In the early trading on the 23rd, all Zheng cotton contracts rose rapidly. The price of the CF2109 contract approached the 16,000 yuan/ton mark. Bulls had the upper hand, and the oscillation range of the main contract moved up to 15,500-16,000 yuan/ton. Such a rapid and sharp rebound in Zheng cotton is somewhat unexpected, and the views of cotton-related companies, investors, institutions, etc. have changed accordingly. Some cotton processing companies and traders believe that once the main contract stabilizes at 16,000 yuan/ton, the next target will be It is 16,300 yuan/ton.
Why did Zheng Cotton rise sharply on the 23rd? The author believes that although it is related to the rise in commodities such as Shanghai copper and thread, more power comes from cotton fundamentals.
First, the COVID-19 epidemic in India has been completely out of control since late March, and the Indian authorities have had to increase prevention and control efforts (New Delhi emergency lockdown), and the cotton textile industry has been greatly impacted. , some companies even stopped work and production. In addition, due to the “lockdown” of Bangladesh due to the epidemic and the unrest in Myanmar, some overseas orders have continued to return to China in the near future (currently mainly orders for home textiles, bedding, shirts, etc.), and later orders can be expected;
Second, from the day of April 21 to the night of April 23, some areas in northern Xinjiang experienced cooling and snowfall. The temperature in southern Xinjiang also dropped slightly and was accompanied by strong winds of about level 6. Not only did the progress of cotton planting slow down, but also Disasters occur frequently in cotton fields sown in late March in some areas of southern Xinjiang, and the market is increasingly worried about Xinjiang’s cotton output in 2021/22;
Thirdly, the U.S. dollar has continued to weaken recently, and bulk Commodity futures accelerated their rebound, especially the strong performance of textile raw material prices. Recently, ICE cotton has risen by more than 10%. Zheng cotton was finally released on the 23rd under the pressure of negative market rumors in the early stage. </p
