A few days ago, the first 300,000 tons/year PTA unit of the Yangzi Petrochemical Chemical Plant in Nanjing Jiangbei New Materials Technology Park officially entered the dismantling stage.
This set was put into production in September 1989. It was the earliest PTA device put into production in the New Materials Science and Technology Park and the first mechanical dismantling device of Yangzi Petrochemical. It has created huge benefits for Yangzi Petrochemical and the park. Restricted and affected by factors such as domestic overcapacity of PTA, backward technology and high energy consumption, this PTA device was withdrawn from production in 2013. After the device is dismantled, the original site will be used as reserve land for the park’s “14th Five-Year Plan” construction, helping the factory continue to tackle difficulties and create efficiency.
The picture shows the demolition site
PTA processing fees have been testing marginal benefit processing costs
It is also the stage of gradually phasing out Class A devices
It can be seen from the PTA production process that the production cost of PTA mainly includes the cost of raw materials (including PX/acetic acid and catalysts, etc.), power costs (electricity/steam and industrial water, etc.), workshop costs (labor and Maintenance, etc.), financial expenses (depreciation and finance, etc.) as well as selling expenses and packaging expenses, etc. With the continuous expansion of the production capacity base of the equipment and the application of new technologies, the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials and power have been continuously reduced. The new PTA equipment has performed superiorly in terms of cost control and profitability; while the old equipment was limited by the influence of the technology at that time. Although it has been continuously technologically improved after its completion Cost reduction and efficiency increase, but the profit level is still not the same as that of new equipment.
In order to facilitate analysis, PTA devices are simply divided into three categories: Class A devices, the devices are older, smaller and more broken, such as this 300,000-ton old device of Yangzi Petrochemical , as well as old installations within the Sinopec system; Class B installations, large installations with a scale of more than 2 million tons such as Yisheng/Hanbang/Hengli/Fuhua; Class C installations, new 2.2 million tons installations in Tongkun and Xinfengminghe Hengli Phase IV and so on.
There is a large difference in processing costs between various types of devices. Especially new devices benefit from the use of new technologies and have made improvements in material and energy consumption, directly crushing various old devices: on the one hand, reaction efficiency Gradually improving, the consumption of PX decreased from 0.660 to 0.648 (theoretical consumption 0.639), and the consumption of acetic acid also decreased from 0.04 to 0.029; on the other hand, in terms of energy consumption, the utilization efficiency of steam and reaction heat was improved, and the steam consumption per unit cost was at However, the power generation is increasing, and the reduction in energy consumption is earth-shaking.
Another important factor that determines processing costs is the size of the enterprise. There is a concept in economics called economies of scale. As the scale of output continues to expand, the average cost continues to decrease. This phenomenon is also called the “marginal effect.” Simply put, the larger the enterprise, the higher the marginal effect and the lower the average cost. We divide the equipment into three categories. Category A has a production capacity of less than 1.4 million tons, Category B has a production capacity between 1.5 and 2.2 million tons, and Category C has a production capacity of more than 2.2 million tons. Based on economies of scale, Class C devices have the lowest processing costs and Class A devices have the highest processing costs. Judging from the current situation, the structural proportion of the three types of devices is roughly A:B:C=3:2:5; some insiders estimate that the complete cost of a Type B device is around 450, and the complete cost of a Type A device is around 450. More than 700. In other words, for the processing fee of 334 yuan in March, Class B devices are facing losses, and Class A devices are already losing about 360 yuan.
Depreciation, amortization and financial expenses are different among each device. For old devices or depreciation has been completed, the unit cost of management expenses or financial expenses of large companies may be lower, so In recent years, PTA processing fees have been testing marginal benefit processing costs, which is also the stage of gradually phasing out Class A devices.
27.8 million tons of production capacity to be launched
PTA has a huge production capacity You Cun
In March 2021, the average monthly processing fee of PTA was around 334 yuan, and considering the gross profit, the loss was more than 300 yuan per ton, falling to a 57-month low. The current situation of PTA is mainly affected by the rapid expansion of production capacity and huge inventory. Affected by the impact of public health events and the launch of new production capacity, PTA social inventory rose to a high level after 2020, and has never seen a significant reduction in inventory since then. At the end of February, it reached an unprecedented high of 4.35 million tons.
After several years of integration, acquisition, reorganization and expansion, private companies such as Hengli, Rongsheng, Hengyi, Shenghong and Tongkun have emerged. With the commissioning of integrated projects, manufacturing companies Further increase market control capabilities. my country’s PTA production capacity will continue to grow significantly in the next few years, and private enterprises will still be the main force in expanding production.
These two factors are difficult to reverse in the short term, and variables on the cost side and downstream demand will also bring additional pressure to PTA in the short term.
In the first quarter of this year, 4.9 million tons of new domestic production capacity were added, and another 3.3 million tons will be put into operation in the second quarter. Without considering the clearance of old PTA and polyester production capacity, to absorb these new PTA production capacities, 960 tons of new downstream polyester production capacity will be needed. The reality is cold. In the first quarter, only 750,000 tons of new polyester production capacity was launched, which is far below the ideal level that can absorb the new PTA production capacity. In the second quarter, only 3.2 million tons are planned to be launched. Adding up the new polyester production capacity in the first and second quarters, the gap between supply and demand is already more than half. Serious inequality in marginal changes in production capacity has led toAs a result, when downstream filament production and sales are booming after the year, PTA’s losses will expand in the second quarter. This phenomenon will continue, and PTA’s production capacity still remains.
The huge inventory comes first, and the new production capacity comes later. Even if the price does not drop, there may even be As a result, PTA’s profit recovery road is destined to be difficult. </p
