Introduction: Recently, downstream orders have improved month-on-month, and market capital circulation has increased. However, when the PTA of polyester filament has increased slightly, the “price increase and shipment” has had little effect. The best production and sales in the market are mostly around 100%, and some are better at 200. More than %, demand has improved, but there is no concentrated supply of raw materials from downstream. Although polyester filament stocks are low, which is good for the market trend, the cost side is dragged down by supply and the demand side profits are squeezed. In the short term, the polyester filament market trend is restrained, and a stalemate is expected. Mainly run.
Price: According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of August 9, polyester filament POY150D/48F was quoted at 7,650 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F was quoted at 8,225 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F was quoted at 9,175 yuan/ton. The market price is at the cost end. With the boost, the price has increased by 50-250 yuan/ton compared with the low level during the year. In terms of profit, POY profit is 70.96 yuan/ton, FDY profit is 145.96 yuan/ton, and DTY profit is 325 yuan/ton.
Figure 1 Price trend chart of mainstream specifications of polyester filament in 2023
Source: Longzhong Information
Raw material end: The recent support for international crude oil has weakened, and the contradiction between supply and demand of the main raw material PTA has become more prominent. The expected increase in supply has made the market weaker. However, today the main raw material PTABP and the Fuhai unit have reduced production and shut down, affecting PTA production capacity by 3.75 million tons, and the load has dropped to 76.35%. The market atmosphere has been slightly improved, but considering that Pengwei Petrochemical, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Hengli 5#, and Fuhai Chuang all have negative expectations in the later period, the production capacity will be affected by about 6.85 million tons. Although polyester maintains a high level of 90%, PTA supply The pressure remains, the short-term market is under pressure, and costs are negative for the polyester filament market trend.
Figure 2 Price trend chart of main raw materials for polyester filament in 2023
Source: Longzhong Information
Inventory: According to Longzhong, the current average polyester filament enterprise inventory is 18.1 days, of which Zhejiang is on the lower side at about 10 days, and Jiangsu is slightly higher at around 20 days. In terms of specifications, the highest inventory of texturing enterprises is 20-35 days. It varies, the longest is more than 40 days, the minimum inventory of POY is about 10 days, and the FDY is in the middle. Polyester factory inventories remain at a low level, which is good for the polyester filament market.
Figure 3 Polyester filament and its downstream inventory changes
Source: Longzhong Information
Downstream: terminal weaving orders have improved month-on-month, and capital circulation has increased. However, the price of gray fabrics has only partially increased. Most gray fabric prices are not driven by raw materials and are mainly stable. Therefore, after the price of raw materials has increased by several hundred, the profits of gray fabrics have been squeezed, and corporate raw materials The enthusiasm for purchasing is not good. Orders in Xiaoshan, Shaoxing circular knitting machines, Haining, and Changshu warp knitting have improved in July. With the increase in stocking, new orders are currently weakening. The market mentality is cautious, purchasing enthusiasm has declined, and some of them have a situation of front-loading demand.
On the whole, although the polyester filament inventory is low, which is good for the market trend, the cost side is dragged down by supply and the demand side profits are squeezed. In the short term, the polyester filament market trend is restrained, and a stalemate is expected.
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