PTA has always been a hot topic in the futures chemical industry, and its trading flexibility is also very huge. In the recent period, as the differentiation rhythm of the commodity market has become more prominent, the chemical sector has returned to a relatively strong market in the near future. Among them, PTA released four positive lines in succession last week, repeatedly pushing higher and higher.
Last Friday, the main PTA futures contract turned around, falling by more than 3%, refreshing June 11 A new low since.
What is the “mysterious force” that drives PTA to rise rapidly and plummet?
The editor believes that the early rise in PTA prices was no accident. Under the collision of various factors, sparks appeared in PTA prices.
On the one hand, with the popularization of COVID-19 vaccines and the improvement of the global epidemic situation, many European and American countries have relaxed controls, and fuel oil demand has increased. . Although international crude oil prices have corrected due to expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as the global COVID-19 vaccination rate increases, the demand side of crude oil continues to improve.
At the same time, the PX device has not changed much. Shanghai Petrochemical has restarted, Fuhua Group has declined slightly, Fujia Dahua has postponed its maintenance, and Dongying Weilian Petrochemical (Fuhai) will have maintenance at the end of June and July. , CNOOC Huizhou’s production capacity of 950,000 tons is restarting, and there are many PTA maintenance, the expected price increase of PX accumulated storage is limited. Although the increase in international crude oil prices has driven up the price of PX, the increase in PTA has not been as high as that of PX, so PTA processing fees are still compressed. However, the pressure on PX inventory accumulation is not great, and the cost side still supports PTA prices.
On the other hand, the stable operating rate of polyester downstream has given PTA a certain degree of support. Recently, the operating rate of polyester has been in the upper range of 90%. Fujian Jingwei and Fujian Yijin The production of other equipment has been reduced, and the load of Jinlun and Hengyi has increased. It is estimated that the polyester operating rate will be above 90% in late June, and the overall stability will be maintained. In addition, PTA warehouse receipts continue to decrease, and spot supply in some areas is still tight. According to CCF data, on June 11, the PTA operating rate was 79.3%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous week. The decrease in operating rate this time is mainly due to the shutdown of Sanfangxiang’s 1.2 million tons/year PTA unit for technical renovation and the follow-up shutdown of Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PTA maintenance on June 6, which basically continued the previous maintenance pace. , causing PTA’s short-term start-up to fall slightly. The continued low processing difference drags down the PTA operating rate and provides support for prices.
However, at the same time, supply has declined in the short term, but there are expectations for an increase in the future. This is due to the supply reduction caused by the follow-up of the 1.2 million tons/year PTA plant technical renovation in Sanfangxiang and the follow-up maintenance of Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PTA plant as well as the pace of maintenance. Therefore, the continued reduction of short-term inventories is another major driver of the recent price rebound. But looking forward, with the expiration and restart of Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000 tons/year PTA unit some time ago and the restart of Yisheng Ningbo’s 2.2 million tons/year PTA unit, supply pressure is expected to gradually return. At the same time, there are variables when the maintenance of Liwan Polyester’s 700,000 tons/year PTA unit is due. On June 16, the maintenance of Yadong Petrochemical’s 750,000 tons/year PTA unit will be completed and restarted. Therefore, it is expected that the subsequent PTA operating rate will gradually pick up, or to 83%-85%, which will inevitably suppress the current price.
In addition, because the PTA downstream polyester field is still in the off-season of the industry as a whole, according to relevant research report data, the recent polyester production and sales are not very optimistic. From a terminal perspective, the comprehensive startup load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has recently remained at around 71.83%, a slight decrease of 1.32% from last week. Among them, the market performance of Shengze Textile City market is not smooth, and the local gray fabric shipment speed has slowed down. Although orders have been placed, prices have been reduced. Therefore, the downstream polyester demand performance is not optimistic, and there may be some restrictions on price increases in the future. Rush.
So the change in polyester operating rate in July mainly comes from changes in profits. If profits are further diluted, the polyester industry will face the choice of raising prices or shutting down production.
To sum up, the stable start-up rate of polyester downstream and the strong international crude oil price have given PTA a certain degree of support. In addition, PTA warehouse receipts continue to decrease, and spot prices in some areas The supply is still tight, and the processing gap continues to be low, dragging down the PTA operating rate. The judgment on PTA destocking is temporarily maintained. However, the expected launch of new production capacity continues to suppress the growth of PTA, and the actual launch time of subsequent new production capacity will have a negative impact on the PTA market. </p
