Since July, while other commodity futures have been relatively weak, various varieties of the polyester industry chain led by PTA have performed strongly, hitting a new high in the past two months. The author believes that high short-term demand and strong cost side will support PTA to maintain a high valuation. The market expectation of buying up rather than buying down still exists, and PTA will still be dominated by long allocation in the future.
Expansion of consumption tax policy brings boost
After U.S. gasoline inventories accumulated for one consecutive month, they turned to destocking again last week. The current absolute inventory level has returned to the lowest level in the past five years, further promoting the single profit of U.S. gasoline to remain stable during the peak demand season. A strong trend. The valuation of high-octane oil blending components in Asia has also strengthened significantly. Taking toluene as an example, the price difference between toluene and naphtha is highly positively correlated with the single profit trend of U.S. gasoline. If the profit trend of U.S. oil blending can maintain a relatively high oscillation, then It has a certain supporting effect on the rising valuation of downstream oil-adjusting components, which further keeps PX prices strong. From the perspective of the price difference between light and heavy naphtha, heavy naphtha is stronger than the premium of light naphtha, making it difficult to compress PXN.
In addition, the expansion of the scope of the consumption tax policy on mixed aromatics means that the cost of oil blending components entering the oil blending pool has increased, so the logic of short-term increases in gasoline prices is relatively clear. However, for chemical raw material products, it means that the cost of entering the oil blending market will increase, and the amount returned to the chemical market will increase. However, the expansion of the scope of consumption tax policy will have a certain effect on the valuation of PTA in the short term.
Pay attention to the level of downstream stocking
As of now, the PTA load has dropped to less than 80% again. Among them, a 1.2 million-ton unit of Hailun Petrochemical was inspected as planned over the weekend, and its restart is to be determined. The load of the unit in Yisheng Hainan was reduced on the evening of July 6, and is currently 50% operational. The repair time is to be determined. Frequent plant dynamics caused the PTA load to drop to 77.58%. At the same time, the operating rate of downstream polyester manufacturers increased to 93.5%, providing certain strong support on the demand side. In addition, it should be noted that multiple sets of polyester units were included in production capacity during the week, and the domestic polyester production capacity base increased significantly. However, because the new units were not fully loaded, the capacity utilization rate increased despite a significant increase in supply. More limited. In other words, the actual increase in output of polyester plants is actually greater than the increase in capacity utilization. Then, the main reason why polyester factories can still maintain a high operating rate during the traditional off-season is that their own finished product inventory pressure is not great, and they still have production profits. Polyester manufacturers are becoming more tolerant of their own profit fluctuations. Weaving indicators such as looms have shown signs of slight improvement, and exports of PTA and polyester products have increased significantly. It is expected that the polyester load will still be able to maintain a relatively high level in the future. The overall good supply and demand situation is also the main reason why investors are optimistic about PTA.
To sum up, based on the conclusion that PXN support is relatively strong and the estimate of the absolute price of Brent crude oil in the oscillation range around US$75/barrel, coupled with the fact that downstream polyester plants can maintain high loads in the long term to support direct demand, The short-term long momentum of the PTA2309 contract still exists. From the perspective of the PTA valuation model, if Brent crude oil remains at US$78/barrel and PXN oscillates around US$440/ton, then the PTA high point will be 5800-5900 yuan/ton; if Brent crude oil rises to 80 US dollars/barrel, then the PTA valuation is expected to exceed the 6,000 yuan/ton mark. In the short term, although inventory has been reduced slightly, PTA lacks significant upward driving force. We are bullish on the market in the third quarter. However, it is still early for the market to start. In the short term, we can test long positions with light positions. In the medium and long term, we will pay attention to the degree of stocking before the peak season and the extent of PX profit compression.
</p
