In this cycle (20210402-0408), the PTA market price increased slightly. International crude oil prices have been mixed, and the cost side has been temporarily supported. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, PTA supply-side maintenance increased again in April, and the downstream polyester load remained high. The demand for raw materials remains rigid, so supply and demand continue to shrink. In the short term, PTA processing fees will still support the improvement of supply and demand. The current cost side still dominates. The recent optimistic performance of crude oil and PX has limited room for PTA prices to fall. However, high social inventories and warehouse receipt outflows will still suppress the rise of PTA. Under expectations of improving costs and supply and demand, PTA prices have risen slightly.
International crude oil prices fluctuate and adjust
Supply forecast: Although OPEC decided to gradually increase production starting in May, the increase was limited and did not bring any impact to the market. Obviously negative; in addition, U.S. crude oil production has not rebounded significantly, and Iran’s negotiations with the United States have not made significant progress this week, so the positive is still dominant.
Demand Forecast: The severity of the epidemic in Europe and even many countries in Asia is still increasing, which is still a drag on demand expectations. However, the accelerated vaccination in the United States has brought a positive atmosphere, and the IMF has raised its economic growth forecast. Global Economic data also improved.
Policy: The U.S. dollar is still running at a relatively high level recently, and it will take some time to implement the U.S.’s 2 trillion infrastructure investment, which still has a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices.
Geopolitics: Although there are still ships being attacked in the Middle East, none have resulted in serious incidents, and the impact on oil prices has been limited.
Taken together: The US-Iran talks are an important event worthy of attention in the near future. Although there has been no substantive progress in the negotiations between the two sides, the United States said this week that it is working on a package to lift sanctions on Iran, but the details have not yet been announced. The market generally expects that sanctions on Iran will not be lifted in the short term. It may take at least until this summer for Iranian supply to return to the market on a large scale. However, in the end, the actual situation still needs to track the progress of subsequent negotiations between the two parties.
To sum up, it is expected that international oil prices will have room for a slight increase next week. There is no obvious growth expected on the supply side and the global economic outlook is promising. However, the upward resistance caused by overseas epidemics is difficult to erase. It is expected that WTI may operate in the range of 59-62 US dollars/barrel, and Brent may operate in the range of 62-65 US dollars/barrel.
PTA processing fee has moved up slightly
The current PTA processing fee is around 503 yuan/ton.
PTA startup load is declining
The domestic PTA load is at 75.20%.
Downstream polyester production and sales are acceptable
The performance of polyester production and sales this week is acceptable, and the overall performance is relatively stable at around 75%.
Equipment change expectations
This week, Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million tons, Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million tons, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons units will enter maintenance. The output of TA was 942,800 tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons or 7.63% from last week.
Expected changes in downstream polyester
At present, according to Longzhong’s understanding, the polyester plant will start production, load increase, and maintenance restart next week. According to plans, Ruxin Fengming Zhongyue’s 300,000 tons/year device is scheduled to be put into operation next week, Hengke’s 400,000 tons/year device plans to increase the load, and Yuanfang’s 660,000 tons/year maintenance device is planned to restart. Domestic polyester output and load It may be significantly higher than this week, so it is expected that next week (20210409-0415) the output of the polyester industry will be around 1.15-1.16 million tons, with the load level around 94%.
PTA Trend Forecast
Supply: This week, Sichuan Energy Investment’s 1 million tons, Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million tons, and Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons units will enter maintenance , the weekly TA output was 942,800 tons, down 77,900 tons or 7.63% from last week; next week Fujian Baihong’s 2.5 million tons unit will face restart, Hengli Petrochemical 1# 2.2 million tons, Xinfengming 1# 2.5 million tons The device is shut down for maintenance, and output is expected to be 933,700 tons next week, a decrease of 9,100 tons.
Demand: There is no fluctuation in the polyester device this week. The weekly polyester output this week is 1.1404 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from last week; next week the polyester device Hengke’s 400,000-ton device will increase the load. , Xinfengming’s 300,000-ton new device was put into operation, and the weekly output next week is expected to be 1.1579 million tons, an increase of 17,500 tons.
Inventory: The overall supply and demand of PTA will be destocked next week at 84,400 tons.
Cost: The recent strong performance of the U.S. dollar index and the stabilization of monetary policy have been negative for the commodity market, constraining the upward trend of international crude oil, and PTA cost-side support is limited; PTA production continued to decrease during the week, and PX supply and demand It tends to be loose, and PX processing is poor or generally stable.
Market expectations: Supply is shrinking, and PTA supply and demand will be destocked next week. There is still support for the market, but the macro sentiment is weak, and it is difficult to have strong support on the cost side. In addition, the volume of PTA warehouse receipts is still large, and downstream Polyester production and sales continue to be hampered by poor production and sales, and market buying is cautious. Polyester factories mostly purchase on demand, and the spot basis is weakening. Taking comprehensive considerations into account, the macroeconomic and rising supply and demand drivers are weakening, and it is expected that the PTA futures market may be slightly weaker next week. </p
