According to Fukushima TV, at 7:40 a.m. local time on the 11th (6:40 Beijing time), an explosion occurred at the Sakai Chemical Industry Yumoto Factory in Joban Iwaoka Town, Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. At least four men were injured.
The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.36%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.87%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 0.09%.
EIA’s short-term energy outlook report shows that global crude oil demand growth is expected to be 5.5 million barrels per day in 2021, compared with the previous estimate of 5.5 million barrels per day. Global crude oil demand growth in 2022 is expected to be 3.65 million barrels per day, compared with the previous forecast of 3.65 million barrels per day. The price of WTI crude oil in 2021 is expected to be US$58.91/barrel, compared with the previous expectation of US$58.89/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil in 2021 is expected to be US$62.26/barrel, compared with the previous expectation of US$62.28/barrel.
According to Israeli media, the Israeli energy pipeline between Eilat and Ashkelon was attacked by rockets from Gaza.
The settlement price of WTI June crude oil futures closed up $0.36/barrel, or 0.55%, at $65.28/barrel. Brent July crude oil futures closed up $0.23/barrel, or 0.33%, at $68.55/barrel. The “hacked” oil pipeline will be out of service for several days. U.S. Energy Secretary Granholm said that gasoline supply will face challenges in the next few days. Granholm called on gas station operators to abide by the rules and the federal government will strictly inspect fuel. Price gouging.
Yesterday, responsible comrades from the Ministry of Finance, the Budget Working Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the State Administration of Taxation chaired a symposium on the pilot work of real estate tax reform in Beijing and listened to the opinions of some urban people Opinions of responsible government comrades and some experts and scholars on the pilot work of real estate tax reform.
At the close of trading on Tuesday afternoon, hot coil, thread, iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal all set new historical highs, with thermal coal hitting its daily limit. Glass prices hit record highs. The fatigue of agricultural products is evident, with red dates stuck at the lower limit and live pigs plunging more than 3% to a nearly 4-month low. High-sulfur fuel oil fell 2.63%, and asphalt fell 1.74%. In night trading, glass rose by more than 3%, Zhengzhou Coal, Palm, etc. rose by more than 2%, iron ore rose slightly, coke fell by 2%, and soda ash, plastics, etc. fell slightly.
Industry insiders: Global oil demand is expected to increase significantly by June
The recent trend of crude oil prices has been weaker than that of other commodities. Zhong Meiyan, director of energy and chemical industry of Everbright Futures, told reporters that from a fundamental perspective, there are two There are two important points: first, the supply side has not been restricted by the policy side and has contracted for the time being. Instead, it has shown a moderate growth rhythm after the OPEC+ meeting in early April. Judging from the current market price fluctuations of varieties, in addition to strong demand itself, more price elasticity will come from strong support from the supply side. This is one of the differences between the current crude oil market and other strong industrial products. Second, the overall performance of the demand rhythm has not significantly exceeded expectations. The domestic and overseas demand rhythms are basically in line with expectations. In addition, the Indian epidemic has also added a layer of shackles to the recovery of demand. From the micro-industry level, pay attention to the global crude oil floating inventory and the weekly EIA inventory data in the United States. The recent overall trend is downward, and the market is moving toward the logic of storage, but the overall inventory level remains near the five-year average. Inventory can also be regarded as a reservoir. When the water in the reservoir is deeper, the smoothing effect on prices will also be more obvious.
As for the outlook for the crude oil market outlook, Zhong Meiyan believes that she is optimistic about the overall market outlook for two reasons: First, it is driven by macroeconomic forces. For example, in the current self-fulfilling process of inflation, the general increase in raw material prices drives up the PPI, and the high cost of upstream raw materials is gradually transmitted to all links in the industrial chain, so prices will show a systematic increase. Especially after large-scale easing policies overseas, liquidity has pushed up commodity prices. As one of the commodities, crude oil will inevitably attract the attention of funds. Second, judging from the contradictions of crude oil itself and the conduction of the energy and chemical industry chain, overseas economic recovery, especially Europe and the United States, will usher in a stronger economic recovery in the third quarter. Increased refinery operating rates will drive crude oil to downstream refined oil and chemical industries. product transformation. In addition, from the perspective of industry chain transmission, relatively low raw material prices and costs have caused most of the profits to remain in the midstream and even downstream of the industry since last year. Therefore, the industry’s operating rate will remain at a high level, thereby supporting the demand for crude oil. Zhong Meiyan believes that it is only a matter of time before oil prices rise again. Brent oil may break through 75 US dollars per barrel or even higher again from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter.
Goldman Sachs expects the largest growth in oil demand in history. The commodity market has directly skipped the impact of the outbreak in India. In the next six months, Brent oil prices are expected to Reaching US$80/barrel.
Fiona Cinccota, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, believes that global oil demand is expected to increase significantly by June, from the current 94.5 million barrels per day to the third quarter of 2021. 99 million barrels per day. As vaccinations gather pace in Europe, pent-up travel demand will be further unleashed. In particular, the easing of international travel restrictions in May will lead to a recovery of global aircraft demand of 1.5 million aircraft per day (although still 30% lower than the same period before the epidemic).
It is worth mentioning that Colonial Pipeline Co. was forced to shut down the entire transportation network after encountering a cyber attack last Friday, which further ignited expectations for an increase in oil prices in the short term. The pipeline is for the East China Sea of the United States.�Supplies nearly half of the fuel required.
Fiona Cinccota believes that in the short term, WTI crude oil continues to trade above its two-week upward trend line, and oil prices are testing the upward trend line support of $65/barrel. , if it holds, oil prices may rise to $65.93 per barrel. If it reaches last week’s high of $66.7/barrel, the market outlook may point to the high of $68/barrel on March 14. </p
