The textile peak season in the first half of the year has officially ended. Obviously, the textile market in March and April this year is not worthy of the title of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four”. The market only performed well in the second half of the year, and the hot-selling situation looked like a peak season. However, after entering mid-to-late March, the growth in the operating rates of weaving and printing and dyeing began to slow down significantly. Entering May, the weaving machine start-up rate has dropped for four consecutive weeks. According to monitoring, in early April, the loom start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached the highest value since the Spring Festival. However, such a high start-up rate lasted only a short time, and the start-up rate of most clusters They have been falling for more than two weeks in a row. The latest statistics show that at the end of April, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 76.05%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.49 percentage points.
Raw material promotions have become the norm, and weavers are unwilling to buy them
Recently, polyester factories have launched large sales of polyester filament many times. The main reason for such frequent price reduction promotions by polyester raw material factories is that overall production and sales are not prosperous. Except for the “one-day trip” purchases caused by promotions, production and sales during the rest of the period basically remained at a low level of 40-60%. Many weaving companies are unwilling to buy into the lackluster price cuts and promotions offered by raw material factories.
“There have been several price reductions and promotions for raw materials, but they have not been stocked. The main reason is that there are no orders and there is no need to prepare too much. There are many raw materials, and the current inventory is too large. I feel that the price of raw materials will definitely drop next time.” “The factory did not stock up during the promotion. I don’t want to break the rhythm of stocking up on raw materials. I will only buy them when they are almost used up.”
The few orders in hand and the lack of optimism about the market outlook for raw materials have made many weaving companies not “cold” to price reduction promotions. In other words, it is difficult for the production and sales of raw materials to improve before the market improves. Sluggish production and sales leave raw material factories with no motivation to increase prices. Since the end of April, we have experienced multiple promotions and increased sales. Although the pressure on corporate inventory is limited, the inventory has shown an increase. In terms of polyester filament POY, as of May 8, the factory inventory was 16 days old, which is 16 days higher than the inventory at the end of April. An increase of 1.5 days, an increase of 10.34%.
The polyester industry has started large-scale equipment production reduction and maintenance!
Affected by the rapid decline in profits and poor performance of terminal demand, starting from late April, the domestic polyester industry has successively reduced production and overhauled equipment, starting with polyester staple fiber and ending with Nowadays, the domestic polyester industry has ushered in a new round of production reduction and maintenance period for chips and polyester filament FDY.
Table 1 List of recent production reductions and maintenance equipment in the domestic polyester industry
According to Long According to statistics from Zhongxin, there are currently 3.677 million tons/year equipment planned to reduce production and maintenance in China, involving a total of 2.535 million tons/year of filament slices and 1.142 million tons/year of short fiber. Among them, 3.272 million tons of production have been reduced and overhauled per year, involving many domestic mainstream polyester manufacturers. In the future, many polyester factories such as Huahong, Sanfangxiang, and Yizheng Chemical Fiber are also planning to reduce production and overhaul.
Figure 1 Daily load data of the domestic polyester industry in 2020-2021
Judging from the start-up data of the polyester industry, after experiencing early production cuts and maintenance, the load of the domestic polyester industry has declined rapidly, and has now fallen below 89%, which is equivalent to the load level of the domestic polyester industry near the beginning of March this year. And compared with the same period last year, the gap is not big.
Figure 2 Daily output data of the domestic polyester industry in 2020-2021
From the perspective of production data, although the daily output data of the domestic polyester industry has declined significantly after experiencing production cuts, it is still at a level above the same period last year.
According to Longzhong Information’s calculations, the average load of the domestic polyester industry will drop to below 90% in May, and the monthly output will also be between 4.91 million and 4.94 million tons under this influence. nearby.
Taken together, the polyester raw material market is mainly subject to fluctuations and adjustments, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has been flat. The new round of production cuts by manufacturers has not caused much fluctuation so far, and the market performance is still relatively tepid. , the inventory in the hands of polyester manufacturers is still above the normal level, and polyester manufacturers will still focus on destocking in the short term.
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