The National Standing Committee once again pays attention to commodity price increases
Within a week, the National Standing Committee The second “roll call” of commodity price increases!
On May 19, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress once again paid attention to the increase in commodity prices. It was the second time within a week that it expressed its position, focusing on the issue of commodity prices, and released a strong Signal. The Standing Committee of the State Council requires that abnormal transactions and malicious speculation be investigated, and monopoly, price gouging and other behaviors be severely investigated and punished.
The State Council executive meeting made arrangements to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities and maintain the smooth operation of the economy.
The meeting pointed out that since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors, mainly international transmission, the prices of some bulk commodities have continued to rise, and the prices of some varieties have reached new highs. We must attach great importance to the adverse effects of rising commodity prices, focus on key and comprehensive policies in response to market changes, ensure the supply of bulk commodities, curb unreasonable price increases, and strive to prevent transmission to consumer prices.
First, we must take multiple measures to strengthen two-way regulation of supply and demand. We will persist in expanding opening up to the outside world, strengthen the regulation of imports, exports and reserves of bulk commodities, promote customs clearance facilitation, make better use of two markets and two resources, and enhance our ability to ensure supply and stabilize prices.
Second, we must strengthen market supervision. Give full play to the role of industry associations and strengthen industry self-discipline. Strengthen joint supervision of futures and spot markets, take targeted measures in a timely manner, and investigate abnormal transactions and malicious speculation. Acts such as reaching monopoly agreements, spreading false information, driving up prices, especially hoarding, will be severely investigated and punished in accordance with the law and publicly exposed.
Third, we must maintain the stability of monetary policy and the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and reasonably guide market expectations.
As the National Council once again paid attention to rising commodity prices, and the Federal Reserve minutes were hawkish, panic spread, dragging down commodity prices.
On May 20, domestic commodities plummeted on a large scale and once again encountered a downward trend. Zhengzhou Coal and Coking Coal closed their lower limits, hot coils and wire rods hit their lower limits, and all black lines In terms of diving, thread, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and hot coil all fell by more than 4%, all of which have eroded the gains after May Day. The energy and chemical sector also fell significantly, with methanol and SC crude oil falling by nearly 4%, and soda ash and PVC falling by more than 3%. According to price monitoring by relevant agencies, since May 12, the prices of nearly 100 raw materials in the spot market have declined.
High-level executives intensively “proclaim” bulk commodities
What’s the reason?
After sorting out, it was found that since late April, senior officials have paid close attention to the rise of commodities.
On April 20, Huang Libin, spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believed that the rising cost of raw materials has driven up the price of bulk commodities, and the recovery of production in downstream industries has created a tight supply and demand situation. , non-ferrous metals, some chemical products and other outstanding financial attributes, and improved global economic expectations have boosted the activity of global futures trading. Short-term speculation in the financial market also has a magnifying effect on price increases.
In the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to strengthen operational monitoring and price supervision, cooperate with relevant departments to resolutely crack down on monopolistic markets, malicious speculation and other behaviors, and support upstream and downstream enterprises to establish Long-term stable cooperative relationship, collaborative response to market price fluctuation risks.
On May 12, Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting required that domestic and international situations and market changes should be tracked and analyzed to effectively respond to the rapid rise in commodity prices. and its associated effects. Strengthen the coordination of monetary policy and other policies to maintain stable economic operation.
On May 17, Jiang Yuan, deputy director of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the next step, effective measures should continue to be taken to deal with the excessive rise in commodity prices and Its associated impact will alleviate corporate cost pressures.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on May 17 that from a domestic perspective, in the short term, international Rising commodity prices have pushed up raw material prices in some domestic upstream industries, which may put certain pressure on the production and operations of some downstream companies. Regarding the impact of rising PPI, as a whole, rising prices are conducive to improving corporate efficiency, but the pressure on downstream industries needs to be paid attention to, and effective measures should be taken to strengthen the regulation of the raw material market and promote the stable and healthy development of enterprises.
On May 18, the National Development and Reform Commission held a May press conference. Jin Xiandong, director of the Political Research Office and spokesman of the commission, said that with the price signals The guiding role of raw material production and circulation continues to be released, and commodity prices will gradually return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. In response to the recent new situations and new issues that have emerged in the field of commodities, in the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to work with relevant departments to continue to strengthen monitoring and early warning, strengthen market supervision, and take targeted measures to effectively maintain market stability.
An industry insider who did not want to be named said that after high-level officials intensively “promoted” commodities, commodity traders��There is indeed a certain degree of correction.
The growth rate of commodities has further accelerated after May Day, mainly due to the combined effects of rising international commodity prices, loose global liquidity, and market expectations. The central bank’s first-quarter monetary policy report stated that there are three main driving factors for the recent rise in global commodity prices: first, the governments of major economies have introduced large-scale stimulus packages, and the market generally expects that total demand will become strong; second, the overseas epidemic has rebounded significantly, and supply There are still constraints on the end, and the demand recovery of the global economy in the post-epidemic era is periodically faster than the recovery of supply; third, the central banks of major economies have implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, and the global liquidity environment continues to be extremely loose.
The impact of rising commodity prices on our country has both advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, it will help improve the profitability of upstream raw material companies and reduce debt risks. On the other hand, it will also lead to The operating costs of mid- and downstream manufacturing industries have increased, affecting industry efficiency. Commodities have experienced a sharp decline recently, the market has cooled down rapidly, and prices have gradually returned to a reasonable range.
The determination to rise too quickly is firm. It is expected that the commodity market will gradually return to the fundamentals of balanced supply and demand, and the growth rate will also fall.
Zheng Cotton fluctuated significantly, and the market was mixed
The National Standing Committee held on May 19 After that, domestic overheated commodities fell across a large area. On May 20, Zheng Cotton’s main force 2109 fell by 130 yuan/ton to 15590 yuan/ton. This is after Zheng Cotton fell below the 16,000 yuan/ton mark last Wednesday and is once again gaming at the key support level of 15,500 yuan/ton.
According to China Yarn Network, while high-level officials are concerned about the increase in commodity prices, relevant departments have released This is a signal to promote the upward trend in agricultural product prices. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce’s Rural Revitalization Leading Group meeting was held, conveying the message of further promoting the upward trend of agricultural products to help smooth the domestic cycle. The market responded strongly and the bullish sentiment on agricultural products increased. On May 21, Zheng Cotton’s main force 2109 rose sharply, rising 475 yuan, closing At 16,065 yuan/ton, the futures price has exceeded the 16,000 mark, and the large fluctuations in cotton futures prices have had a great impact on the market.
On May 21, in the futures market, textile people expressed their confusion
Faced with the recent large fluctuations in Zheng Mian, the mentality of all parties in the market is quite different. Some cotton-related manufacturing companies and trading companies are optimistic, mainly due to the sharp drop in futures prices and a large number of transactions at basis differentials, which provides support for the continued purchase and sale work. For some textile companies, raw materials can be purchased at relatively low prices, which facilitates their spread of production costs and provides an opportunity for short-term stocking.
Some trading companies and textile companies also said that the price of cotton has bottomed out again. For companies that sell cotton at a fixed price or yarn mills that have already stocked up, Invisibly caused a certain loss. Furthermore, if Zheng Cotton continues to fall sharply, it will inevitably cause downstream products to follow suit, and it will take some time until the profits of the entire industry chain are balanced again. This period will also cause the profits of some textile companies to shrink from existing orders. Therefore, Zheng Mian’s recent wide-ranging adjustments have made the mixed atmosphere of joy and worry among all parties in the market more prominent.
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