Powell reiterated his dovish stance, and the three major U.S. indexes collectively closed higher
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attended a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives. He reiterated his dovish stance at the meeting. The Fed will continue to promote a broad and comprehensive recovery of the job market and will not raise interest rates ahead of schedule just because of concerns about soaring inflation.
When talking about the issue of interest rate hikes that the market is most concerned about, Powell said that the Fed will not preemptively raise interest rates because of concerns about possible inflation, but will wait patiently for actual inflation or other Evidence of imbalance.
Some members asked whether the Federal Reserve would accept an inflation rate of 5%. Powell rejected this figure. He said that the impact of economic restart on inflation would be greater than expected, but as time passes, Over time, the factors causing rising inflation will gradually dissipate. Powell also pledged that if inflation continues to rise, the Fed will take action if necessary.
The U.S. Congress requires the Federal Reserve to ensure full employment and stabilize prices. However, while inflation is rising, recent employment growth in the United States has also been lower than expected, so much so that some Federal Reserve officials said that before the Fed It may be unrealistic to expect employment to return to pre-pandemic levels before tightening monetary policy.
As of early morning closing this morning, the three major U.S. indexes collectively closed higher. The Dow Jones index rose 0.20% to 33945.58 points; the S&P 500 index rose 0.51% to 4246.43 points; Nasdaq rose 0.51% to 4246.43 points; The Dak Index rose 0.79% to 14253.27 points.
It is worth mentioning that there are market rumors that OPEC+ will discuss further easing crude oil production restrictions starting in August. Russia expects to see global oil supply shortages in the medium term and is considering proposing an OPEC+ production increase next week. The API crude oil inventory report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.199 million barrels last week, the fifth consecutive week of unexpected declines. As of the close early this morning, international oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil rising 0.00% and Brent crude oil falling 0.01%. Non-ferrous metal futures in the external market closed up collectively, with CME copper up 1.24%, LME copper up 0.97%, LME aluminum up 1.00%, LME zinc up 0.69%, and LME nickel up 1.66%. In terms of precious metal futures, gold fell 0.26% and silver fell 0.60%.
Demand collapse, production restriction disturbances, frequent news… The life of black traders is very brain-burning
Recently, life has been very “sophisticated” for Xiao Ming, a black trader.
Xiao Ming chatted with the reporter privately and said, you see, the current demand is collapsing. According to the fundamentals, the black line is bearish, but you can’t go short if it is bearish, because the production limit policy will be implemented from time to time. When it comes out, it makes traders really have a schizophrenic rhythm…
Xia Xuezhao, a black man from Southwest Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that for rebar, from the perspective of driving , based on the weakening supply and demand side, one should choose to go short, but from the perspective of valuation, the current profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces and independent electric furnaces has been compressed to low levels, and the disk price of rebar futures is close to the spot price of steel billet, which means The downside space is limited. Therefore, the current position is not an ideal range for building a position, and investors can focus on rebound short selling opportunities.
At present, the trend of black series is divided. Coking coal has become the strongest variety in black series, while other varieties have shown a weak oscillation trend recently.
“As the leading variety of black steel, the supply and demand side of rebar has gradually weakened in the near future. From the supply side, the weekly production of rebar has increased month-on-month. In the latest week The output has exceeded 3.8 million tons. From the demand side, the spot market has entered the off-season for consumption, and the national building materials transaction volume has declined month-on-month. Against the background of increasing supply and declining demand, the total inventory of rebar has accumulated. At present, The total inventory level of rebar is at the highest level in the same period in history.” Xia Xuezhao said.
Haitong Futures researcher Wei Junyi believes that the current downstream demand for steel is showing signs of weakening. Real estate data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in May was average, with weak growth in new housing starts. While crude steel production remained high, steel prices fell sharply in May. The raw material side benefited from high iron production and remained strong. Therefore, we see that in June, whether it is iron ore or coking coal, the trend is significantly stronger than that of rebar and hot-rolled coil.
“Usually mid-June to mid-July is the rainy season in the south, which will affect steel consumption. In previous years, steel mills would also take the initiative to limit production, so steel prices during this period in previous years were mostly Mainly low oscillations. The situation this year is slightly different. There is news that some steel mills in Tangshan are preparing to resume production after limiting production for several months, while other regions have not implemented strict environmental protection production restrictions. Although rebar profits in East and West China Turned negative, but companies have accumulated a lot of cash due to high profits before, and are not willing to limit production in the face of falling steel prices.” Wei Junyi said.
It is understood that the weekly thread production increased by 87,200 tons last week, the total inventory increased by 364,600 tons, and the apparent consumption fell by 224,400 tons to 3.4354 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 391,000 tons. Ton. Weekly output increased significantly, and total inventory increased for the second consecutive week, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. Apparent consumption dropped significantly month-on-month and was lower than the same period in 2019. The overall data performance was poor. Hot coil production fell by 4,500 tons this week, total inventory increased by 121,000 tons, and table demand decreased by 111,600 tons month-on-month to 3.2794 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 56,100 tons. hot rollIt is about 675,600 tons, and port stocks may be accumulated this week. “Overall, methanol may present a weak supply and demand situation in the near future. Cost support and the impact of market sentiment have become the main theme of the recent methanol market. In the short term, investors need to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and coal prices on methanol, as well as the later start-up time of new methanol units at home and abroad. , the profit situation of methanol to olefins and the impact of policies on the methanol market.” said Liu Mengmeng, an energy chemical researcher at Huishang Futures.
With the decline in PTA processing fees and the increase in crude oil prices, PTA prices have rebounded significantly. As of June 21, PTA’s operating rate was 82.14%, and its maintenance capacity reached 10.365 million tons. “The operating rate of demand-side polyester plants remains at a high level of around 90%. There will still be many PTA plant overhauls in June and demand remains stable. Therefore, PTA will temporarily maintain the destocking judgment in June.” Xie Wen, analyst at the Zhongda Futures Research Institute explain.
It is understood that the 3.3 million-ton unit of Yisheng New Materials restarted testing last week and will produce products in the near future. The new supply may break the current situation of PTA destocking, tight supply in some production areas, and substantial cancellation of warehouse receipts, which will be negative for PTA prices. It is worth noting that the current PTA processing fee has dropped back to around 450 yuan/ton. Too low PTA processing fees may accelerate the adjustment of PTA production capacity. That is, too low processing fees may lead to an increase in PTA device maintenance expectations, which is bullish for the market. From the cost side, as demand recovers, crude oil prices are on an upward channel, PX prices rise, and cost side support remains.
Xie Wen believes that recently, the polyester industry’s price-for-volume promotion policy has caused polyester companies to destock their warehouses one after another. With the recovery of overseas demand, orders for autumn and winter have appeared sporadically, and it is expected that It is estimated that short-term polyester demand is still at a high level. On the supply side, there are still many maintenance and repairs. Even if the new production capacity impacts the market price, PTA is still suppressed. However, due to the strong crude oil price and low processing fees, the market estimates that the subsequent maintenance rate may rise again, and PTA prices The downside may be limited.
“At present, there is no obvious positive sentiment in PTA fundamentals. The current core logic is still on the cost side. Stronger oil prices have raised the focus. In the short term, PTA may strengthen following cost fluctuations. Pay attention to oil prices and maintenance conditions. It is recommended to operate short and long based on the rolling oil price.” Liu Mengmeng said. </p
