During the National Day holiday, Chinese people ushered in a rare holiday, but European and American markets are still trading normally. As we celebrate the holiday, with the recurrence of public health incidents in autumn and the approach of the eve of the US election, during the National Day Overseas market risks deserve attention.
On the last day before the holiday, crude oil prices fell sharply again. During the U.S. trading session on September 29, WTI’s main crude oil The futures price closed down $1.49, or 3.67%, at $39.29/barrel; the main Brent crude oil futures closed down $1.53, or 3.57%, at $41.56/barrel; the main Shanghai INE crude oil futures contract closed down 2.45% in night trading , quoted at 258.4 yuan/barrel. Panic has once again appeared in the market performance. Along with the decline in crude oil prices, the US stock market and the US index have also fallen. This shows that the current market can no longer be explained only at the macro level because of geopolitical conflicts and the US presidential election between Trump and Biden. This debate will be directly related to the macro wind direction of the financial market, which makes the market sentiment very unstable. The sharp decline before the holiday can’t help but send a chill down the spines of industry insiders!
At the same time, we have found that Sino-US frictions, oil conflicts and other incidents have occurred frequently in recent years, and external markets and domestic events are difficult to predict. Whether it is policy or the occurrence of public health events, It is unpredictable whether it is good or bad. The probability of encountering unexpected events is high, and it is often impossible to make adjustments immediately. In addition, after the futures market is closed for a period of time, whether it is emotional factors or objective institutions, unexpected events Strict stop-loss discipline or forced liquidation will lead to a sharp rise or fall at the opening, resulting in high short-term market volatility.
Overall, although the week after the National Day has risen in four of the past five years, the occurrence of black swans cannot be ruled out. This year is even more special. With the November election in the United States approaching, tensions between China and the United States, China and India, and the Taiwan Strait, and the possible outbreak of a second public health incident in Europe, have intensified the market’s concerns that something might go wrong during the National Day holiday.
First of all, in terms of the epidemic, the risk points during the holidays are changes in the secondary epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, and whether new “city closures” or travel restrictions will be introduced.
In terms of economic data, we need to focus on manufacturing PMI and employment-related data in Europe and the United States. Investors can mainly use them to assess the impact of the epidemic on the economy. These data may even affect to the U.S. election, thus having a greater impact on the exchange rate, stock market and industrial product prices.
In terms of major meetings or important policies, the first is the EU 27 Leaders’ Summit on October 1-2 and the US Vice Presidential Election Debate on October 7, which should focus on Pay attention to the risk of a hard Brexit and issues related to China; secondly, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate meeting, whether to mention the yield curve control policy and the specific description of the inflation target; and finally, the second round of the new crown epidemic in the United States. As for the bailout package, if a new stimulus package with an amount of US$1 trillion to US$1.5 trillion is reached during the holidays, this will have a certain boost to the market. The current difficulty is that Trump and the Republican Party need to make major concessions to the Democratic Party. If it is delayed until after the election, considering that the first round of the U.S. stimulus bill that has expired will be difficult to sustain by relying solely on administrative decrees, this will bring negative consequences to the market. relatively negative impact.
In addition, we also need to beware of sudden black swan events during the holidays. In terms of known major risk events, in order to cooperate with the general election, there is a possibility of further escalation of the game between China and the United States in early October, and the rhythm needs to prevent the other side from playing unconventional cards; the China-India border is currently facing a heavy military confrontation, and the sixth round of military-level negotiations has not yet To achieve breakthrough progress, we need to beware of the risk of another “misfire”; in terms of unknown major risk events, more may come from the debt crisis of large global financial or real companies.
From the perspective of the textile and chemical fiber market, various reasons such as supply and demand and the epidemic have caused the social inventory of polyester to continue to rise this year. The so-called “Golden Nine” has not alleviated the pressure of high inventory. In the rest of this year, I want to It is still relatively difficult to significantly reduce the inventory. The back-and-forth trade between China and the United States has lasted for about two years. Now due to the epidemic, the United States has increasingly suppressed Chinese goods, which has created resistance to the export of textile and clothing products. However, China’s status as a manufacturing powerhouse is not temporary. can be substituted, the market demand still exists, and at the same time, due to different customer needs, the market product polarization has formed.
As for whether the upcoming October orders can arrive as promised, there are still many negative factors. The specific follow-up will not only depend on the trend of other foreign trade orders, but also on the basis of customers. Demand, epidemic trends, product characteristics and other factors to survive this year’s difficult test. </p
