The freight rate was US$1,221/TEU, an increase of 11.8% from the previous issue.
Australia-New Zealand route: The fundamentals of supply and demand are relatively weak, and market freight rates continue to trend downward. The freight rate was US$255/TEU, down 4.5% from the previous issue.
Southeast Asia line (Singapore): The freight rate per box is US$191, down 5 yuan per week, or 2.55%.
Industry insiders pointed out that the market performance in the second quarter has shown signs of improvement compared with the first quarter, but the actual demand has not rebounded significantly. In addition to part of the early shipment wave before China’s May Day holiday, this round of rebound in U.S. line freight rates also has Reasons such as the adjustment of shipping capacity by container shipping companies may be interpreted as the shipping companies are trying their best to stabilize the new one-year long-term contract price that is under negotiation and is expected to take effect in May.
In other words, this wave of increases is mainly driven by seasonal shipments and urgent market orders. Whether it represents the beginning of a rebound trend in freight rates is determined by market supply and demand. The annual CPI growth rate in the United States was 5% in March, a new low in nearly two years, but core inflation in food and other areas is still high. However, as people’s consumption demand gradually digests inventory, coupled with the lifting of the epidemic in my country and the “economy” craze in various places, there is a chance that the shipping industry’s prosperity index will gradually pick up in the second half of the year.
In addition, there has been news that dock workers at Western US ports are slowing down work. Although it does not affect the operation of the terminal, it has also caused some cargo owners to actively ship goods.
According to Alphaliner statistics, as of March 27, about 5.5% of the global container fleet (1.459 million TEU) was idle, which was down from the recent peak of 6.4% (1.68 million TEU), which shows that ship utilization has rebounded.
NCFI: North American freight rates rise sharply
The freight index for the West-U.S. route rose 36% month-on-month
The latest Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) closed at 747.5 points, an increase of 9.3% from last week. Among the 21 routes, the freight index of 12 routes increased, and the freight index of 9 routes fell. Among the major ports along the “Maritime Silk Road”, the freight index of 9 ports increased and the freight index of 7 ports fell.
Among them, in terms of North American routes, as the market supply and demand relationship continues to improve, liner companies have taken the initiative to push up route freight rates for voyages scheduled to start in late second half, and booking prices in the spot market have increased significantly. The freight index for the US East Route was 855.3 points, an increase of 27.3% from last week; the freight index for the US West Route was 967.8 points, an increase of 36.0% from last week.
The key route index conditions during this reporting period are as follows:
The market generally believes that as the summer peak season approaches, container shipping companies are showing renewed confidence to promote new shipping capacity. However, currently, demand in Europe and the United States continues to be weak.
As a macroeconomic data highly correlated with container freight rates, the manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the United States in March were not ideal, with varying degrees of decline. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell by 2.94%, itself the lowest point since May 2020; while the euro zone manufacturing PMI fell by 2.47%. This shows that the manufacturing industry in these two regions is still in a state of contraction.
In addition, some people in the shipping industry said that shipping prices on ocean routes are basically determined by market supply and demand, and most of the fluctuations are based on market trends. Judging from the current market, shipping prices have rebounded from the end of last year, but whether ocean shipping prices can truly rise remains to be seen.
COSCO Shipping Holdings also pointed out at its recent performance meeting that freight rates on some trunk routes in the container shipping market have stabilized recently, showing a marginal improvement in the supply and demand situation in the container shipping market. However, challenges and uncertainties still exist, and the company will continue to pay close attention to customers in the future. demand recovery.
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