In May this year, my country’s exports showed negative growth for the first time, and the trend of declining growth will continue. From the beginning of the year to April, the monthly exports of textile and apparel achieved growth, but the growth rate has declined month by month since March, with a negative growth of 16.8% in May for the first time. Excluding anti-epidemic supplies, exports increased by 72.8% that month, a smaller growth rate than the previous period. Since the second to third quarter of last year was the peak of exports, it is initially predicted that the monthly export growth rate will slow down or even decline until the end of the third quarter.
The global vaccination rate increased by 12 percentage points month-on-month, and external demand is expected to pick up further in the second half of the year. As of June 24, according to statistics from the University of Oxford, more than 2.8 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been reported worldwide, with a vaccination rate of 22.59%, an increase of 12 percentage points from May 24. Among them, the vaccination rate in developed economies generally reaches more than 40%. Some experts predict that based on the current vaccination speed, the EU will achieve herd immunity in the second half of the year, and by then the demand for textiles and clothing in major economies will further return to normal.
The RMB exchange rate fluctuates in short-term directions, but the long-term appreciation trend is still irreversible. In mid-June, the Federal Reserve released a signal to raise interest rates, and the U.S. dollar index rose rapidly. At the same time, driven by factors such as the adjustment of the monetary policy of the People’s Bank of China and the decline in support for the RMB from the current account surplus, the unilateral appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has come to an end. On June 24, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4824 yuan, depreciating 203 points. This was the eighth consecutive day of depreciation, with a cumulative depreciation of 968 points. Compared with the high point in early June, the cumulative depreciation is 1,252 points. In the medium and short term, two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will become the norm. In the long run, China’s economic growth rate and improvement in labor productivity have laid a good foundation for the improvement of the RMB’s purchasing power parity, which determines the long-term appreciation trend of the RMB. When conducting foreign trade activities, enterprises must pay attention to the long-term and short-term trends of the RMB, adjust business strategies in a timely manner, and formulate long-term plans based on exchange rate trends.
From January to May, the national textile and apparel trade volume was US$126.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Among them, exports were US$115.11 billion, an increase of 17.7%, an increase of 15.7% compared with the same period in 2019; imports were US$11.42 billion, an increase of 24.6%, an increase of 13.2% compared with the same period of 2019, and the cumulative trade surplus was US$103.69 billion, an increase of 17% compared with the same period of 2019. An increase of 15.9%.
In May, the national textile and apparel trade volume was US$27.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, an increase of 4% compared with the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month increase of 3.2%. Among them, exports were US$24.84 billion, a decrease of 16.8%, an increase of 4.3% from the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month increase of 4.5%; imports were US$2.17 billion, an increase of 59.1%, an increase of 1% from the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. The trade surplus for the month was US$22.67 billion, a decrease of 20.4%, an increase of 4.6% compared with the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month increase of 6%.
Textiles were the main reason for the decline in exports that month
With the slight improvement in external market demand, exports of anti-epidemic materials continued to fall, and the year-on-year base Due to the combined effect of large and other factors, in May, textile and clothing exports continued to rise. Exports in that month maintained a month-on-month growth. However, exports experienced negative growth for the first time year-on-year, with an increase of 4.3% compared with the same period in 2019. The growth rate was significantly lower than the previous period.
The decline in that month was mainly dragged down by textiles. The decline in textiles reached 40.8%, an increase of 5.3% compared with 2019. Clothing increased by 37.6%, an increase of 3.5% compared with 2019.
Export growth to the EU and Japan will be sluggish in the future
The US and ASEAN markets have maintained relatively stable and sustainable growth, while export growth to the EU and Japan will be sluggish in the future. In the second month of the second quarter, the growth momentum of textile and apparel exports to major markets has weakened. From the figure below, it can be clearly seen that in April, China’s exports to all four major markets and bulk commodities basically showed a slowdown or slowdown in growth. The downward trend is expected to remain until the end of the third quarter.
As the largest export market for China’s textile and clothing, the United States still plays a prominent role as a “stabilizer” in the market. From January to May, China’s exports to the United States reached US$20.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% and an increase of 23.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle-woven garments increased by 62%, down 1.8% from 2019, and basically returned to the pre-epidemic level.
European Union market demand has rebounded, but the stamina is insufficient. From January to May, China’s textile and clothing exports to the EU were US$16.57 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and an increase of 18.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle-woven garments increased by 30.9%, an increase of 6.7% over 2019. Export growth in May was insufficient, with a 16.4% decline.
�The market is highly volatile and has limited room for growth. From January to May, China’s textile and apparel exports to Japan dropped by 8.9% year-on-year and increased by 9.2% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity needle-woven garments increased by 8.4% year-on-year, down 2.7% from 2019.
The ASEAN market is relatively stable, and exports maintain double growth. From January to May, China’s textile and apparel exports to ASEAN increased by 42.2% year-on-year and 23.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the key commodity yarn fabrics increased by 41.4% year-on-year and 5.9% compared with 2019.
The share of Chinese products in the three key markets remains at a high level, and the share in the European and American markets is still higher than the same period in 2020 and 2019. The Japanese market has fallen slightly.
From January to March, the 27 EU countries imported US$33.01 billion from the world, an increase of 10.7%, and imports from China increased by 34.2%. China accounted for 35.1%, which was 6 higher than the same period in 2020 and 2019 respectively. percentage points and 5.2 percentage points.
From January to April, the United States imported US$42.79 billion from the world, an increase of 25.1%, and its imports from China increased by 43.4%, with China accounting for 30.9%, which was higher than the same period in 2020 and 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 36.8%, which was lower than the same period in 2019 and 2020, and clothing accounted for 28.8%, both higher than the same period in 2019 and 2020.
From January to April, Japan’s imports from China fell by 4%, with China accounting for 55.1%, which was lower than the same period in 2020 and 2019. Among them, textiles accounted for 57.8%, which was lower than the same period in 2020 and higher than the same period in 2019; clothing accounted for 55.2%, which was higher than the same period in 2020 and lower than the same period in 2019.
The decline in the export of anti-epidemic materials further expanded
The decline in the export of anti-epidemic materials further expanded, and the export of clothing commodities maintained a good growth trend. In May, the export of textile anti-epidemic materials continued to decline, and the decline further expanded. The declines in medical masks and medical protective clothing in that month reached 93.4% and 86.4% respectively, driving the cumulative exports from January to May to decline by 75.1% and 44.7% respectively.
Affected by the decline in mask exports, textile exports fell by 40.8% in May. After removing masks, the actual growth was 71.5%, an increase of 1.6% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the total growth of yarn fabrics was 82.3%, which was a decrease of 5.6% compared with the same period in 2019. The cumulative export of textiles from January to May decreased by 2.9%. After excluding masks, the actual growth was 48.3%, an increase of 9.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the total growth of yarn fabrics increased by 45%, an increase of 2% compared with the same period in 2019.
Although clothing is also affected by protective clothing, export growth is strong driven by the rebound in external demand. In May, exports increased by 37.6%. After excluding protective clothing, the actual growth was 74.2%, an increase of 2.7% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the total growth of needle and woven clothing was 38.2%, an increase of 4% compared with the same period in 2019. The cumulative export of clothing from January to May increased by 48.2%. After excluding protective clothing, the actual growth was 56.9%, which was an increase of 12.1% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, the total growth of needle-woven clothing was 41.4%, which was an increase of 7.2% compared with the same period in 2019.
Note*: Masks and protective clothing are based on China Customs HS8-digit code statistics, statistics The caliber is slightly larger.
The year-on-year growth rate of exports in major provinces and cities slowed down
From January to May, the exports of the country’s key export provinces, cities (districts) still maintained growth, among which The top five exports of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian all achieved rapid growth year-on-year and compared with the same period in 2019. However, judging from the situation in a single month, export growth has dropped significantly. Among the top five provinces and cities, Jiangsu and Guangdong, as well as Guangxi, Hunan, Henan and other places in the central and western parts of the country have experienced negative growth year-on-year and compared with 2019. Most other regions have experienced negative growth. The growth rate has also dropped significantly.
The gap between textile imports and the previous year is large
The growth of clothing imports continues unabated, and the gap between textile imports and the same period in 2019 has further widened. Clothing imports show a good development trend and achieve sustained and stable growth. In May, clothing imports increased by 80.7% and 34.2% respectively year-on-year and compared with 2019, of which needle-woven clothing increased by 85.9% and 27.8% respectively. From January to May, clothing imports increased by 58.9% year-on-year and 46.2% compared with 2019.
Monthly textile imports rebounded slightly year-on-year, with an increase of 48.1% in the month, an increase of 18 percentage points from the previous month, but a decrease of 12.3% compared with 2019, and the decrease continued to expand from the previous month. Among them, the total volume of bulk commodity yarn fabrics decreased by 15.3%. From January to May, textile imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, down 3.1% from the same period in 2019.
Textiles increased by 7.4% year-on-year, a decrease from the cumulative growth rate last month, and a decrease of 3.1% compared with 2019.
Cotton import volume fell and price rose
In May, cotton import volume continued to fall, with 173,000 tons imported that month, a year-on-year increase of 147%. The price of imported cotton has been rising month by month, with the average import price in May rising to US$1,980/ton, a new high since last year.
From January to May, cotton imports grew rapidly as a whole, with a total of 1.374 million tons imported from the world, a year-on-year increase of 70%. Imports from the United States, Brazil, India and Burkina Faso all increased, while imports from Australia fell by 70%.
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