In the first quarter of 2021, my country exported 190,000 tons of PTA to India, a year-on-year increase of 8.7 times, showing explosive growth. Since November last year, China’s PTA exports have been around 300,000 tons per month, and the export volume has shown a rapid upward trend; in February and March this year, my country’s PTA export volume hit record highs. Amid the COVID-19 epidemic, China’s PTA has emerged against the wind, and large-scale, integrated, and low-cost installations are sweeping the world.
New high export volume
In March 2021, my country’s PTA export volume reached 338,700 tons, setting another new record A record high, with a month-on-month increase of 72.27% and a year-on-year increase of 220.43%. Net exports of PTA in the first quarter of 2021 were 614,000 tons, an increase of 1,125% compared with the first quarter of 2020.
Comparing China’s PTA exporting countries in the first quarter of 2018-2021, it can be seen that in January 2021 The quantity of PTA exported from China to India showed explosive growth every quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, China exported about 191,200 tons of PTA to India, an increase of 7787% compared with the first quarter of 2020. In addition, the amount of PTA exported to Oman in the first quarter of 2021 was also higher than that of 2020. Increased 83% in the first quarter of the year.
Regional supply and demand imbalance helps PTA exports
The quantity of PTA exported to India and Oman increased significantly in the first quarter of 2021, mainly because the epidemic and low PTA processing fees caused a regional supply and demand imbalance of PTA. The short-term supply of foreign PTA exceeded demand, while the domestic PTA supply was excessive. The characteristics are obvious. The production capacity of a single foreign PTA device is much smaller than that of a domestic device. For example, the two largest PTA devices in India have a designed production capacity of 1.3 million tons, while other PTA devices in India have a single production capacity of 300,000-800,000 tons. A single PTA device in India Those with a designed production capacity of 1 million tons and above only account for about 36% of its total PTA production capacity.
In the context of low PTA processing fees, the production losses of small PTA devices cannot guarantee continued normal operation. Therefore, its PTA suppliers are unable to meet the needs of its home country and are given An opportunity for domestic PTA to expand into foreign markets.
my country’s PTA has entered the second round of rapid capacity expansion cycle in history since 2020. Large-scale PTA devices have been put into production intensively. There is great pressure on domestic PTA surplus, and PTA suppliers are also urgently needed. The export market needs to be expanded to alleviate the pressure of excess domestic PTA.
Expectation: Short-term – The epidemic in India is out of control, which is bad for short-term PTA exports
The epidemic in India is out of control in late April , the number of new confirmed cases in a single day continues to hit new highs, which is expected to impact its domestic polyester demand and be negative for my country’s PTA exports in the short term. The deterioration of the epidemic in India has not directly affected my country’s PTA export volume in April. According to market feedback, my country’s PTA export volume in April is still expected to be good. The export volume based on preliminary estimates based on previously summarized information may still be around 300,000 tons.
However, with the explosive growth in the number of new people in India in a single day at the end of April, India’s domestic demand for PTA is likely to weaken, which will affect PTA exports in May and beyond.
Based on the preliminary market feedback received on April 26, the market’s feedback on whether the Indian epidemic affects PTA exports is temporarily divided into three types:
1) There is no impact yet;
2) There is a certain impact (but the number of Indian customers’ chargebacks for my country’s PTA has not been disclosed);
3) There is no specific impact yet, but its Indian customers expressed concerns about weakening downstream demand.
Medium and long term – export expected preference
In the medium and long term, my country’s PTA export expectations remain Preference, mainly due to the development trend of large-scale equipment and integrated industrial supporting facilities in the domestic PTA industry, the competitiveness of my country’s PTA will be significantly better than that of other foreign countries.
Among the PTA production capacity outside mainland China in 2020, PTA units with a single production capacity of less than 1 million tons accounted for about 70%. In recent years, the new global PTA production capacity has been concentrated in my country. Among the 35.6 million tons of PTA devices newly added or planned to be added in my country from 2021 to 2024, 32.1 million tons of devices have a single designed production capacity of 2.5 million tons and above. Scale will significantly reduce the unit material consumption of PTA.
Looking at this part of the new PTA production capacity based on the availability of industrial chain supporting equipment, the new PTA production capacity with PX-PTA-polyester upstream and downstream supporting equipment is 19.1 million tons, accounting for 54 About %; with upstream PX supporting equipment, the production capacity is 2.5 million tons, accounting for 7%; with downstream supporting polyester equipment, the production capacity is 12.5 million tons, accounting for 35%; with upstream and downstream supporting equipment, the production capacity is 1.5 million tons, accounting for only 4 %.
The overall profitability of integrated enterprises is strong, and they can adjust the overall profitability by relying on the complementary profit and loss of multiple links. In the stage where foreign PTA production capacity is trapped in production losses, domestic PTA There is great potential to expand the export market.
Taken together, the production cost pressure of a single PTA device with a design capacity of less than one million tons Larger, and almost all large-scale PTA devices in the world are concentrated in my country.
Although the worsening of the epidemic in India may temporarily prevent my country’s PTA exports from reaching new highs, my country’s PTA industry chain has integrated and large-scale competitive advantages. In the medium and long term, my country’s The expectations for PTA exports are relatively optimistic.
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