In the past week or so, the Zheng Cotton CF2105 contract has continued to consolidate at 14,500-15,000 yuan/ton. It reached an intraday low of 14,285 yuan/ton in late March, but it did not effectively break the 14,500 yuan/ton mark. Some cotton trading companies , ginner cotton basis quotations have been transferred to the CF2109 contract. Temporarily in a state of horizontal adjustment of “a top and a bottom”, cotton futures now need direction guidance from the external market, policy, fundamentals and technology.
At present, both the long and short sides of Zheng Cotton are more cautious in entering the market, and the replenishment of raw materials in various links such as cotton spinning mills, weaving, fabrics and clothing companies has shown a temporary trend. In April, most areas south of the Yangtze River gradually enter the rainy season, shrouded in smog. Is it true that Zheng Mian is also “all rainy in spring, damaging and destroying flowers and leaving them empty. I don’t know the attitude of spring, especially in the rainy gloom”?
The author believes that from the market perspective, the bottom of 14,500 yuan/ton seems to have been established, and the upward oscillation is the general trend, but the market is like the weather in this spring, “windy and rainy” , it is inevitable to encounter one round of “late spring cold”, and short sellers will repeatedly block it at 15,500 yuan / ton and other levels. In the short term, the following factors play a key role in the trend of Zheng cotton:
First, the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States has made a comeback, which has impacted the global economy, trade, transportation, exchanges, etc. After the severe rebound of the epidemic, Bulgaria and Poland were the first to declare a nationwide lockdown. France, Italy and Germany are also currently areas where the epidemic has spread more seriously. Coupled with the tense relations between China and Europe, some textile and clothing foreign trade companies and OEM companies have reported that exports Delayed delivery of orders and defaults on orders are gradually increasing. Therefore, although the new crown vaccine is widely vaccinated and the global temperature is gradually rising, it is still difficult to predict whether mankind can achieve a complete victory in the fight against the epidemic in 2021;
Secondly, in February, energy, chemical and The “overdraft” of textile and apparel orders caused by the surge in cotton and other raw materials will take time to repair. Judging from the survey, the order receipts of textile and garment enterprises in March declined significantly compared with January, while export orders from April to June were lower than expected. The excessive growth of cotton, cotton yarn, etc. seriously overdrawn the output of cloth factories, fabrics, and garment factories. Bearing and digestion capacity;
Thirdly, the domestic cotton planting area in 2021 and the weather in the main cotton-producing areas in April have become the focus of funds and cotton-related companies. In late March, the three major cotton areas in southern Xinjiang have taken the lead in starting sowing, and various parts of northern Xinjiang are expected to start sowing in early April. It will be later in the mainland. Under the general trend of Xinjiang’s cotton planting area being stable and slightly increasing, the weather will become a hype Key points;
Fourthly, capital liquidity may be “easy to tighten but difficult to loosen” in April. According to wind statistics, the central bank invested 330 billion yuan in funds in March. At the same time, 260 billion yuan of reverse repos and 100 billion MFL expired, and a total of 360 billion yuan of funds was withdrawn. Therefore, the net withdrawal of funds in March was 30 billion yuan. Taking into account the current improving economic situation, high imported inflationary pressure, tax payment peak, and the arrival of increased supply of government bonds, liquidity is expected to tighten slightly in April.
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