Flame retardant fabric_Flame retardant fabric_Cotton flame retardant fabric_Flame retardant fabric information platform Flame-retardant Fabric News An airport in Iraq was attacked by rockets! The “Big Three” came to the rescue and international oil prices soared!

An airport in Iraq was attacked by rockets! The “Big Three” came to the rescue and international oil prices soared!



On the evening of April 14, local time, an explosion occurred at the international airport in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, and the US consu…

On the evening of April 14, local time, an explosion occurred at the international airport in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, and the US consulate near the area sounded the alarm. The Kurdish autonomous government’s counterterrorism department said the explosion was caused by at least one rocket attack. There are US troops stationed in the military zone of Erbil Airport. There is currently no specific information on casualties and property damage.

The Saudi-led coalition destroyed an explosives-laden drone launched in the direction of Jizan, Saudi Arabia.

This week, the “three energy giants” OPEC, IEA, and EIA have released three oil market reports, showing that crude oil demand will rebound, while inventories are declining. On Wednesday, international oil prices once rose sharply. rose more than 5%. The actual price of Brent June crude oil futures closed up $2.91/barrel on Wednesday, or 4.57%, to $66.58/barrel. The actual price of U.S. May crude oil futures closed up $2.97/barrel on Wednesday, or 4.94%, at $63.15/barrel. WTI May crude oil futures closed up $2.97/barrel, or 4.935%, at $63.15/barrel.

On Wednesday local time, at an online event held by the Economic Club of Washington, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the U.S. economy is at an inflection point and will enter a period of accelerated growth and creation of more jobs. period. Most Fed officials believe there will be no interest rate hikes before 2024, and a rate hike before the end of 2022 is highly unlikely. The Fed may gradually taper its bond purchases before considering raising interest rates.

On the afternoon of April 14, local time, U.S. President Biden officially announced that he would begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan on May 1 this year and that all U.S. soldiers would be withdrawn from Afghanistan before September 11. Evacuate. Biden said the decision was made in consultation with Vice President Harris, allies, partners, military and intelligence personnel, the State Department and Congress. On the evening of the 14th local time, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg announced in Brussels that NATO-led troops in Afghanistan will withdraw from Afghanistan in a “coordinated and orderly” manner before May 1 this year. NATO and US forces will complete all withdrawals within months.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) stated on the 13th that the agency will ban the import of certain products from the Japanese areas surrounding the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. some agricultural products and dairy products. According to the Wall Street Journal, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare earlier confirmed that the radioactive iodine content in certain dairy products, fresh produce and infant formula in Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tochigi and Gunma prefectures reached five times the acceptable level. .

The International Monetary Fund said that although the current economic weakness has suppressed inflation, it raised its inflation forecast for Europe by 1.1% to 3.1%, partly due to the impact of commodity prices. . A spike in inflation could force the European Central Bank to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. The European Central Bank previously said inflation could reach 2% in the last quarter of this year. The IMF said in its report that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative as long as the outlook for underlying inflationary pressures remains subdued. Central banks should credibly express their determination to prevent a premature rise in real yields while allowing for a temporary rise in inflation related to the disruption of the epidemic and the volatility of commodity prices.

OPEC raises global oil demand forecast for 2021

Yesterday, the center of gravity of international crude oil prices rose slightly overnight As the market moved, domestic crude oil futures also saw a large increase in intraday trading, closing up 1.71% at 397.8 yuan/barrel. The main crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4.14% in night trading at 410.3 yuan/barrel.

“As the rebound atmosphere in the commodity market continues to strengthen, investor optimism has increased significantly, and crude oil has also increased its rise.” Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D of Haitong Futures, said about futures Daily reporters said that the rise in international oil prices overnight was related to OPEC’s increase in its 2021 global oil demand forecast.

It is understood that on April 13, in its latest monthly report, OPEC raised its 2021 global oil demand forecast by 60,000 barrels per day, from the previous 5.89 million barrels /day to 5.95 million barrels per day, and raised its forecast for global economic growth by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. The organization said that countries around the world, especially OECD members, expect a stronger-than-expected recovery in the second half of the year, thanks to stimulus packages and further easing of epidemic lockdown measures.

Yang An said that this move improved market expectations and had a significant boost to market sentiment. In addition, in the early morning of April 14, Beijing time, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that API crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 3.608 million barrels in the week ending April 9, far exceeding market expectations, which further stimulated oil prices to rise.

“In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil futures prices within the market was also affected by the strong performance of China’s import and export data. As the largest importer of crude oil, China’s strong import and export data means that International crude oil demand will increase,” said Liu Jiao, an analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, China’s total import and export value of goods trade was 8.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.2% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 4.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.7%; imports were 3.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.3%; the trade surplus was 759.29 billion yuan, an increase of 690.6%.

According to the OPEC report, based on the progress in the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic and the continued recovery of the world economy driven by economic stimulus from many countries, the global oil demand forecast has been raised. However, due to the escalation of prevention and control measures caused by repeated epidemics in Europe, OPEC lowered global oil demand in the first half of this year.

In Liu Jiao’s view, OPEC has raised its global oil demand forecast, including recent signs of strong economic recovery in China and the United States, which are supporting the rise in oil prices. However, the recurrence of epidemics in Europe and market concerns about delays in the global rollout of vaccines, There is undoubtedly a certain negative feedback on the demand for crude oil, which limits the increase in oil prices.

“What’s more interesting is that OPEC’s monthly report predicts that global crude oil demand growth in 2021 is expected to be 5.95 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous 5.89 million barrels per day. This is different from the information revealed at the OPEC ministerial meeting in early April. At that time, the OPEC Joint Technical Committee (JTC) lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth this year from 5.9 million barrels per day to 5.6 million barrels per day. The entire meeting also It revolves around this downward adjustment in demand, so the two different statements by OPEC are intriguing, and it cannot be ruled out that OPEC made adjustments in the monthly report from the perspective of appeasing the market.” Yang An said.

The current epidemic situation is still severe. In Europe, following France’s GDP reduction from 6% to 5% due to the epidemic, the German Engineering Association forecast Germany’s 2021 GDP on April 12. It was lowered from the previous 3.5% to 3%; and with the epidemic doubling in 10 days and new confirmed cases reaching 180,000, India, the world’s third largest crude oil consumer, has inevitably affected crude oil demand. “So at this time, OPEC’s monthly report to raise the demand outlook requires the support of more evidence. Next, we will further pay attention to the relevant outlook of the IEA and EIA.” Yang An said.

“The crude oil market is currently recovering from last week’s weakness, but it has not yet gotten rid of the recent oscillation and consolidation pattern. To get rid of the oscillation and strengthen further, more favorable factors are needed for oil prices to get rid of the oscillation. “At present, there are relatively few positive factors in the market, and some investment banks and institutions have begun to conservatively predict the future performance of oil prices.” Yang An said that Morgan Stanley said that oil prices may stay this summer. In the range of $65-70/barrel, due to the increase in U.S. drilling activities and the possibility of Iran resuming exports, the bank temporarily adjusted its previous forecast of $70/barrel. Goldman Sachs also mentioned in a report a few days ago that if sanctions on Iran are lifted, the oil price forecast will be reduced by US$5/barrel. If sanctions are extended, oil prices will maintain the judgment that Brent crude oil will hit US$80/barrel this summer.

In Liu Jiao’s view, the global economic recovery and optimism about the improvement of the global COVID-19 epidemic have positive feedback to the market. It is expected that oil prices will maintain an upward trend in the long term, but this cannot be ruled out short-term fluctuations. The market is worried about rising U.S. production, including increased crude oil supplies from Iran, and OPEC and its allies will provide more supplies starting in May. The periodic negative effects on the supply side will put certain restrictions on the rise in oil prices. In the later period, we need to focus on the development of the epidemic in Europe, the progress of global vaccine promotion, and OPEC’s increase in crude oil production.

Under cost support, asphalt and fuel oil, which had plummeted in the early stage, both rose.

Crude oil prices in both internal and external markets The sharp rise in prices boosted asphalt and high-sulfur fuel oil, which both fell to more than two-month lows the day before. Asphalt has been rising since the opening, jumping 4.17% from the low to close at 2,900 yuan/ton; high-sulfur fuel oil rose to a maximum of 2,423 yuan/ton, a new high in the past two weeks, and closed at 2,420 yuan/ton.

Yu Pengsen, an energy and chemical analyst at Zhaojin Futures, said that the current strength of the asphalt market is based on the rise in crude oil prices, but some changes have also occurred in the fundamentals of asphalt itself. “First, the overall demand for asphalt in society is recovering, and manufacturers’ inventories have dropped slightly this week. Under the premise that manufacturers have started to increase operations, asphalt manufacturers’ inventories can decline, giving the market a certain boost. Second, crude oil continues to oscillate higher, which for traders And downstream, it is a very clear boosting signal. The strength of crude oil has boosted market sentiment. It is market inertia to buy up and not down.” He said.

“The current rebound in asphalt futures on the one hand represents the need for rebound recovery after oversold, on the other hand it reflects the real market demand and the broad expectations of the industry. The early rebound of asphalt futures relative to crude oil It is obviously oversold, and the profits of asphalt refineries have been severely compressed. Manufacturers generally suffer losses, which has indeed suppressed the enthusiasm for production.” Yu Pengsen said that yesterday’s rise can be said to be a repair to the previous sentiment, and it can be determined that The short-term decline ended and turned into oscillation.

But in terms of long-term trends, Yu Pengsen believes that on the one hand, demand is about to begin to be released, on the other hand, asphalt is facing large inventories and high construction starts, and it is still difficult to confirm the mid- and long-term prospects. Trend, we need to closely observe the specific trend of crude oil and the recovery of downstream demand.

In terms of fuel oil, according to Du Bingqin, an energy analyst at Everbright Futures, since the first quarter of this year, the trend of domestic fuel oil has basically followed the fluctuations of oil prices. Boosted by oil prices, The price centers of FU and LU have risen sharply, and the increase in LU has been even more obvious. This is mainly due to the flat performance of the fuel oil market in the first quarter, with supply remaining loose, demand relatively stable, and no obvious contradiction in fundamentals. Therefore, the sharp increase in oil prices has given strong support to fuel oil from the cost side. Especially for LU, its absolute price and cracking profit are both in the historical low valuation range, so the increase and elasticity are significantly stronger than that of FU.

“From a fundamental perspective, entering the second quarter, the fundamentals of both high-sulfur fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil will show a certain degree of improvement.” Du Bingqin He said that although the production of high-sulfur fuel oil will increase month-on-month as OPEC+ gradually increases production from May, judging from the cautious attitude of OPEC countries towards supply release, the marginal increase in supply is expected to be limited. More importantly, the demand for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil will also begin to strengthen, especially as the summer power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil becomes increasingly apparent. As the dry bulk market recovers, it is expected that ship fuel demand will also gradually increase. Pick up. This will give certain support to the current fuel oil market from the demand side. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the fluctuation of oil prices and the progress of power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in the second quarter.

��Looking at the cautious attitude towards supply release, the marginal increase in supply is expected to be limited. More importantly, the demand for high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil will also begin to strengthen, especially as the summer power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil becomes increasingly apparent. As the dry bulk market recovers, it is expected that ship fuel demand will also gradually increase. Pick up. This will give certain support to the current fuel oil market from the demand side. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the fluctuation of oil prices and the progress of power generation demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in the second quarter. </p

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