OPEC+ may propose to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day next week?
OPEC+ is considering increasing the group’s crude output by about 500,000 barrels a day when it meets next week, and is likely to keep it at similar levels in the coming months. Increased production will slightly boost global crude oil supply.
OPEC+ has previously agreed to increase production from May to July by a total of about 2 million barrels per day, and the organization will hold its next meeting on July 1 to discuss the future Yield policy for several months. But representatives also said that OPEC+ is very cautious about increasing production because they are worried about uncertain demand caused by an uneven global economic recovery.
The latest EIA inventory report released last night showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 7.614 million barrels last week to 459.1 million barrels, a decrease of 1.6%; production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 11.1 million barrels /day.
In addition, the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in June was 62.6, a record high. As of early morning closing today, the U.S. S&P 500 index fell 0.11%, the European Stoxx50 index fell 0.91%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.10%. In terms of external commodity futures, WTI crude oil rose 0.27%, Brent crude oil rose 0.89%, CME copper rose 2.07%, LME copper rose 2.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.33%, LME zinc rose 1.28%, LME nickel rose 1.47%, and gold fell 0.01 %, and silver rose 0.39%.
Yellen: The inflation rate in the United States will be less than 5% by the end of 2021
Beijing time In the early morning of June 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the U.S. inflation rate will be less than 5% by the end of 2021, and the Fed’s adjustment to the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) is a technical adjustment. The Fed made it clear that its monetary policy stance has not changed at all. In addition, when asked about the approaching debt ceiling deadline, Yellen said that a default on the national debt should be considered “unthinkable” and urged that the debt ceiling be raised or suspended before the deadline. He also said that the United States may reach a debt default point in August.
Federal Reserve official Kaplan said that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 2022, and inflation will ease in 2022, but the scope will expand. PCE inflation is expected to be 3.4% in 2021 and slow to 2.4% in 2022. The U.S. economy may reach the threshold for the Fed to taper its asset purchases sooner than expected.
The National Development and Reform Commission continues to pay attention to the issue of ensuring supply and stable prices of commodities
Regulators have been paying attention to the issue of commodity prices. The problem of ensuring supply and stable prices caused by the rapid rise of commodities.
Recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration for Market Regulation sent multiple joint working groups to relevant provinces and cities to investigate the issue of ensuring supply and stable prices of bulk commodities. The working group will learn in detail about the participation of relevant enterprises in commodity futures spot market transactions, carefully listen to the reflections of mid- and downstream enterprises on upstream supply quantity and price changes, as well as suggestions on combating speculation and ensuring market supply, and listen to relevant experts and market institutions’ opinions on the situation. Opinions on strengthening joint supervision of futures and spot markets and maintaining normal market order.
Supply shrinks, coking coal and coke continue to rise
The release of policy risk sentiment at the beginning of this week After that, coking coal prices continued to rise and reached the previous high on June 23. Founder mid-term futures black analyst Hao Xiaoxiao told a reporter from Futures Daily that the main driver of rising coking coal prices still comes from the supply side.
“In the context of the current tightening of production safety supervision, the number of coal mines in my country’s main production areas that have suspended production and restricted production has increased, the supply of raw coal has shrunk, and the spot price of main coking coal has continued to rise. The futures price has strong support. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic in Mongolia, the customs clearance vehicles at the two main ports for importing Mongolian coal (Ganqimaodu Port and Ceke Port) continue to remain low. Mongolian coal resources continue to be tight, and marginal supply increases. The quantity is limited,” Hao Xiaoxiao said.
Tao Rui, director of the black industry group of China Merchants Futures, also told the Futures Daily reporter that coking coal has always faced a fragile supply and demand environment after the shortage of Australian coal. Recently, it has even further superimposed the Mongolian coal customs clearance. The dual supply contraction impact of the return to zero and the expansion of the scope of internal mine suspension and production restrictions before mid-July, while the coke oven operation on the demand side remains high despite the high profit background. Therefore, the gap between supply and demand continues to exist, and the gap has even expanded. “If coal mines do not resume production smoothly after mid-July, we are likely to see the rare phenomenon of ‘lack of coal forcing coke ovens to shut down’ this year.”
Overall Specifically, Hao Xiaoxiao believes that due to the current tightening of coal mine safety supervision and restrictions on customs clearance of Mongolian coal, the tight supply of main coking coal will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and coking coal will still be strong in the short term.
In terms of coking coal, Hao Xiaoxiao believes that from the cost side, the current coal mine safety supervision is becoming stricter, and it is difficult to ease the supply of main coking coal. The cost of purchasing coking coal for coking companies has increased, and the cost side still supports it. exist. From the supply side, currently some areas in Shanxi, Hebei, and Shandong have implemented relatively strict environmental protection production restrictions, and the operating rate of coking enterprises has declined slightly. At the same time, dry quenching coke resources are tight. Most coke companies have started the first round of price increases, and the scope of price increases has gradually expanded. There is no clear response from the mainstream market, but there has been a change in mentality. In addition, relevant data shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel plants surveyed by Mysteel last week was 80.34%, and the average daily hot metal production was 2.4401 million tons. From the perspective of hot metal production, there is still strong support on the demand side.
Tao Rui believes that the current supply and demand pattern of coke cannot withstand traders’ restocking or an increase in export purchases. In addition, the news that “Shanxi has suspended the approval of new coke oven projects” spread over the weekend has further made subsequent production difficult.Bewildered. If the production intensity is low, the shift in coke supply and demand can only depend on the reduction of blast furnace production. The reduction of blast furnace production in the later period may be a risk worthy of attention. In addition, it is certain that the near-end supply and demand of coke is strong.
Overall, Hao Xiaoxiao believes that coke supply has a partial downward trend, downstream demand maintains high, and cost support remains, and coke will still operate strongly in the short term. However, the current profits of downstream steel mills remain low. The low profits of steel mills do not support the continued rise of coke prices. </p
