In the third quarter of 2023, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber will be weak, and the absolute price will rise following the cost shock. As shown in the figure, compared with the same period last year, the price level of short fiber has still declined. As of September 25, the average short fiber price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the third quarter was 7,446 yuan/ton, up 2.01% month-on-month and down 4.35% year-on-year. The peak occurred at the end of September, with the price at 7,850 yuan/ton, and the trough occurred at the end of June, with the price at 7,050 yuan/ton.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In July, the short fiber market fluctuated and rose. As the raw material end continues to rise, the overall short fiber market mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials and commodity futures. Under the atmosphere of rising prices, there is a slight replenishment phenomenon in the downstream, and some production and sales have improved. However, overall, the demand from downstream spinning mills has not After a substantial improvement in prices, the market is more cautious in pursuing higher prices. Cost has obvious guidance on price, and the absolute price of short fiber has followed the fluctuation of cost. Entering August, there was no significant change in the supply and demand side of short fiber. Prices first fell and then rose following costs, while processing fees first rose and then fell. Downstream spinning mills followed up with caution at high prices, negative feedback on demand reappeared, and the focus of staple fiber prices fell slightly. With the relative strength of raw materials such as crude oil and PTA, there is strong support for polyester staple fiber on the cost side, and there is a bargain-hunting replenishment mentality in some downstream areas, which has led to a slight increase in the overall price focus in the first half of the week. In September, the polyester staple fiber market mainly fluctuated at high levels. As it entered the peak season of the year, terminal demand gradually improved. In addition, the raw material end strongly supported the staple fiber market mentality, so the overall price did not change much.
Looking at the fourth quarter, although the fourth quarter is often the off-season for global crude oil consumption, major crude oil-producing countries have continued to reduce production, supporting the firming of oil prices. The global economic situation is facing uncertainty, and the rebound in U.S. inflation has increased expectations for interest rate hikes. Overall, crude oil prices may still have room to continue to rise. PTA supply and demand are expected to be loose, but processing fees are low and costs dominate the market. Prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate within a wide range under the support of costs. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are increasing steadily, and supply and demand continue to be loose. With the support of costs, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile.
In terms of short fiber factories, short fiber equipment was still put into operation in the fourth quarter. The expansion of industry production capacity has brought about an increase in supply, and there is currently no maintenance plan, so the overall supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the number of days of weaving orders is expected to increase first and then decrease. The number of orders placed in the traditional peak season is expected to be maintained, but the space is limited; in December, orders are expected to fall again in the off-season. The start-up of yarn and gray fabric is expected to remain relatively high overall. The demand for pure polyester yarn is expected to improve during the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” periods, but the extent is limited. Processing fees are expected to remain low. Production starts will mainly remain stable, and short fiber purchases are still cautious. From November to December, it is the off-season, and finished products of pure polyester yarn will be in stock again, and the demand for short fiber will weaken.
Taken together, in the absence of clear information, the short fiber market will still use cost as price guidance. The market will rise first and then fall, with the price fluctuation range being 6,900-7,900 yuan/ton.
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