International oil prices fell significantly on Monday as OPEC+ will gradually increase production and the threat of a new wave of severe COVID-19 epidemics overshadowed signs of a strong rebound in the U.S. economy. As of the close of the day, the May contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at US$58.65/barrel, a decrease of 4.56%; the June contract of Brent crude oil futures closed at US$62.15/barrel, a decrease of 4.18%.
COMEX copper posted its biggest gain in six weeks on Monday amid signs that the U.S. economy will rebound strongly. The U.S. employment report released last Friday was better than expected, triggering optimistic expectations for economic recovery. As of the close of the day, the May COMEX copper futures contract rose 3.7%, with a settlement price of $4.1375/lb, the largest increase since February 19.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen once again called for the world’s lowest tax rate in her speech on Monday, starting the Biden administration’s efforts to help the United States increase revenue and prevent companies from shifting profits overseas to avoid evasion. tax efforts. Yellen said a global minimum tax rate could help prevent the ongoing “race to the bottom” in which some countries try to outdo each other by lowering tax rates to attract business.
U.S. President Biden said on Monday that he is not worried that tax increases will harm the economy.
Although the U.S. non-farm payroll data last Friday was strong, the recent resurgence of the epidemic still clouds the U.S. job market. On Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden warned that the economic recovery process could still be reversed if Americans do not restrain their behavior to stop the spread of the epidemic.
Will the United States usher in the fourth round of the epidemic?
Although the U.S. non-farm payroll data last Friday was strong, the recent resurgence of the epidemic still clouds the U.S. job market. On Friday, U.S. President Joe Biden warned that the economic recovery process could still be reversed if Americans do not restrain their behavior to stop the spread of the epidemic.
In his speech last Friday, Biden said that too many Americans are acting as if the fight is over, but in fact it is not, and the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia has With the rise again and faster transmission in many places, there is still a long way to go in rebuilding the economy and ending the pandemic.
Last weekend, Osterholm, a member of the US President’s COVID-19 Advisory Committee, said in an interview that the fourth round of the epidemic in the United States is gathering momentum and is concentrated in young people who have not yet been vaccinated. There is a race against time between the more contagious mutant virus and the vaccination campaign. The number of severe cases and ICU admissions among people aged 30 to 50 is rising.
Europe is facing the impact of the third wave of the epidemic
On April 4, local time, Germany The Institute of Interdisciplinary Emergency Medicine (DIVI) stated in its daily COVID-19 infection report that since the beginning of February, the number of COVID-19 infected patients admitted to German intensive care units has once again exceeded 4,000. As of that day, 4,051 patients were receiving intensive care treatment in the country, an increase of 133 from the previous day. Among them, 55% of patients require invasive ventilator treatment in the intensive care unit.
Previously, in early January, the number of intensive care patients in Germany reached a peak of 5,500. But as the second wave of the epidemic receded, that number dropped significantly. By early March, the number of patients in intensive care had dropped to less than 3,000. However, the current third wave of the epidemic has led to a sharp increase in the number of new coronavirus infections and an increasing number of patients in intensive care.
In France, according to official epidemic data released on the evening of April 3, the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 in France was 96,493, with 187 new deaths. Currently, the number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in France has increased to 28,886, and the number of severe patients has increased to 5,273. In order to curb the current severe COVID-19 epidemic, the entire French mainland officially began to adopt city closure measures on April 3, local time.
International oil prices fell sharply
International oil prices fell significantly on Monday as OPEC+ will gradually increase production. and the threat of a new severe wave of COVID-19 epidemics have overshadowed signs of a strong rebound in the U.S. economy. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures May contract closed at US$58.65/barrel, a decrease of 4.56%; Brent crude oil futures June contract closed at US$62.15/barrel, a decrease of 4.18%.
At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ meeting that the market paid close attention to came to an end. OPEC+ will increase production with restraint in the coming months. According to Li Wanying, a senior energy analyst at Donghai Futures, there are several reasons behind OPEC+’s choice: First, the driving effect of supply-side shrinkage is diminishing at the margin. It’s not that OPEC+ doesn’t want oil prices to rise, it’s just that at the current time point, massive production cuts have been going on for a long time, and the market has fully reflected its future impact. At the same time, starting from the recovery situation on the demand side, we can see that refined oil consumption is still in a state of slow recovery. The pace of recovery on the demand side will be the main driver of the oil market in the later period. Therefore, OPEC+ has also chosen to gradually relax production restrictions to fully adapt to the rebalancing market. . Secondly, defend the right to speak and compete for market share. At present, OPEC+ has made full use of its own production control advantages to regain price dominance in the crude oil market. Finally, the negative impact of “restrained” production increases on prices is relatively limited. Despite positive results from mass vaccinations in the United States and Britain, the European Union continues to struggle with rising coronavirus infection rates. becauseThe consumption situation may tend to weaken. Under the expectation that the impact of the epidemic will weaken overseas, in conjunction with the implementation of loose monetary policies and proactive fiscal policies, the world will enter a stage of economic recovery, which will drive the overall nonferrous metals market to remain relatively strong.
“Under the constraints of short-term supply bottlenecks, the fundamentals of continued destocking will still provide certain support for prices.” Cao Yang, senior analyst of nonferrous metals at Orient Securities Futures, said, but infrastructure Relevant downstream galvanizing demand is unlikely to exceed expectations, and subsequent price upward impulses are insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will remain high and oscillating in the short term. In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a long-term approach in the short term, and can test long positions below 21,000 yuan/ton, while paying attention to the follow-up progress of Inner Mongolia’s dual energy consumption control policy; in the medium term, supply-side support will weaken marginally in the second half of the year. It is recommended that the idea gradually switch to short selling on highs. The specific rhythm needs to refer to the pace of overseas mine production and the turning point of zinc concentrate processing fees. At the same time, we need to be alert to the unexpected weakening of demand and the unexpected supply of zinc concentrate.
“In the second quarter, we still need to focus on the recovery of zinc mines and changes in processing fees. If supply recovers and consumption weakens simultaneously, zinc prices do not rule out the risk of falling back from high levels.” Zhang Shenghan It is also reminded that attention should be paid to whether the rumors of selling reserves are confirmed. If confirmed, the tight balance pattern of domestic zinc ingots will be quickly broken, and zinc prices will quickly face downward pressure; if proven false, the zinc market may continue to be tightly balanced, and zinc prices will continue to oscillate at high levels. </p
