According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic PTA market in April showed an “M”-shaped trend, with an overall decline. As of April 29, the spot market price in East China was 6,180 yuan/ton, down 3.51% from the beginning of the month.
At the end of April, the domestic PTA device load remained near 80%. In May, restart and maintenance coexist. Yadong Petrochemical has a total production capacity of 750,000 tons/year. The device was inspected at the end of March and is scheduled to restart on May 1. The total production capacity of Xinjiang Zhongtai PTA is 1.2 million tons per year. The device is scheduled to be shut down in May and will be inspected for two months. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, the current PTA social inventory remains at around 2.7 million tons. In April, PTA supply increased, demand decreased, and the market showed a slight accumulation of inventory.
In the crude oil market, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) suddenly announced a significant production cut at the beginning of the month. It is estimated that the scale of the production reduction exceeds 1 million barrels per day. Affected by this news, international crude oil futures prices strengthened. However, prices fluctuated and fell as recession concerns and market expectations that further interest rate hikes may curb fuel demand growth.
In April, for new PX installations, Shenghong’s 4 million ton load was 90%, Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 2.6 million ton load was over 80%, and Daxie Petrochemical’s 1.6 million ton load was less than 30%. PX centralized maintenance began to be implemented, and the operating rate of Asian PX dropped rapidly. However, at the end of the month, as multiple sets of PX devices were restarted or the load increased, the tight supply of PX in the early stage was slightly alleviated, and the load of domestic PX devices remained above 70%. The centralized maintenance season in Asia is coming to an end, and the cost support for the PTA market during the PX maintenance season is also coming to an end.
Against the background of losses, downstream polyester factories began to reduce production and continued to reduce the load to about 85%. The purchase of PTA was reduced, and the demand started a negative feedback pattern, focusing on rigid demand replenishment. At the end of the month, polyester factories offered profits for shipments, but the profit performance of various varieties remained sluggish, and inventories continued to accumulate. The decline in loom start-up in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is even more obvious, continuing to fall below 55%. The domestic sales market has moderately weakened, and foreign trade orders have not shown an improvement. The current overall placement of new foreign trade orders is still relatively slow.
Analysts from Business Society believe that the support from the cost side has weakened, and PTA itself is under increasing pressure from the supply side as new equipment is put into production. At the same time, after the May Day holiday, the terminal textile off-season will gradually enter, and the demand side will become weaker and weaker. It is expected that the PTA market will remain weak in May.
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