Domestic supply is shrinking and port inventories are low. However, new production capacity is concentrated and put into production. Maintenance equipment is about to restart. The forward supply increase is clear. The ethylene glycol market Long and short swings.
There are many domestic installations undergoing maintenance, and the operating load continues to decline
Recently, domestic ethylene glycol installations Maintenance table:
Domestic B2 since May The alcohol plant has entered the maintenance period. Tongliao Jinmei has been temporarily shut down for 5 days due to plant failure, and Sanjiang and Yangba have carried out load reduction operations. As of now, the overall domestic operating load has dropped to 59.35%, down 10.2% from the high point during the year. Daily Production is reduced by about 5,000 tons.
Main port inventory declines, spot liquidity is tight
Inventory changes in East China’s main ports Picture:
Due to the decline in domestic production, the main The delivery situation at the port is good. On the other hand, the arrival situation at the main port has been poor recently. The inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China has dropped significantly. As of now, the inventory at the main port in East China is only 507,700 tons. There is no expectation of accumulation in May. . Only about 130,000 tons are expected to arrive at the main port next week. According to the current shipment situation at the main port, the probability of short-term inventory accumulation is small, and low inventory operations are still maintained.
For the newly invested equipment, the satellite petrochemical industry has been operating stably, and the load has reached about 80%. In addition, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hubei Sanning, and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan are more likely to be put into operation in early June. At this time, most maintenance equipment will also be restarted one after another, and the expectation for domestic supply increase is relatively clear.
Demand: The situation of terminal orders this year is not clear, and the performance of domestic trade is also tepid, and the inventory of polyester end is still in accumulation. . In recent times, due to concerns about inventory, some companies have adjusted their operating loads. The overall polyester load has dropped to around 88.3%, which is about 3% lower than the high point during the year. With the arrival of summer, it is more difficult to increase the terminal load, and it is more difficult to increase the load transmitted to the polyester end.
Taken together, short-term spot liquidity is tight, coupled with end-of-month delivery issues, it is reasonable for the spot price of ethylene glycol to be strong. However, as time goes by, increasing supply coupled with poor demand will still put the domestic ethylene glycol market under greater pressure.
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