At present, as PTA processing fees have been repaired, the operating load of enterprises is expected to increase. At the same time, due to poor polyester profits and declining weaving orders, demand is difficult to follow. Therefore, there is a certain correction pressure on PTA prices.
From the supply side, with the recent increase in PTA prices, the production and operation conditions of enterprises have improved. As of May 5, the unit cost of domestic PTA was around 5,700 yuan/ton, with an average loss of 70 yuan per ton. At present, PTA processing fees are still at a relatively high level, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises is acceptable. For comparison, the unit loss of ethylene glycol is still the highest in the chemical fiber industry chain, reaching 1,200 yuan/ton. At the same time, the operating load of ethylene glycol is also at a low level. As of May 5, the operating load of domestic PTA manufacturers was 81.61%, an increase of 6.48 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of ethylene glycol was 48.92%, a decrease of 8.6 percentage points from the same period last year.
Most of the devices that experienced concentrated declines or shutdowns in March had no plans to resume production. In April, there were not many domestic PTA maintenance devices, and the market supply was relatively stable. As the PTA processing fee is restored in the later period, it is not ruled out that parking companies will begin to resume production one after another in the early stage. Overall, under the influence of profit restoration, domestic PTA supply will show a steady and rising trend, and supply pressure is expected to gradually emerge. However, it should be noted that the operating load of upstream PX is at a low level, and the high operating load of PTA has caused a gap in PX supply. In the later period, PTA companies’ rush to buy raw materials may cause PX prices to rise, which will instead support PTA whose prices are operating near the cost line. effect.
From the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the overall performance of PTA downstream is good. The operating load of the polyester industry remains at 80% of the normal level. The operating load of the terminal weaving industry is also higher than the same period last year, showing signs of recovery in demand. As of May 5, the operating load of domestic polyester was 81.48%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of the terminal weaving industry was 64%, an increase of 9 percentage points from the same period last year. At present, the overall production and operation status of the polyester industry has declined compared with the previous period, and most products are at a loss. Among them, polyester chips lost 60 yuan/ton, polyester filament POY and FDY lost 385 yuan/ton and 265 yuan/ton respectively, polyester filament DTY made a profit of 120 yuan/ton, and polyester staple fiber and industrial yarn both suffered losses of 500 yuan. / ton, polyester bottle flakes performed slightly better, with a profit of 140 yuan / ton. In addition to poor operating conditions, polyester inventories also increased slightly. Due to the industry’s overall losses and greater destocking pressure, polyester companies have recently begun to adopt a strategy of limiting production and maintaining prices. Some companies have announced maintenance plans. In the future, the operating load of polyester will decrease, and the demand for PTA will decrease accordingly.
In terms of terminal weaving, with the end of the “Golden Three Silver Four” summer stocking season, terminal weaving orders have begun to decline. Enterprises are more focused on the strategy of quick sales of small orders and are not very willing to stock raw materials. Under this circumstance, the start-up load of the domestic weaving industry in May will show an oscillating downward trend. In short, the polyester and weaving industries downstream of the chemical fiber industry chain are subject to poor profits and seasonal factors. There are strong load reduction expectations in May, which means that the decline in market demand for PTA has become a high probability event. In this case, the market has strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, which suppresses PTA prices.
To sum up, the domestic PTA processing fee has been repaired, and market supply pressure will gradually appear. At the same time, although the operating load of the polyester and weaving industries is higher than the same period last year, there are expectations for a decline in demand in the later period due to poor profits and the end of the peak season. Therefore, the overall weak pattern of PTA will not change.
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