Recently, the market price trend of ethylene glycol in East China has been volatile. As of May Day, the market price in Zhangjiagang dropped from 5,200 yuan/ton in early April to 4,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.61%. The lowest actual transaction price fell below 4,700 yuan/ton, and it was heard that there was a transaction at 4,680 yuan/ton. . On the first trading day after Labor Day, the price of ethylene glycol in the East China market showed a rebound trend, but the rebound was limited and the price increase was obviously difficult.
So what is the reason that makes it difficult for the price of ethylene glycol to rise significantly? The editor below conducts a simple analysis of the recent market.
Supply side: The main factor behind the low and volatile ethylene glycol price is forward supply pressure. Due to the expected commissioning of large-scale new production capacity, the market is highly concerned. Judging from the performance of the supply side, ethylene glycol units change frequently. A 200,000-ton/year ethylene glycol unit in Shandong was shut down for annual inspection on May 1 and is scheduled to be inspected for about 30 days; a 300,000-ton/year ethylene glycol unit in Guizhou The ethylene glycol unit will undergo a one-month annual inspection starting from May 5; a 380,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit in Shanghai will be shut down for one-month maintenance on May 5. There are still some units scheduled for maintenance in May, involving 950,000 tons/year of oil production capacity and 600,000 tons/year of syngas production capacity. If these units are overhauled as scheduled, approximately 200,000 tons of output will be lost in May. The three sets of syngas production units that were restarted at the end of April are now in stable operation. As for the original units, the total domestic output in May increased by about 60,000 to 70,000 tons.
Of course, May is also the period of concentrated supply of new production capacity. The first is a 900,000-ton/year ethylene glycol unit put into operation in Lianyungang. Labor Day During this period, the operation was basically stable, and the Line 2 device also has a feeding plan in the near future, but the specific time has not yet been determined. Hubei Sanning’s 600,000 tons/year coal-to-ethylene glycol unit and Jianyuan Coking’s 260,000 tons/year coal-to-ethylene glycol unit are expected to produce products in late May. In addition, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical also has plans to put into production. Driven by the release of new production capacity, the overall supply of domestic ethylene glycol increased in May. However, when the centralized maintenance period meets the production capacity launch period, the actual output in May is not expected to change significantly, and the long-term domestic monthly output is expected to exceed one million tons.
Judging from the port inventory situation, it is always at a low position and has not yet experienced inventory accumulation. However, import volume is expected to increase in May, and overseas installations Supply is gradually restored. During the May Day holiday, approximately 170,000 tons were unloaded in Zhangjiagang and Taicang. However, the shipment situation was good and the increase in inventory was not prominent. Supplies from Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United States will arrive one after another this month. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, some overseas ethylene glycol will flow back into the country, and the increase in import volume is expected to be strong.
It can be seen that the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is obvious. Under the suppression of such a large production capacity, it is difficult for the market price to rise significantly.
Demand side: Recently, polyester factories have had frequent promotions, and production and sales have increased sharply before the holidays, which has eased inventory pressure. After the holidays, the overall operating load has increased slightly and is currently maintained at around 93%. Several sets of new equipment are expected to be put into operation in May. Some factories of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber are also planned for maintenance. The range of output changes is limited. The polyester industry is expected to continue to operate at high load, but there is uncertainty in the end market. Overall, polyester Enterprise inventory pressure is still a big hidden danger.
From the analysis of ethylene glycol supply and demand, supply pressure will exist for a long time, and import volume will gradually increase. Although the accumulation of stocks in May is not expected to be large, with the end of the maintenance period and The supply of new production capacity is stable and domestic production will increase significantly. However, most of the downstream polyester is purchased based on rigid demand, and the status of orders in the end market is unclear, and there is insufficient demand support. It is expected that the ethylene glycol market will remain weak in May, with the price range in the East China market ranging from 4,600 to 4,950 yuan/ton. </p
