As of the afternoon close of June 29, most domestic commodity futures markets fell. Coke fell by more than 4%; thermal coal fell by more than 3%; No. 20 rubber, PTA, crude oil, fuel oil, soda ash, low-sulfur fuel oil, rubber, coking coal, and iron ore fell by more than 2%. Rapeseed rose by more than 4%; fiberboard, wheat, corn starch, soybean meal, soybean meal, palm oil, rapeseed meal, red dates, corn, and pigs rose by more than 1%.
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve accepted $841.2 billion in fixed-rate reverse repurchases, setting a new record high.
Chemical variety “Green Fertilizer Red Thin”
Rubber market prices weakened again this week, falling sharply on Tuesday, with the main price of Hujiao 2109 closing back below 13,000 yuan/ton. “The main reason for the decline in rubber is that from the perspective of futures prices, during the rebound from the low level last week, the spot price obviously lacked momentum to follow up. The discount of the spot price of mixed rubber to RU2109 expanded from 800 yuan/ton to 1080 Yuan/ton, reflecting the sluggish downstream demand for rubber and weak spot prices. Some tire factories in Shandong were shut down this week, and short-term demand weakened marginally again. The downstream of No. 20 rubber corresponds to tire demand, so the decline is greater than that of Shanghai rubber. Big.” said Zhu Jintao, a rubber analyst at Everbright Futures.
It is reported that the current supply and demand in the market show obvious characteristics of weak supply and increasing demand. On the supply side, Hainan’s phenological conditions are normal this year, rubber trees are growing well, and raw materials are abundantly supplied. However, Yunnan has suffered from powdery mildew, which has delayed the tapping progress. The overall rubber tapping process has been slower than in previous years, but it has basically returned to normal by the end of June. Domestic rubber tapping has basically returned to normal by the end of June. Raw material prices continue to decline. Overseas, glue prices in Thailand have fallen rapidly since June, and production has continued to be released steadily. On the demand side, when terminal demand is sluggish, tire factories are forced to continue to accumulate finished product inventories, which in turn forces tire factories to reduce production. Tire operating rates have fallen sharply since May, and demand has weakened month-on-month.
“The gradual increase in the supply side of natural rubber in the second half of the year is a deterministic event. From historical data, it can be found that the output in the second half of the past five years has increased by 24.6% on average compared with the first half of the year. It is estimated that in the second half of this year Production in the first half of the year increased by 29% compared with the first half of the year, and supply pressure continues unabated.” Zhu Jintao said that the demand side is expected to weaken, and the policy-driven vehicle replacement demand is no longer there. At the same time, the seasonal peak season for heavy truck sales has passed, and heavy truck sales have welcomed At the turning point, the weakening of the supporting market is the biggest worry on the demand side in the later period. In addition, due to the recovery of overseas economies, tire exports due to replacement orders are also facing downward pressure.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Zhu Jintao believes that from the absolute price of natural rubber, the current price has fallen to the bottom range before the impact of the epidemic. After the continued release of negative news, natural rubber has once again The downside is limited. However, due to weak fundamentals and insufficient upward drive, the low oscillation trend may be difficult to improve.
With the increase in PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new equipment, the rise and fall of crude oil prices, and the decline in positions and trading volumes, PTA prices have corrected after rising. On June 29, the main contract of PTA fell by 2.93%, while it rose by 9.51% last week.
Xie Wen, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures, believes that the early rise in PTA prices benefited from the boost on the cost side and the low processing fees. Among them, the PX side is affected by factors such as the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the shutdown of many PX units in East and South China, which leads to a decrease in the operating rate, the PTA operating rate remaining high, and the delay in the commissioning of new units. The price is relatively strong, and the price of PTA rises accordingly. Although processing fees have rebounded, they are still in a low range, so the market still has high expectations for PTA’s operating rate and maintenance volume. Mainstream PTA suppliers have reduced supply, and new production capacity has not been put on the market. Downstream polyester production has started stably. Supply in some areas of PTA is tight, and inventory accumulation is expected to move later.
“There are two main logics for the short-term market decline: First, when the Delta mutant strain poses a threat to the rebound in crude oil demand, the market expects that OPEC+ may be in the upcoming meeting. The decision was made to increase production, and crude oil recorded its largest decline in a week, driving the focus of the chemical market downward; secondly, although the operating rate of the polyester market devices has remained above 90% recently, the operating rate of the terminal weaving industry has been declining, and Judging from the recent transaction volume of China Textile City, the transaction volume has been in a sluggish trend, and the total terminal transaction volume on June 28 fell by 25.97 percentage points from last Friday.” said Zhang Xiao, a chemical analyst at Guoyuan Futures.
These fundamentals have undergone marginal changes this week, which are mainly reflected in the following three points: First, due to good processing profits, many sets of PX devices have been restarted since last week; second, Crude oil prices fell after rising; thirdly, one line of Yisheng New Materials’ new 3.6 million-ton PTA plant is currently in operation. The price of acetic acid fell and the processing fee increased. The processing fee rose to around 600 yuan/ton. Some companies have hedging needs. .
In addition, PTA social inventory has been in a destocking rhythm after the Spring Festival, but judging from the recent destocking speed, the decline has significantly narrowed. According to statistics, as of the end of last week, PTA social inventory reached 2.5504 million tons, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points week-on-week and a narrowing of 0.65 percentage points from the previous week. Moreover, Yisheng’s new material and new equipment was put into operation last week and products will be released in the near future. “The Yizheng Chemical Fiber 650,000-ton unit faces restarting from the end of June to the beginning of July. At that time, supply pressure will continue to rise, suppressing prices. The overall short-term trend is relatively bearish. It is recommended to operate with caution.” Zhang Xiao said.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Xie Wen believes that there are still long opportunities for PTA prices after falling and adjusting.The time point for the new PX equipment to be put into large-scale production has not yet come. Against the background of relatively strong crude oil prices, the cost side still has obvious support for PTA prices. Due to the commissioning of new equipment, PTA processing fees are likely to fall. If it returns below 400 yuan/ton, and some equipment is shut down at a loss, the amount of PTA maintenance will increase, and the operating rate is expected to decrease. In addition, mainstream suppliers have obviously raised prices, supply is tight in some areas, and warehouse receipts are low. The downstream polyester industry has destocked due to promotional factors, and the operating rate remains above 90%. Supply and demand are stable, and short-term PTA is still expected to destock. Therefore, when the price of crude oil is relatively strong, PTA has obvious support on the cost side, and maintenance is expected to be obvious after the processing fee falls. PTA will still destock and do long opportunities at this stage. The timing of entry needs to wait for the processing fee to fall back to 400 yuan/ton. Comprehensive judgment based on crude oil prices.
On Tuesday, soda ash continued its decline on Monday, falling below 2,200 yuan/ton, mainly because raw material and fuel costs accounted for more than 70% of the production costs of soda ash companies. The recent sharp drop in coal prices has driven its cost center downwards, resulting in a decline in short-term price focus. “However, currently, companies in certain areas of soda ash are experiencing slightly tight supply due to reduced installation loads and are temporarily suspending orders. In July, China Salt Kunshan’s 800,000-ton joint alkali plant plan and Shandong Haihua’s old line 1.2 million-ton ammonia-alkali plant were planned respectively. It is planned to shut down for maintenance for 10 days on July 6th and 11th. At that time, the inventory will continue to show a downward trend. From a downstream perspective, the enthusiasm of downstream users of light soda ash to pick up goods is average, and the downstream demand performance of heavy soda ash is acceptable. Individual float glass The ignition of the production line has led to an increase in the use of heavy soda ash. Overall, the domestic soda ash market is stable and improving,” Zhang Xiao said. </p
