Exclusive news from China Cotton Network: According to feedback from some cotton processing enterprises and cotton traders in Xinjiang, cotton spot quotations and transaction prices have been adjusted downwards since early April. It has accelerated compared with March. Some cotton-related companies are reluctant to sell and wait for the price. The mentality of selling has changed, and they have plans to speed up shipments and speed up the withdrawal of funds.
At present, the quotation price of “Double 28” machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang’s supervision warehouse has been reduced to 15100-15200 yuan/ton (level 31, due to quality indicators, Impurity content and warehouses vary), and has dropped by more than 1,500 yuan/ton from the highest point in late February. Although it is lower than the adjustment range of the CF2105 contract (from 17,080 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton), it is still significantly higher Based on the expectations of ginners and traders. On April 8-9, the “Double 28” Xinjiang machine-picked cotton in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other inland warehouses was quoted at 15,400-15,600 yuan/ton, and the price difference of the same grade and quality cotton in Xinjiang dropped to 250-400 yuan/ton. According to industry analysis, due to the explosive growth of railway and road shipments in Xinjiang in February, March and April (especially road transportation, which is almost equal to railway transportation), it is expected that the price difference between cotton prices inside and outside Xinjiang will continue to narrow in April and May.
Why has the decline in Xinjiang cotton spot prices suddenly accelerated in the past week? The author investigated and summarized the following points:
First, as the CF2105 contract fell again, cotton traders and futures companies hedging in the May contract have stepped up their positions. In the large-scale “sell spot, close short orders” arbitrage operation, the basis quotation is stable on the surface, but the discount range for actual orders is significantly expanded (especially for large purchase orders, the profit can even reach 150-250 yuan/ton), and the cotton spot price has to break through under pressure The quota has been lowered, and the rumors about quotas are actually not credible;
Second, as of early April, the port bonded cotton + customs clearance cotton inventory has not only been close to Warning line (an international cotton merchant judged that the port cotton inventory has exceeded 500,000 tons), and inquiries and transactions have continued to be light and very inactive. Therefore, some traders have taken the initiative to lower the basis for customs clearance of Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, and US cotton (CF2105+ basis), the price competitiveness of foreign cotton has increased, putting horizontal pressure on Xinjiang cotton spot;
Third, since late March, domestic textile enterprises and intermediaries have There is little enthusiasm for low-quality purchases and price-pointing, and only mid- to low-quality cotton “fixed price” transactions are slightly better. In May, some Xinjiang cotton companies and traders were under pressure to repay loans and had to speed up shipments and payment collections.
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