PTA prices have risen significantly after the Spring Festival. According to data, as of April 14, the average ex-warehouse price in East China was 4,415 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.4% compared to February 10.
PTA prices have increased
But the level of losses is even worse
Although PTA prices have improved, PTA losses have intensified against the backdrop of a stronger cost side.
Looking back at the profits in March, since the ACP of PX in March was US$870/ton, the cost of PTA was calculated as 50% ACP + 50% spot, superimposed on the overall ice in March The price of acetic acid is at a historical high, and many PTA companies have suffered significant losses.
In April, the ACP of PX failed to reach an agreement that month. Most PTA manufacturers’ costs followed the PX spot price trend, and processing fees also rebounded slightly, but they did not reach a healthy level. degree of profitability. According to estimates, the PTA processing cost on April 14 was only 280 yuan/ton, and the price of glacial acetic acid has hit new highs, causing the PTA factory to actually still be at a loss.
According to ICIS data, as of April 14, the average price of glacial acetic acid in East China was 7,325 yuan/ton. Calculated based on a unit consumption ratio of 3.5%, glacial acetic acid currently needs to be deducted The cost exceeds 250 yuan/ton. Therefore, the theoretical processing space of PTA is only about 30 yuan/ton.
Except for the pressure brought by glacial acetic acid, the shadow of overcapacity of PTA has been causing the growth rate among similar polyester raw materials this year to be at the end. After the Spring Festival this year, the crude oil market rose significantly compared with 2020, and the PTA market rose accordingly. Downstream polyester products also continued to increase their quotations driven by the raw material market. However, under high cost pressure, although the terminal weaving market has resumed work faster than in previous years, The procurement of raw materials has slowed down; at the same time, after the direct cost PX market price continues to rise, the PTA market processing fee has been significantly narrowed.
In the past two years, more and more domestic refining and chemical integrated units have been put into operation. Although there are some signs of delay in actual launch, they are basically put into operation within the year, and new ones are put into production at the same time. Most of the devices are equipped with supporting upstream and downstream industries, and new devices generally have the advantages of large production capacity, low cost, and low unit consumption; currently, newly invested devices are basically concentrated in the hands of industry leaders, and leading chemical fiber companies have basically achieved self-sufficiency, achieving from The polyester industry chain from a drop of oil to a piece of cloth is fully laid out. At the same time, as the concentration of production capacity continues to increase, leading companies have an increasingly important say in the industry.
It can be seen from the above table that the PTA market has officially entered the production capacity launch period, while the growth rate of downstream polyester has slowed down significantly, and market supply The problem of excess is beginning to emerge. At the same time, due to the impact of global public health events in 2020, the recovery of demand has lagged behind. However, the pace of PTA production has continued to advance, and social inventories in the market have continued to accumulate, creating new history. Although with the application of futures tools, the spot market has appeared several times. The supply of goods is tight, but high inventory always suppresses the market mentality.
Dual pressure on profits and demand
PTA factory starts a new round of shutdown for maintenance
Under the dual pressure of profits and demand, the PTA factory started shutdown for maintenance to relieve the pressure it faced.
Large-scale installations have been overhauled one after another, and the market supply has been significantly reduced, while downstream polyester profits have increased While maintaining a high level, even if there is no significant increase in production and sales, device starts have remained at a high level. The supply and demand of the PTA market has improved significantly from March to April, and destocking has been achieved. However, the number of cancellations of PTA futures warehouse receipts has been relatively large and concentrated recently, and futures supply has flowed into the spot market, benefiting from the maintenance of hedging devices. Although the spot basis has performed relatively strongly recently, it obviously lacks momentum to continue to strengthen.
The overcapacity backlog
The new release port will be ” “It”?
The current level of equipment maintenance seems to be overwhelming in the face of huge supply, but don’t underestimate the leading PTA companies. This action is giving great support to the PTA market!
At present, overall, the problem of oversupply in the PTA market is unavoidable. Although recent equipment maintenance has slowed down the market accumulation rate, the equipment maintenance time is extremely limited, and there will still be new production capacity in the future. The plan is to be released, but domestic downstream polyester demand is difficult to follow at the same rate. It is expected that the PTA market accumulation speed will be significantly accelerated from May to June, and the market is likely to seek export relief. According to customs data, PTA export volume has shown a clear upward trend since the fourth quarter of 2020. As PTA production capacity continues to increase and domestic competitive pressure continues to intensify, most manufacturers will turn their attention to the export market. , and most of the domestic PTA production companies are mainly refining and chemical integration, with a complete industrial chain layout and equipped with upstream and downstream equipment. It has advantages over foreign devices in terms of technology, supporting facilities, scale, etc., which is conducive to the development of the PTA export market.
According to customs statistics, my country’s PTA export volume in March was 338674.4tons, the cumulative export volume was 630,268.2 tons, the export value for the month was US$196.9811 million, the cumulative export value was US$342.8841 million, the average export price for the month was US$581.62/ton, the cumulative average export price was US$544.03/ton, and the export volume increased by 72.27% month-on-month. , the export volume increased by 220.43% year-on-year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 240.24% compared with the same period last year.
Taken together, domestic PTA production capacity will achieve continuous leap-forward growth in recent years. At the same time, with the international development and mature application of PTA futures, Export volume is expected to continue to increase, and domestic companies’ voice in the international arena will further increase. The editor feels that if PTA exports can still maintain high growth in the later period, then the haze of overcapacity can be effectively released and alleviated, and we should not be so pessimistic about the trend of PTA this year! </p
