Spandex, as MSG in textiles, can significantly improve elasticity when added to fabrics, so it is very popular. The price has remained at 30,000 yuan/ton for many years. Among the price increases of bulk chemical products after the Spring Festival this year, spandex led the way with prices exceeding 60,000 yuan/ton. However, most bulk chemical products that have increased in price since March have Despite a certain degree of correction, only the price of spandex remains strong.
The market has been stable recently, and the downstream terminal cluster market is getting goods on demand
The domestic spandex market has been stable recently. The overall industry operating rate is 8.5-90%. The inventory backlog is not large. Downstream customers and dealers are following up slightly. All areas of terminal textiles are operating normally. Circular knitting machines, lace, The operating rates of weaving, yarn wrapping, warp knitting, and cotton bale enterprises are mostly between 5.50% and 80%.
1. Fujian region: The spandex market is operating at a high level, and the supply of goods has basically stabilized. The downstream terminal market is in urgent need of procurement, and the actual order will be discussed in detail. In terms of price: the mainstream price of 20D is 83,000-86,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 30D is 74,000-76,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 40D is 63,000-66,000 yuan/ton.
2. Jiangsu region: The spandex market is temporarily stable. Some manufacturers are still in tight supply. The downstream terminal market is getting goods on demand. The overall market sentiment is still strong. In terms of price: the mainstream price of 20D is 83,000-85,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 30D is 73,000-75,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 40D is 63,000-65,000 yuan/ton. Among them, the trend of spandex in Changshu is stable and the raw materials are sorted. The seller’s inventory is not high to support the market. Dealers in the small textile market can generally follow up on the delivery of goods. The downstream operations have remained normal in the near future. Some orders for circular knitting machines are relatively normal. The circular knitting machine market is open 4- 50%. Price: The market price of 40D is 63,000-68,000 yuan/ton or 70,000 yuan/ton for a small order. Among them, the trend of Shengze spandex is stable and the raw materials are sorted. The seller’s inventory backlog is not large. The downstream textile market dealers have followed up slightly in the near future. The downstream weaving operation is still relatively normal. The overall weaving and empty bales will become the main ones in 7-8, and the big manufacturers are still a little bit. More than 80% higher. In terms of price: the 40D market is mainly priced at 62,000-66,000 yuan/ton.
3. Shandong region: The spandex market continues to consolidate, and the spot supply is basically stable. The downstream terminal market is in urgent need of purchasing, and all parties are cautious in trading. In terms of price: the mainstream price of 20D is 83,000-86,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 30D is 74,000-76,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of 40D is 63,000-66,000 yuan/ton.
4. Zhejiang region: The spandex market remains stable, and the supply of goods has basically stabilized. Some fine denier is still tight, and downstream terminal markets are in urgent need of procurement. In terms of price: the mainstream price of 20D is 83,000-85,000 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of 30D is 73,000-75,000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of 40D is 63,000-65,000 yuan/ton. Among them, the spandex market in Xiaoshao is still relatively stable, raw materials are sorted, and the industry’s inventory is generally small. Sellers are supported, while middlemen and customers maintain a small follow-up. Demand for downstream operations in Xiaoshao is normal, and the overall empty rounding machine package is within 60-70%. . In terms of price: 40D execution requirements range from RMB 62,000 to RMB 66,000, and some are priced at RMB 61,000, with sporadic supply ranging from RMB 68,000 to RMB 69,000.
It jumped to 64,000 yuan/ton in a short period of time, and the price will still remain at a high level
2016 The annual average price of spandex (specification is 40D, the same below) is 29,565 yuan/ton, 35,785 yuan/ton in 2017, and the average prices from 2018 to 2020 are: 34,836 yuan/ton, 30,987 yuan/ton, and 30,347 yuan/ton. , in terms of average price comparison, the average price of spandex in 2020, which was hit by the epidemic, fell only 2% from the previous year. Compared with the 30% drop in oil prices and aromatic hydrocarbon prices, the ability to withstand declines is first-rate. The price of spandex is still strong for the following reasons:
1. Spandex is an added component of elastic fabrics, and the addition ratio also has a certain degree of “elasticity”
Strongness, softness and elasticity of textile and clothing fabrics are three important physical indicators. For elastic fabrics, changes in the proportion of spandex added will have a greater impact on the elastic quality of the fabric, but through Later improvements in advertising can avoid changes in the addition ratio. After all, non-professionals are not sensitive to changes in the addition ratio, and professionals will understand the high price.
2. High operating rate, low inventory, strong demand for elastic fabrics
Faced with 64,000 yuan / ton of high-priced spandex, downstream companies have basically adopted a purchase strategy of buying as you use it. Even so, under the operating load of more than 90% of spandex companies, social inventory has remained low and has lasted for 5 months. Downstream elastic fabrics Demand is strong and domestic supply remains tight. The domestic spandex production capacity is 870,000 tons, with a monthly output of 67,000 tons. It imports a small amount (approximately 2,000-3,000 tons imported per month) and exports (approximately 6,000-8,000 tons exported per month), and the export quantity is higher than the import quantity. It has a relatively large A good import and export regulation mechanism is expected to play a certain role in maintaining the price of spandex in the future.
3. The price of the upstream raw material PTMEG continues to remain strong
There are two upstream raw materials for spandex, one It is PTMEG, with a unit consumption of 0.8; the other is pure MDI, with a unit consumption of 0.2. The upstream of PTMEG is BDO. BDO mainly has two downstream products, one is PTMEG and the other is PBT. PBT is a hot topic this year. Starting from January 1st, domestic supermarkets have been forced to use degradable plastic packaging bags, resulting in a shortage of PBT and other degradable plastics, driving the prices of products in the industry chain such as BDO, PBT, and PTMEG to rise sharply. , enter 3���BDO fell due to the correction of high PBT prices, but PTMEG rose again in the opposite direction, indirectly supporting the high price of spandex.
4. The inherent balance of domestic BDO resources is broken
As one of the typical application scenarios of domestic coal chemical industry, domestic coal chemical enterprises will choose to install BDO devices and match them with PTMEG devices. The current domestic BDO device production capacity is 2.2 million tons, and most downstream companies are equipped with PTMEG devices. Only a few companies are equipped with PBT devices. Of the total domestic PTMEG production capacity of 950,000 tons, 640,000 tons of the upstream raw material BDO is provided internally by the company, so PTMEG has sufficient internal supply capacity of raw materials. When the demand for BDO, another downstream product, PBT, was strong, the original balance in the past was broken, resulting in tight production of PTMEG, resulting in firm prices.
In addition to the increase in demand for downstream elastic fabrics, the firm price of spandex is also an important reason for the price increase due to the tight resources of BDO and PBT at the front end of the industrial chain. The price of spandex has been running at a high level for 2 months due to the dual stimulation of tight upstream raw material supply and growing downstream demand. Moreover, under the unfavorable market situation of BDO prices falling along with PBT prices, spandex prices are still running at a high level, and downstream demand Strength is inseparable.
Therefore, it is expected that as the domestic demand for elastic fabrics continues to be stable, it is difficult to increase domestic BDO production capacity in a short period of time, and it is unlikely that foreign production capacity will recover in the short term. Under expectations, spandex prices will remain high for some time. The main risk comes from whether the current good export momentum of textile and clothing will be hindered.
Long-term high prices will trigger a new round of equipment investment boom,
reduce product quality, Promote the research and development of textile and clothing fabrics to avoid high-priced products
But on the other hand, the long-term high price of spandex is definitely not a good thing for the industry chain and will induce a new trend. The investment boom in wheel equipment has reduced the quality of products and promoted the research and development of textile and clothing fabrics to avoid high-priced products. The recent surge in domestic investment in BDO, PBT and other equipment will cause greater turmoil in the future, and whether this will lead to an increase in investment in spandex also deserves great attention from the industry chain.
From the perspective of the next five years, spandex is still in a new cycle of accelerating capacity expansion. Industry development is still concentrated on leading enterprises and listed companies, and industry concentration will rise again to new heights.
To sum up, the spandex market is mainly driven by the cost-end market and the supply exceeds demand. The short-term correction space is limited, and factory quotations still remain at a relatively high level. After the downstream weaving resumed work after the holiday, faced with high-priced raw materials, the intention to chase prices and purchase was weak. At present, the fine-denier and high-priced spandex has exceeded the acceptable level on the demand side. Low-end products cannot afford it, and high-end products use less. Downstream weaving companies either Accept high-priced raw materials, or wait and see before being forced to reduce production or stop production. The overall load operation of the spandex market has reached a high level. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the upstream BDO can increase the operation, increase supply, and strengthen reasonable control over the bidding model. The cost side has not been lowered in the short term. The spandex market can still maintain a strong pattern, and the bargaining power of the chemical fiber market is still controlled by upstream manufacturers.
At present, the increase in spandex supply in 2021 is limited. The terminal demand in the post-epidemic era must continue to improve, which will continue to drive the entire spandex industry chain. In the warehouse, there is limited room to increase the operating rate of spandex factories, and under the background of less new production capacity, the tight supply of spandex may continue, and short-term market prices will increase. Follow-up attention will be paid to the start-up of upstream raw materials, price changes, and the acceptance of replenishment by downstream customers. </p
