Introduction
In March 2021, the average monthly processing fee of PTA was around 334 yuan, and considering the gross profit, the loss was more than 300 yuan per ton, which dropped to the lowest level in 57 months. Lows. PTA’s current predicament is mainly affected by the rapid expansion of production capacity and huge inventory. Both factors are difficult to reverse in the short term, and the variables on the cost side and downstream demand will also change in the short term. Put additional pressure on the PTA in the short term. The low-profit situation has caused many production capacities to announce maintenance plans for the second quarter. Even though this will provide some support for PTA prices, it is difficult to bring about a substantial improvement in profits.
Starting from November 2020, with the general increase in prices in the polyester industry chain, the price of PTA has also ushered in a round of rise, rising from about 3,000 yuan/ton to It was more than 4,500 yuan in early March this year. But on the other side of the sharp rise in prices, profits have not increased: In the fourth quarter of 2020, PTA’s gross profit actually declined slightly amid fluctuations (Phase I in the figure below), and entered an obvious downward trend in January 2021. (Phase II in the picture below). Although it did not continue to decline in February and March, it remained at a theoretical loss of 250-300 yuan per ton (Phase III in the picture below). Of course, this is also the low point of gross profit in recent years. Under the current extremely low profit margins, some PTA manufacturers have announced plans to shut down for maintenance in the second quarter.
The “two big mountains” above PTA
The market outlook is also difficult
First of all, the pressure of expanding production and accumulating inventory has caused PTA’s operating load The rate is falling and will continue to cause the industry’s operating rate to decline. PTA’s operating load rate has gradually dropped from a high of more than 90% in the early period to a level slightly less than 80% at the end of March. Affected by extremely low profits, many production capacities were shut down for maintenance in the second quarter, and some PTA manufacturers that were not shut down also reduced their loads. In the case of high operating rates in the downstream polyester industry, the reduced PTA operating rates can effectively dilute the impact of new production capacity, thereby providing certain support for PTA prices.
However, as mentioned above, huge inventory comes first, and new production capacity comes later. Even if prices do not fall or even increase, PTA’s profit recovery path is destined to go Got to be tough. </p
