At the end of 2020, the price of the main iron ore futures contract exceeded the 1,000 yuan/ton mark, which once aroused great concern in the market. However, recently, the iron ore futures price has reached a record high of 1,110 yuan/ton, and there are only a few voices of exclamation.
For more than a year, the market seems to have been surprised by the abnormal performance of the commodity market. Strange. The price of Shanghai aluminum futures has risen from more than 11,000 yuan/ton to over 18,000 yuan/ton. Recently, many black commodities, including thermal coal and iron ore, have hit stage or historic highs. The commodity market has been affected by the epidemic. The effect is direct and clear. Traditional industries such as steel and electrolytic aluminum that have been criticized before have also been favored by the market due to their huge profits and the concept of “procyclical”.
Carnival upstream, cool downstream
Hot at the top and cold at the bottom The polyester industry chain is worth thinking about
After the May Day holiday, the carnival of bulk commodities also directly drove the polyester raw material market, and the favorable macro support became the main factor leading to the continued strength of prices. thrust.
In addition to the upstream carnival, we need to see that from the perspective of the price performance of the industry chain, May Day After the holidays, prices in the ethylene glycol industry chain are mostly rising. However, from the perspective of industry classification, almost all of the larger price increases are concentrated in upstream raw material-related fields, while there is no obvious increase in downstream related fields closer to terminal consumer demand. Price increased.
In detail, coal prices have risen most rapidly, with the overall market and pit coal price increases exceeding 10%. From the perspective of the industrial chain, raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have also increased. The prices have increased to varying degrees, and the raw materials have increased significantly recently. The profits of polyester factories have obviously fed back the raw materials.
As the PTA processing fee has risen to a high after the year (the current processing fee is 530 yuan/ton), the recent market growth has been limited; ethylene glycol counterattacked and became The leader of this market rally. However, polyester filament, which is the largest in the industry, has basically not responded significantly. Even after the holiday, many polyester factories started sales promotions to sell silk, with price reductions of 100-300 yuan/ton.
In recent months, polyester factories have launched five polyester filament sales promotions, and the five times were on 4.12, 4.22, 4.29, 5.7 and 5.11 respectively. Costs have increased, but polyester factories have once again started promotional shipments. This situation is indeed worth thinking about.
There is no obvious return of orders
The weaving operation rate is declining
In the final analysis, the main reason for such frequent price reduction promotions by polyester raw material factories is that overall production and sales are not prosperous. More weaving companies are unwilling to buy into the lackluster performance of price reduction promotions by raw material factories. Except for the “one-day tour” purchases driven by promotions, production and sales during the rest of the period basically remained at a low level of 40-60%. In the context of no significant increase in terminal orders, the carnival may only be in the upstream. The closer to the terminal, the more worried about the downstream acceptance.
The overall recent market situation is generally the feeling of most textile people, and most textile companies say that the current orders for home textiles and elastic fabrics are relatively good. However, the number of textile companies on the market that produce and process elastic fabrics or have customers for home textiles and elastic fabrics is limited. In the absence of hot-selling varieties, most textile companies are unable to feel the peak season. In addition, most textile companies report that the recent epidemic in India has not significantly brought back orders.
The gold, silver, and silver markets have ended, terminal demand has not exceeded expectations, and insufficient follow-up on new orders has restricted factories’ willingness to purchase raw materials. The operating rate of most textile clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted back, with the comprehensive operating rate falling from 86% in April to around 82% currently.
Be wary of the terminal cost risks behind the “rise” of commodities
At present, the cost pressure on midstream and downstream enterprises has become prominent, and the wave of price increases may be passed down gradually.
“Profits are really too thin, especially this year!” A boss in the textile industry lamented, “Last year, corporate profit margins were still 10%, but now they are only 10%. 2%.” In his view, no matter which factor it is, the most fundamental reason for the huge loss of profits can be attributed to the four words “unpredictability”.
Yes, unpredictable! The prices of various raw materials are increasing, and the fluctuation range is extremely large. Companies are taking risks when doing business. So many people ask, why don’t companies increase prices?
“Our contract prices are all based on the quotations when we signed the contract. We cannot say that because we are experiencing rising costs, we just tell customers to raise prices. This is not how we do business. !” The business owner said excitedly, “So no matter how much the cost is increased, the company can only bear it by itself. It is good to earn less. Sometimes we will lose money. When the price is uncontrollable, we may choose not to do some orders. Accepted.”
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out at a press conference a few days ago that rising commodity prices and rising global inflation are the result of the gradual recovery of the global economy, short-term adjustments to supply and demand relations, and ample liquidity. As well as the result of the intertwining effects of multiple factors such as speculation and speculation, it has restorative and phased characteristics. bulk commodity supplyThere is no overall or trend change at both ends of demand, and its price does not have the basis for long-term rise.
It is undeniable that the main reasons for the current rise in domestic commodity prices include the market’s speculation on supply-side restrictions, such as the reduction of production capacity due to safety inspections in the coal industry, and the reduction of production capacity in the steel industry. Under the influence of production restriction and emission reduction policies, blast furnace operating rates have dropped significantly, pushing up prices. As my country strives to reach a carbon peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, major strategic decisions are being made. The supply-side compression of bulk commodities, including steel, is expected to increase, which may also cause the market supply and demand pattern to continue to tighten.
It is difficult to sustain price increases for upstream products, but significant price cuts may also be difficult to achieve in the short term. The law of cost pressure transfer in the industrial chain is irreversible. Behind the “rising noise”, we need to be especially vigilant about the cost risks of end products. </p
