June is originally the off-season for the polyester market, but this year the polyester market is “unusual.” The reporter learned that on June 14, the production and sales of polyester increased. The production and sales rate on that day was as high as more than 400%, and the production and sales rate of some factories was as high as more than 700%, reaching the “highest peak” of production and sales during the year.
In this regard, Zhu Lihang, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, explained that against the background of the sharp rise in the price of raw material PTA, downstream factories have concentrated on replenishing goods, resulting in an overall increase in production and sales.
“Polyester production and sales have soared to the highest level in the year. Overall, the warming of export orders is the more important reason. Devices in overseas markets have chosen to reduce or even stop production due to low processing fees, which has opened up space for domestic enterprises to export. In Ju Under the profit promotion of ester companies, downstream profits have expanded and the willingness to buy goods has increased.”
The reporter learned that the recent peak in production and sales in the polyester market is mainly due to the improvement in market sentiment. After the price of PTA increased, the price of polyester did not follow the price increase of PTA. Instead, the factory adopted profit-sharing promotions and concentrated replenishment in the downstream. Heavy volume trading immediately occurred downstream.
In fact, price reduction promotions are more common in the polyester market, as a way to exchange price for volume to ensure healthier polyester factory inventories. As the production capacity of polyester factories continues to expand, the market as a whole shows signs of overcapacity. In order to expand the share of the downstream market, polyester factories have begun concentrated profit-sharing promotions.
According to analysts at Longzhong Information, polyester price reduction promotions are mostly focused on polyester filaments. Mainly due to the decline in raw materials at that time and the fact that production and sales did not flatten that month, price reduction promotions were carried out in order to stimulate production and sales and control inventory. Usually, there will be a significant recovery in market transactions, explosive growth in factory orders, and a significant decline in equity inventory levels.
In Zhu Lihang’s view, it is normal for a wave of high production and sales to follow price reduction promotions in the off-season. However, the current profit of polyester is not high, and there is limited room for further price reductions. And with the completion of downstream inventory replenishment, the subsequent demand for polyester may increase. After all, the market is still in the off-season and terminal demand is still relatively flat.
“In mid-June, the production and sales of polyester filament staple fiber increased. After the price fell to a low level, and in conjunction with the rising atmosphere of raw material futures, there was a trend of concentrated downstream purchasing.” Yuan Yuan, a senior analyst at Huarui Information It seems that the increase in production and sales in a single day is a normal band market trend, but it also needs to be acknowledged that this year’s polyester load and downstream construction have shown obvious resilience.
At present, the new polyester production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, while the load has remained high, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly amplified.
According to Yuan Yuan, the trend of raw materials in May and June was weak, and the cost pressure on the industrial chain was not great. The market believed that price risks were relatively limited, and companies could generally maintain stable operations, which was an important reason to support the steady start of production in the off-season. In other words, the current industrial chain as a whole is in a relatively virtuous cycle of exchanging price for volume.
“For polyester raw materials, polyester and downstream production have started steadily, which is conducive to supporting demand expectations and market confidence; however, the polyester load is already at a high level, and there is no tension in raw materials for the time being, which also leads to the market still holding a certain View with caution.” Yuan Yuan said.
In Yuan Yuan’s view, judging from the current situation, the high load of polyester can maintain a certain degree of sustainability, and we will not see a large decline for the time being. “From the perspective of polyester and downstream links, although inventory accumulation is in progress during some periods, the number of inventory days is still at a controllable level compared with previous years, and it will not drag down the company to a significant reduction for the time being.”
“In the short term, there is the possibility of a smooth transition in the off-season for polyester, but long-term sound development still depends on the realization of actual demand.” Yuan Yuan said that the current off-season accumulation of inventory is to realize the final demand. If the terminal The total demand is limited, so the inventory accumulated under high load operation may develop into a risk factor in the future. “From the perspective of immediate operating indicators, it is temporarily stable. The market’s hidden worries may be more in the long term, such as around the fourth quarter.”
“In the medium to long term, polyester bottle flakes may be the first company to make concentrated production cuts.” The above-mentioned analysts believe that more bottle flakes have been put into production this year, and most of them are large-scale installations of leading companies. Under the situation of concentrated increase in supply, the current situation The cash flow of the polyester bottle flake industry has been rapidly compressed, and the load may decline significantly in the future.
Currently, the textile and apparel industry will face a two-month off-season, with domestic and foreign demand showing weak performance. In the situation of sluggish demand, weak production and sales, and rising inventories, polyester factories, mainly leading polyester filament companies, will take the initiative to moderately reduce production to ensure that inventories are reasonably controllable, so as to take the initiative in the later market.
“Currently, the inventories of POY, FDY, DTY and polyester staple fiber remain neutral. The overseas polyester load has declined, which makes domestic polyester exports tend to be good in the short term. Domestic polyester loads are unlikely to decline significantly.” In Chen Sheng’s view, due to The outlook for the off-season is poor, and the short-term logic of the PTA market pays more attention to changes in maintenance.
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