The polyester staple fiber market went from a boom to a turning point in March. Order demand was not as good as expected, and order cancellations even occurred due to high costs. The production and sales of polyester staple fiber manufacturers dropped to freezing point, and prices showed a clear downward trend. This situation lasted throughout March. And the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday is coming soon. Will the holiday bring about a turn for the better?
First of all, in terms of price: it has reached a relatively low level, and the main 05 contract of polyester short-term has reached a maximum of 8578 yuan/ton since the end of February. In just one month, it has plummeted to the level of 6700-6800 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 20%, and has returned to the level before the previous rise, giving up all the strong gains in February. And based on the current basis discount of about 200 yuan/ton, the spot market is at the level of 6500-6600 yuan/ton. Some low-priced supply sources have also gradually disappeared, and prices have found some support.
Secondly, from the perspective of cost cash flow, the current cash flow of polyester short-term products has also dropped from the previous high of about 1,000 yuan/ton to just over 300 yuan/ton. Basically, this year New low. Costs appear to have some support.
Secondly, on March 31, Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange announced that Fujian Yijin and Jiangsu Desai will be added as short fiber delivery plants The database includes Qingdao Huayicheng, Qingdao Jiadery, Zhejiang Yongan Capital, Zhejiang Dunhe, Zhejiang Sibang, Xiamen Xiangyu, Xiamen C&D, Yuanda Energy, China Base Ningbo, Zhejiang Hangshi Shancheng, Yuxin Investment, and Donghai Capital Delivery warehouse for designated short fiber traders. The addition of trader libraries has been something that market participants have been waiting for and is basically confirmed. There were also rumors from time to time in March that were negative for futures prices. However, after the news of the addition of so many social libraries came to light this time, the dust has settled, and some of them have been confirmed. The negative situation is exhausted.
Finally, from the perspective of demand, the current operation of downstream yarn mills has also remained at a high level, and has experienced the digestion of downstream raw material inventories throughout March. However, in the traditional downstream cycle, April to May is In the traditional small peak season, downstream phased replenishment cycles may also appear. And the phenomenon of order cancellations due to rising costs in the early stage may also resume before and after the current return of raw material prices.
Taken together, with cost support, relatively low prices, and no new negative news, the short-term market may show a strong but volatile trend after the Qingming Festival. Of course, we also need to pay close attention to the negative impacts of macro issues such as liquidity tightening.
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