According to customs statistics, my country’s cotton imports in May 2023 were 110,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons, an increase of 37.5%; a year-on-year decrease of 70,000 tons, a decrease of 44.6%. Cotton imports in May have continued to fall sharply year-on-year. Cotton-related companies and institutions have long expected that. On the one hand, the trend of ICE cotton futures in May is “W” shaped. With such frequent fluctuations, the decline in cotton imports has narrowed compared with the previous three months. show preference; on the other hand, judging from the feedback from international cotton merchants and trading companies, although the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continued to narrow in May until it “swung up” in stages, although the competitiveness of bonded cotton and ship cargo continued to recover, due to In the second quarter of 2023, there is a serious shortage of new export traceability orders (especially high value-added and high-profit European and American Japanese orders), medium and long-term orders are scarce, and some enterprises above designated size plan to sign 1% tariff quotas for the August-December shipping date of 2022/23 Annual Brazilian cotton and Australian cotton, so in addition to rigid demand for US dollar spot purchases, replenishment is not very active.
Judging from the feedback from cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places, due to the fact that the main ICE December contract price in June continued to consolidate in the range of 79-83 cents/pound, the long and short sides repeatedly stalemate around the 80 cents/pound mark. , competition; while the Zheng cotton CF2309 contract also fluctuated between 16,500 and 17,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff once again exceeded 1,500 yuan/ton (the price difference between Xinjiang cotton quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places and the Cotlook A index was once More than 2,000 yuan/ton), but the inquiries/shipments of bonded spot goods at ports and June/July/August shipping dates for U.S. cotton, Brazilian cotton, Mexican cotton, etc. are lower than the expectations of international cotton merchants and cotton enterprises (the transaction volume of U.S. dollar quoted resources is only There is a slight increase in volume, and the Brazilian cotton special price performance is slightly better).
A medium-sized cotton merchant in Qingdao said that as the main ICE contract fell below 80 cents/pound in recent trading days, the Zheng cotton CF2309 contract consolidated, and some traders’ bonded and cargo resource bases increased slightly. Domestic textile companies with quotas , the wait-and-see sentiment of middlemen has increased, while small and medium-sized cotton spinning mills are more concerned about fixed-price RMB resources. Transactions have picked up compared with the previous two weeks, and some inventories are low. The contract for 2022/23 Australian cotton/Brazilian cotton may have a negative impact on domestic cotton prices from June to September. Traders who are not optimistic about the situation should hurry up to cash out and withdraw funds.
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