At the 2021 China International Cotton Conference, Wang Jianhong, vice president and secretary-general of the China Cotton Association, said that the domestic cotton situation this year showed stable policies, stable production, rebounding demand, increased imports, relatively stable cotton prices, and a basic balance between supply and demand. . It can be understood that there is no supply and demand gap, no “structural” contradiction, lack of sufficient hype, and sudden rise and fall themes. The Chinese cotton market is expected to smoothly transition from the old to the new year.
So what is the specific situation of supply and demand in the domestic cotton market before the new cotton of 2021/22 is launched in October? The author has made a simple calculation recently, and there is no doubt that cotton supply exceeds demand; but the uncertain factor is the weather conditions in Xinjiang’s cotton areas from June to September. As of now, the cotton growth progress in most cotton areas in Xinjiang lags behind the same period in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, if new cotton cannot be harvested, processed and put on the market in time in October, domestic cotton supply and demand may show a tight balance or even a structural gap in 2020/21.
1. The total domestic supply from June to September was approximately 4.4567 million tons. First of all, according to statistics from the Cotton Logistics Branch of the China Cotton Association, as of the end of May, the total cotton turnover inventory nationwide was approximately 2.6894 million tons, a decrease of 540,300 tons from the previous month (of which the commodity cotton turnover inventory of 43 warehouses in Xinjiang was 1.9701 million tons); secondly, as of May On the 31st, there were 19,230 Zheng cotton warehouse receipts, equivalent to approximately 817,300 tons of lint cotton (each batch is calculated as 42.5 tons); thirdly, my country’s total cotton imports from June to September 2021 were approximately 950,000 tons. According to customs data, my country’s cotton imports in May 2021 were 173,200 tons; the cumulative imports from January to May 2021 were 1.3712 million tons (an average of 274,200 tons per month); in 2020/21 (2020.9-2021.5), my country’s cotton imports were 234.09 million tons (an average of 260,100 tons per month). Considering that the 700,000 tons sliding tax cotton import quota in 2021 is about to be issued, the author estimates that foreign cotton imports from June to September will be 950,000 tons. Therefore, without considering the rotation of reserve cotton to increase circulation resources and the new cotton market volume before the end of September in 2021/22, the total cotton resources available from June to September are 268.94+81.73+95=4.4567 million tons;
From June to September, domestic cotton consumption was about 2.7-3 million tons. According to the latest forecast from the China Cotton Association, total domestic cotton consumption in 2020/21 will be approximately 8.1 million tons, with an average of 675,000 tons per month; USDA’s latest monthly report predicts that China’s cotton consumption this year will be as high as 8.6 million tons, with an average of 675,000 tons per month. 716,700 tons, so if we limit the average of the two, my country’s cotton consumption from June to September was about 2.8 million tons (some domestic institutions and cotton-related companies believe that there is little hope that domestic cotton consumption will exceed 8 million tons in 2020/21) . In addition, considering that June to August is the relatively off-season for domestic cotton textile production and sales, and the growth momentum of cotton consumption is insufficient, the range of 270-300 tons is more reasonable.
Based on the above two points, from June to September 2021, cotton supply was higher than consumption by about 1.5 million tons. There is no gap problem, but how much Zheng cotton warehouse receipts can flow out? , the proportion of outflow is unknown, and it is likely to become a factor that temporarily affects the supply of mid- to high-grade cotton.
At the 2021 China International Cotton Conference, Wang Jianhong, vice president and secretary-general of the China Cotton Association, said that the domestic cotton situation this year showed stable policies, stable production, rebounding demand, and increased imports. Cotton prices are relatively stable and supply and demand are basically balanced. It can be understood that there is no supply and demand gap, no “structural” contradiction, lack of sufficient hype, and sudden rise and fall themes. The Chinese cotton market is expected to smoothly transition from the old to the new year.
So what is the specific situation of supply and demand in the domestic cotton market before the new cotton of 2021/22 is launched in October? The author has made a simple calculation recently, and there is no doubt that cotton supply exceeds demand; but the uncertain factor is the weather conditions in Xinjiang’s cotton areas from June to September. As of now, the cotton growth progress in most cotton areas in Xinjiang lags behind the same period in 2019 and 2020. Therefore, if new cotton cannot be harvested, processed and put on the market in time in October, domestic cotton supply and demand may show a tight balance or even a structural gap in 2020/21.
1. The total domestic supply from June to September was approximately 4.4567 million tons. First of all, according to statistics from the Cotton Logistics Branch of the China Cotton Association, as of the end of May, the total cotton turnover inventory nationwide was approximately 2.6894 million tons, a decrease of 540,300 tons from the previous month (of which the commodity cotton turnover inventory of 43 warehouses in Xinjiang was 1.9701 million tons); secondly, as of May On the 31st, there were 19,230 Zheng cotton warehouse receipts, equivalent to approximately 817,300 tons of lint cotton (each batch is calculated as 42.5 tons); thirdly, my country’s total cotton imports from June to September 2021 were approximately 950,000 tons. According to customs data, my country’s cotton imports in May 2021 were 173,200 tons; the cumulative imports from January to May 2021 were 1.3712 million tons (an average of 274,200 tons per month); in 2020/21 (2020.9-2021.5), my country’s cotton imports were 234.09 million tons (an average of 260,100 tons per month). Considering that the 700,000 tons sliding tax cotton import quota in 2021 is about to be issued, the author estimates that foreign cotton imports from June to September will be 950,000 tons. Therefore, without considering the rotation of reserve cotton to increase circulation resources and ignoring the new cotton market volume before the end of September in 2021/22, the total cotton resources available from June to September are 268.94+81.73+95=4.4567 million tons;
From June to September, domestic cotton consumption was about 2.7-3 million tons. According to the latest forecast from the China Cotton Association, total domestic cotton consumption in 2020/21 will be approximately 8.1 million tons, with an average of 675,000 tons per month; USDA’s latest monthly report predicts that China’s cotton consumption this year will be as high as 8.6 million tons, with an average of 675,000 tons per month. 716,700 tons. Therefore, if we limit the average of the two, my country’s cotton consumption from June to September is about 2.8 million tons (some domestic institutions and cotton-related enterprises believe that the national cotton consumption in 2020/21��There is little hope that cotton consumption will exceed 8 million tons). In addition, considering that June to August is the relatively off-season for domestic cotton textile production and sales, and the growth momentum of cotton consumption is insufficient, the range of 270-300 tons is more reasonable.
Based on the above two points, from June to September 2021, cotton supply was higher than consumption by about 1.5 million tons. There is no gap problem, but how much Zheng cotton warehouse receipts can flow out? , the proportion of outflow is unknown, and it is likely to become a factor that temporarily affects the supply of mid- to high-grade cotton. </p
