Yesterday, a large spandex factory issued another notice that all specifications will increase by another 2,000-3,000 yuan/ton, and it will be implemented today!
Overall, the raw material end of spandex has stabilized and rebounded, and downstream terminal demand has not decreased. In addition, the third quarter has entered the traditional peak season of the industry. The trend of spandex is good, and the current factory inventory As low as less than 15 days, especially the spot supply of fine denier continues to be tight, supporting the strong operation of the market. After two consecutive weeks of continuous rise, it can be judged that the early low-price supply has been almost exhausted, and the market may enter a new round of stocking stage. , the average market price of spandex may be approaching the 80,000 yuan mark. As the price of spandex increases, the price of elastic fabrics will also rise!
Since the beginning of this year, the domestic spandex market has risen rapidly. As of March 7, 40D spandex has increased by nearly 70% compared with the beginning of the year, and then fell slightly and adjusted. The rising market started again in mid-May, climbing to a 10-year high. As of June 28, the price was 75,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 138.10%.
Current mainstream price statistics in the spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)
Supply continues to be tight, especially in June. The spandex industry’s operating start-up remains at a high level of around 90%. Although production capacity remains stable, inventory levels continue to fall to historical lows. According to statistics, as of June 25, the spandex social inventory level was approximately 8 days, 40 days less than the same period last year, and the decline was About 83%, some manufacturers said that they only have 3-5 days of stock, and some even said that there is no inventory pressure at the moment. Some manufacturers said that only some batch numbers are in stock, and other regular batch numbers are not in stock, and there are even new customers. It takes 1-2 weeks to place an order.
Since the outbreak, consumers around the world have generally spent more time at home. Correspondingly, the demand for casual and sportswear products has increased. Spandex is woven into various types of light and thin materials. , an important raw material for elastic fabrics with strong comfort, and the spandex content of these garments is generally high, which drives the demand for spandex to increase. According to statistics on the start of looms in Zhejiang, as of June 24, circular knitting machines and warp knitting The operating levels were 61% and 87% respectively, an increase of 11 and 17 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year.
At the same time, spandex exports have increased because some foreign markets have not yet fully recovered due to the impact of the epidemic, so orders have shifted domestically. Exports in the first five months were approximately 40,500 tons, an increase of 58% over the same period last year. The dual benefits of domestic demand and export sales have promoted the development of the spandex industry.
In addition, the strong rise in raw materials is also an important reason for the rise in spandex prices. Affected by environmental protection this year, the PTMEG industry chain is booming. The PTMEG market price of 1800 molecular weight supply mainstream factories is offering around 38,000 yuan/ton. , while the mainstream quotation in the same period last year was 14,000-15,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream negotiation in the East China market for pure MDI was 19,600-20,000 yuan/ton in barrels by wire transfer, and the quotation in the same period last year was 13,600-14,200 yuan/ton in barrels by wire transfer.
Business News analysts believe that the tight supply of spandex itself will be difficult to improve in the short term. Although the current raw material market has cooled down, prices are still obviously at a high level, and PTMEG is under pressure from environmental protection management in the coal chemical industry, resulting in insufficient resource output and cost support. It is expected that the spandex market will remain at a high level in the short term, and attention will be paid to changes in cost and terminal demand in the future.
Downstream demand is booming, and spandex prices are “flying to the sky”
In the post-epidemic era, with the change in consumption concepts, the market demand for sports and leisure clothing has gradually increased, and elastic fabrics have become the “new favorite” of the market. As the main raw material for elastic fabrics, the price of spandex has also been rising as demand heats up. On June 24, the market prices of spandex 40D and 20D were 72,000 yuan/ton and 95,000 yuan/ton respectively, a cumulative increase of 84.6% and 95.9% from the beginning of the year.
Spandex prices hit a 10-year high, and industry companies are accelerating differentiation. Analysts believe that rising raw material prices and tight supply are the main reasons for the rise in spandex prices. In the short term, before the release of new production capacity at the end of the year, the spandex boom may continue, and the semi-annual results of related companies will exceed expectations. As production capacity is gradually released, the supply tension is expected to ease. In the long term, the application range of spandex will continue to expand and it will have good market prospects.
The demand for spandex is rising and the surge is amazing
Zhuochuang Information data shows , since the beginning of this year, the price of spandex has been on the rise, and has remained at a high level since April. At the end of May, the price of spandex has risen again. The recent trend of spandex has been strong, and it has now reached a record high.
The superposition of multiple factors has caused the price of spandex to rise, and tight supply is the main reason. Zhuo Chuang Capital�Chemical analyst Gong Yuqian said that on the one hand, the spandex raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI increased significantly in the first quarter, and the price of spandex gradually increased under the support of the cost side. On the other hand, the supply of spandex itself is tight, and the downstream demand growth rate is good and the demand is heating up. Aggravating the supply shortage, spandex prices naturally show an upward trend.
The rise in spandex prices did not happen overnight. Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000949, SZ) relevant personnel told reporters that the situation this year is more like “accumulation and accumulation”. The early spandex entering the country was called It is a “noble fiber” and is relatively expensive. With the continuous improvement of craftsmanship, technology and industrial chain, more and more garments have increased the use of spandex, which has gradually formed a consumer trend. This year’s price increase is mainly driven by demand. The industry now has a saying that “you can’t spin without ammonia” because the scope of applications is getting wider and wider.
Gong Yuqian also believes that the driving effect of the demand side is more obvious. She said that the overall operating rate of downstream looms has increased compared with last year, and many customers have reported that texturing machine equipment has also increased this year. is increasing.
In addition to factors such as tight supply and rising costs, the overall industry prosperity has also contributed to the rise in spandex prices. Previously, Huafeng Chemical (002064, SZ) stated at an investor relations event , the price trend of spandex has also benefited from the increase in the overall prosperity of the chemical industry.
Contrary to the promising growth of spandex, downstream textiles are suffering. “The price of spandex has soared, and we are complaining endlessly. Now not only has the price increased, but we can’t get the goods.” A textile raw material supplier in Zhejiang said.
It is worth noting that spandex inventories are currently at historically low levels. According to relevant data, the current social inventory is basically around 8 to 10 days, and some manufacturers only have 2 to 5 days of inventory. Many manufacturers even have basically no inventory, and the spot supply is still not abundant.
Interim reports of high-prosperity or continuing leading companies can be expected
Spandex factories have limited room to increase production capacity this year, and the short-term supply shortage may continue. Baichuan Yingfu analysts said that the supply of goods on the market is relatively tight, mainly supplying old customers. Overall, the spandex market price is expected to be strong in the short term. The specific trend of spandex in the future still needs to pay more attention to the upstream market price and terminal demand. Wait for the progress.
When new production capacity will be released is an important factor affecting the future trend of spandex. In Gong Yuqian’s view, it is difficult to alleviate the supply shortage problem before new production capacity is put into operation. Most of the new production capacity will be put into operation at the end of this year or the beginning of next year in a gradual manner.
Huafeng Chemical also holds the same view. In the June research activity, Huafeng Chemical stated that the price trend of spandex will be suppressed as the production capacity of advantageous enterprises is released, but in the long term It seems that with the change in consumer concepts and the upgrading of consumer demand, the application scope of spandex continues to expand, and its demand can maintain a stable growth rate.
The above-mentioned person from Xinxiang Chemical Fiber told reporters that the proportion of spandex used by high-end brands is getting higher and higher. In the past, spandex content of 5% belonged to mid-to-high-end brands, but now the content of high-end brands is 15%. %-20%, and some even reach 25%, and the demand growth rate is obvious.
At present, the concentration of the domestic spandex industry is gradually increasing, and industry competition is moving towards oligopoly and differentiation. The rise in spandex prices in the first half of the year accelerated industry consolidation, and future industry expansion will basically focus on the head. Small and medium-sized enterprises are no longer able to expand production capacity. It is reported that Xinxiang Chemical Fiber’s 100,000-ton spandex production capacity is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of the year.
Benefiting from the rise in spandex prices, listed companies such as Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber have performed well this year. According to the first quarter report, the operating income of Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber has increased significantly, and their performance Eye-catching, the operating income of both companies in the first quarter doubled compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was more than 5 times that of the first quarter of last year (this should be circled). The price of spandex has continued to run at a high level since April and is still rising recently. It is expected that Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber will report mid-year results. </p
