According to foreign media reports on April 9, U.S. President Biden seeks to increase the fiscal year 2022 budget by 8.4% to $1.52 trillion. Fiscal year 2022 will begin in October 2021. Biden’s budget plan seeks a 16% increase in spending on domestic priorities, a request that builds on Biden’s trillions of dollars in new infrastructure spending. U.S. administration officials said Biden’s preliminary budget proposal does not include a $2 trillion infrastructure proposal or tax reform, and the White House is expected to submit the full budget to Congress later in the spring.
Affected by the correction in crude oil prices at the cost end, the chemical sector still shows a weak trend. Yesterday, the polyester chain continued to be under pressure, with ethylene glycol futures leading the decline in the entire sector. Market participants believe that overall, in the near future, the prices of polyester industry chain products such as ethylene glycol and PTA have been affected by short-term oil price fluctuations, and are also driven by fundamental factors such as device maintenance, new device commissioning, and terminal demand.
Yesterday, both glass and soda ash weakened. It is understood that the supply and demand situation of soda ash is not tight recently. High profits have driven the operating rate of soda ash equipment to run at a high level. The high price has caused the substitution effect of caustic soda for light alkali. The recent inventory depletion situation is hardly ideal. This week, the inventory of production enterprises has been in reverse. rising due to seasonal trends.
The polyester chain continues to be under pressure, with ethylene glycol and PTA falling weakly
Affected by costs Affected by the correction in crude oil prices, the chemical sector still showed a weak trend. Yesterday, the polyester chain continued to be under pressure, with ethylene glycol futures leading the decline in the entire sector.
Market participants believe that overall, in the near future, the prices of polyester industry chain products such as ethylene glycol and PTA have been affected by short-term oil price fluctuations, as well as equipment Driven by fundamental factors such as maintenance, new equipment put into production and terminal demand.
“As far as ethylene glycol is concerned, the main reason for the decline in the polyester sector is the change in its own supply and demand.” Zhu Lihang, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, said that in the early stage The trend of ethylene glycol can be said to be the strongest among polyesters. The lack of imports combined with the shrinkage of domestic supply and the continuous destocking pattern make ethylene glycol lead the chemical industry sector. With the news that satellite petrochemicals are about to be mass-produced, and overseas imports have begun to recover, although ethylene glycol stocks have been significantly depleted in recent weeks, the destocking cycle will come to an end, and the reversal of supply expectations has caused prices to begin to weaken. . “The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are greatly affected by profits. After profits recovered, the start-up of domestic devices quickly increased the burden, causing a large deviation between the supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol and expectations. This change in expectations has become the main reason for the price decline. .” Zhu Lihang said.
Picture
From the perspective of the ethylene glycol supply side, as the cash flow of various ethylene glycol processes has been restored, the domestic production of ethylene glycol has rebounded significantly since March. The total domestic production of ethylene glycol has now risen to around 73%. , at the same time, the supply of new production capacity increased significantly in the second quarter, and more than 3 million tons of new production capacity will be gradually put into operation starting in April. Domestic supply is expected to rise significantly.
In terms of imports, due to the early maintenance of overseas devices, domestic imports decreased. Imports from February to April dropped sharply month-on-month. As overseas devices resume supply, it is expected to increase from Import volume began to gradually pick up in late May, so the overall pressure on the supply side was high in the second quarter.
Dadi Futures analyst Jiang Shuopeng said that the current demand-side polyester load remains high, and the profits of each product, especially filament, are on the high side, but the downstream production and sales performance is average. The overall inventory of polyester is high, and the polyester link is restricted by terminals; terminal weaving operations remain stable, but orders are mainly domestic, new order increases are limited, overseas orders are still weak, and it will still take time for overseas demand to recover.
“Overall, the short-term fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still tight, and the inventory performance is at a one-year low. But in the medium and long term, as imports gradually Recovery and the gradual commissioning of many new domestic units. In particular, the output increase of the second phase new units of Satellite Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to be gradually released in May. The fundamentals of ethylene glycol will gradually change from tight to loose, and inventories will gradually become lower. Accumulation.” Jiang Shuopeng said.
During the interview, a reporter from Futures Daily learned that yesterday’s drop in PTA futures was not only due to the weakening cost-end oil prices, but also to the impact on pre-processing. Expensive repairs.
“Previously, the PTA spot processing fee once exceeded 500 yuan/ton, and under the expectation of high production, it has reached 500 yuan. The processing fee per ton is at a relatively high level, and there is an expectation of downward recovery.” Zhu Lihang said that after this round of sharp decline, the PTA processing fee has returned to a low level of about 300 yuan/ton, and the probability of further decline in the future is relatively high. Small.
“PTA will enter centralized maintenance in April, and inventory will be significantly reduced. Although Affected by the large number of cancellations of warehouse receipts, the spot basis has weakened, but the overall supply and demand pattern is still favorable. It is estimated that about 400,000 tons will be destocked in April, but in the second quarter, PTA is expected to put into production two sets of Yisheng units.��Some companies involved in heating tasks require that they be shut down immediately after the heating season ends. Among them, 1.48 million tons of coking production capacity in Pingyao and Taigu areas of Jinzhong will be discontinued in the near future; 1.4 million tons of coking production capacity in Luliang Intersection area is expected to be gradually shut down in April. On the demand side, it remains low, but in terms of supply coking, production may be limited, and new production capacity is also expected to be delayed. Therefore, supply and demand are uncertain, and coke or oscillation is the main factor.
Glass and soda ash both weakened
Yesterday, glass and soda ash both weakened. “The main 2109 contract of glass futures weakened, with a decrease of 3%, which reflects the market’s confidence in the stable supply and demand situation of glass in the far month; the trend of the 2105 contract in the near month is stronger, corresponding to the continued depletion of manufacturers’ inventories and the continued growth of downstream glass consumption. Reality. Glass is not easy to rise in far months, and it is not easy to fall in near months.” Founder mid-term futures analyst Wei Chaoming said.
Compared with glass, the trend of soda ash futures continues to be weak, which is also within the market’s expectations. In this regard, Wei Chaoming explained that the recent supply and demand situation of soda ash is not tense. High profits have driven the operating rate of soda ash equipment to run at a high level. High prices have caused the substitution effect of caustic soda for light soda. The recent inventory depletion situation is hardly ideal. Production this week Corporate inventories are rising against seasonal trends. After the expected high demand in the second half of the year pushed up the market, the 2105 contract faced greater pressure on hedging warehouse receipts and exit pressure on allocative positions.
Regarding the recent sharp drop in soda ash futures, Zhaojin Futures analyst Sun Yiming believes that , on the one hand, it is based on concerns about excessive fermentation of future expectations; on the other hand, after the shortage of other raw materials in the photovoltaic market, investors have questioned the progress of the photovoltaic production line commissioning in the second half of the year, so recently prices have begun to gradually eliminate the expected premium. “Looking at glass, shipments in the spot market are generally good. Under the premise of sustainable demand, manufacturers with low inventories lack the motivation to cut prices, and the spot market can provide strong support for prices. But it is worth noting that it is about to enter the off-season of busy farming and plum rains. The short-term market lacks new and stronger upward drivers.” Sun Yiming said.
In addition, there are also production lines that are about to be ignited, coupled with the recent real estate regulation, making Market risks have increased. “If the market cools down and traders no longer continue to increase purchases and focus only on selling their own inventories, manufacturers’ inventory increases should quickly rise, and the rapid increase in inventories will have a great impact on market confidence. Although Yuanyue The expectations are good, but the recent adjustment risks are also gradually brewing.” Sun Yiming said.
In the view of Fan Ajiao, an analyst at Hongye Futures, this year, glass and soda ash are driving in the same direction, rising and falling together. The glass market is stronger, and soda ash is the first to fall. , glass follows. The reason is that on the one hand, April and May are in the off-season for spot trade. Manufacturers’ production and sales weakened, and inventories began to accumulate. Downstream companies no longer concentrated on large-scale replenishment, and basically purchased on demand. The price drop was in line with seasonal characteristics. On the other hand, the price increase in the early stage of the market is in place, the high valuation peaked first, and the fall back is a normal adjustment. Judging from historical data in previous years, the second quarter is also a period of slowness and stability. This correction will continue, and a decline of 10% to 15% is within a reasonable range.
“Looking forward to the market outlook, the demand for soda ash will explode from the third to the fourth quarter. There may be a supply gap for soda ash at the end of the fourth quarter. After that, glass and The strength relationship of soda ash may be reversed. The quality of glass demand will also be confirmed by then.” Fan Gillian said.
“With the accelerated resumption of production of cold repair equipment and the shift of some ultra-white glass from photovoltaic cells to the construction field, the long-term supply and demand situation of glass tends to be balanced or even relaxed. It is a high probability that the forward prices corresponding to the main 2109 contract and the far-month 2201 contract will continue to weaken. But currently, the supply and demand of glass are booming, and the industrial chain inventory continues to be depleted, the spot and near-month prices are still expected to remain strong.” Wei Chaoming said .
In his view, new photovoltaic glass installations will be put into operation in the second half of the year, soda ash supply and demand still maintain a good trend, and the 2109 contract has limited room for correction. Under the pressure of allocative bulls leaving the market, the near-month soda ash contract may decline further in the short term, which will provide a rare opportunity for companies with the willingness and ability to receive goods to replenish low-priced supply.
</p
