Profits dominate
The processing gap is low, which suppresses the enthusiasm of factories for production. In addition, the downstream polyester production rate is high, and PTA prices have strong support. Even if the launch of new production capacity is negative for prices, the PTA market still has the fundamental conditions to support its strong operation.
The picture shows the PTA device operating rate (unit: %)
PTA prices have rebounded from around 4,200 yuan/ton at the end of March to The recent price of 4,600 yuan/ton is mainly driven by the increase in equipment maintenance, strong crude oil prices and the high polyester operating rate. Looking forward to the market outlook, the logic of market operation in the short term is on the cost side.
PTA processing fees are low
In recent years, the increase in PTA production capacity has increased the supply of PTA, and on the other hand, it has also boosted the demand for related excipients. Among them, due to different devices, the unit consumption of acetic acid is distributed between 29-40KG/T. According to the average estimate of 35KG/T, the current monthly consumption of acetic acid in PTA production is 150,000-160,000 tons, and the consumption increased by 23% year-on-year.
The demand for acetic acid in the domestic PTA industry has increased, and the shutdown of foreign acetic acid plants has also stimulated domestic export demand. It is reported that since the beginning of the year, acetic acid production capacity involving 5.8 million tons/year has been temporarily stopped or reduced, accounting for approximately 63% of the total production capacity. Therefore, the acetic acid market is experiencing tight short-term supply due to rising device failure rates and new production capacity expected from May to June.
At present, some manufacturers quote acetic acid at 7,200-7,300 yuan/ton, which means that the cost of acetic acid to produce one ton of PTA is about 290 yuan. Since March, PTA factories have announced load reductions from time to time. Judging from the current situation, the price increase of PTA is not as high as that of PX, and the PTA processing difference has returned to below 300 yuan/ton. Taking into account the rise in acetic acid prices, the probability of PTA processing fees being effectively improved in a short time is low, and the equipment maintenance volume may continue to be high in May. . At present, the units of Hengli Petrochemical No. 5 and Yisheng Ningbo are scheduled to be overhauled. The specific time is to be determined, and the units of Xinfengming No. 2 and Ningbo Liwan are scheduled to be overhauled in mid-May. This round of maintenance involves a total production capacity of 6.35 million tons per year.
Polyester’s availability rate remains high
From March 5 to April 16, polyester’s availability rate remained at 92% for seven consecutive weeks. The operating rate on the 16th increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the availability rate of filament and short fiber is high, while the availability rate of bottle flakes declines seasonally. The overall load of the polyester factory is stable, with an average of 92.98%. However, there are plans to increase the load of polyester units in the short term. For example, Xinfengming Zhongyue’s unit with a production capacity of 300,000 tons/year is expected to have a load increase of 93%.
Data show that in the second quarter, new production capacity will be launched in filament and short fiber, including 1.4 million tons/year of new filament production capacity and 100,000 tons/year of short fiber production capacity. PTA Demand will increase accordingly.
In addition, overseas downstream markets are ushering in the peak season, and my country’s supply is 200-230 euros/ton lower than local prices. Domestic exports of polyester bottle flakes are profitable, and subsequent export volumes will continue to rise.
PX is in a destocking state
The U.S. stimulus package has brought about inflation expectations, OPEC+ has maintained production cuts, and the number of vaccinations has increased to boost the crude oil market. In the short term, crude oil There is no basis for a sharp drop in prices. In addition, in the second quarter, PX entered the traditional maintenance season. South Korea’s maintenance involves 1.17 million tons/year, Japan involves 460,000 tons/year, India involves 2.25 million tons/year, and my country involves 1.4 million tons/year. The total production capacity exceeds 500,000 tons/year. Thousands of tons/year. At the same time, Yisheng New Materials plans to put into production in May, involving a production capacity of approximately 3.5 million tons/year. By then, the demand for PX as a raw material is bound to increase. Therefore, the PX market was still in a state of destocking in the second quarter.
To sum up, the low processing difference suppresses the enthusiasm for the start-up of PTA equipment. In addition, the start-up rate of polyester is high, and the price of PTA has strong support. Although the 3.5 million tons/year production capacity of Yisheng New Materials is planned to be launched in May, and the supply of PTA will increase, the demand for PX will also increase accordingly, and the second quarter is the traditional maintenance season of PX. In the short term, the trend of PTA will still be dominated by the cost PX end. It can be said that the launch of new production capacity is temporarily negative for PTA prices, and PTA has the fundamentals to support its strong operation, and there are long-term opportunities in the band. </p
