On April 6, the entire polyester chain was in the red, with ethylene glycol leading the gains. It once rose by more than 3%, but the gains shrank in the afternoon, closing at 5,191 yuan. Staple fiber and PTA strengthened significantly in late trading, rising 1.76% and 1.99% respectively. After a month of sluggish production and sales, with the gradual consumption of downstream raw material inventories and the decline in polyester prices, the market is waiting for weaving replenishment and terminal orders.
There is not much pressure on the supply level of ethylene glycol, especially the import link still maintains low supply. Previously, due to the weather closure of the Yangtze River, the actual arrival volume of the port has decreased. However, there has been a phased replenishment phenomenon at the polyester end. The shipment volume in the port area was good, which made the market resist the decline for a time. The overall inventory at the main port has declined slightly recently. As of March 29, the inventory at the main port in East China dropped to 544,700 tons, a decrease of 37,100 tons from last week. Of course, domestic ethylene glycol far-end supply pressure is still relatively high. This comes from the resumption of production of American units and old domestic units and the successful cracking and ignition of new equipment during the commissioning week. This once put pressure on the market, but the reality is stronger. Limit further downside.
The main force of PTA is to change the month to the 09 contract. The focus of international oil prices increased as a whole during the week. In addition, multiple sets of PTA units have successively announced maintenance. In terms of cost and supply and demand, Under good expectations, PTA prices rose. After the recent overhaul of a large number of PTA equipment, the supply and demand in the spot market have improved, the basis has continued to strengthen, and the valuation has been relatively low. After the cost side has temporarily stabilized, it has given impetus to the market recovery. Amid expectations of supply contraction and destocking, there is still support for the market, but the volume of PTA warehouse receipts is still large and the continued poor production and sales of downstream polyester has limited the market.
From the demand side, the overall load operation of the polyester factory is stable, with the average load around 93%. In the early stage, the domestic polyester industry’s production reduction and maintenance equipment have been gradually restored and restarted. The overall output is at a relatively high level, maintaining rigid support for raw materials. Although the recent production and sales of polyester factories have not yet performed well, with the consumption of supply, the market is full of expectations for a new round of downstream replenishment.
Short fiber prices have fallen sharply before, and cash flow has been compressed to around 200 yuan/ton. Downstream traders and yarn mills have concentrated on covering positions at low levels, and short fiber futures have fallen sharply. rebound. However, orders have not improved significantly yet, and some yarn mills are cautious in replenishing supplies. Of course, whether it is PTA, MEG or short fiber, factory production profits will rebound, but the profit rebound does not necessarily mean a strengthening of absolute prices, especially when there is still great uncertainty in the crude oil market outlook. </p
