Since the first half of this year, the supply and demand fundamentals of the polyester market have been promising, especially in the polyester and polyester industry. Not only has the decline in market prices been wiped out, but oversold conditions in polyester and polyester factories are also common. Although the inventory of polyester and polyester factories is lower than that of the same period last year, polyester and polyester factories are not resting easy, because this round of downstream factories buying a large amount of raw materials is not because orders have improved significantly in the second half of the year, but because…
From mid-February to early March, and from mid-May to the end of June, although cloth merchants would buy cloth at these two times in previous years, this year is especially so. To use adjectives from industry insiders: crazy and unpredictable. . To briefly explain, after mid-February, crude oil skyrocketed, and cloth merchants took the opportunity to buy cloth at low prices, causing factory gray cloth inventories to fall sharply. After mid-May, they were optimistic about terminal orders and chemical fiber prices in the second half of the year, and there was another crazy wave. Although During this period, there was indeed a certain return of orders from Southeast Asia, and weaving autumn and winter orders were also started in advance. However, more of the atmosphere came from inquiries and orders from cloth merchants, resulting in a “thriving” market. In fact, so far, terminal clothing has not been opened. Large-scale order signing mode, especially autumn and winter orders.
With the deepening of the off-season, the problem of weaving inventory has once again become a problem for enterprises at this stage. From the data, it was found that the load of looms in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions dropped to around 74%, which was a decrease from July. As the market gradually declines, gray fabric inventories show an upward trend, and the inventory days return to high levels. The load of looms in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has dropped to around 74%. Orders from warp knitting factories in Haining, Zhejiang, have continued to decrease. Most factories have found it difficult to balance production and sales. High gray fabric inventories have squeezed cash flow. The loom loads of most factories will reach 50-80%. , the inventory of gray fabrics in mainstream local warp knitting factories has risen to 25-45 days. The Jiangsu region is still greatly affected by epidemic prevention and control, the transportation of gray fabrics is not smooth, and weaving factories continue to accumulate inventory, which is currently close to a high of about 40 days. At present, the domestic sales market is starting slowly, and new orders are very slow to be placed. At the same time, due to the impact of rising sea freight prices and the lack of containers, foreign trade orders are also relatively cautious. In order to deal with this problem, weaving manufacturers have recently heard that some manufacturers have reduced production and reduced operating hours.
It can be said that the last round of prosperity only transferred the early inventory of polyester factories to the downstream. But when the downstream is all inventory, the next transfer channel is not So smooth!
Therefore, in the off-season of August, the equipment must be inspected in a timely manner and the off-season inventory quantity can be controlled within a reasonable range, so that the polyester factory will not be too passive in the coming time.
As expected, due to low polyester profits and high inventories recently, polyester factories are under pressure and some companies have begun to reduce production. It is understood that domestic mainstream polyester factories Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi, and Tiansheng all plan to reduce production by approximately 20%, with a total production reduction of approximately 4 million tons, and the recovery time is to be determined. At the same time, some other polyester companies have also announced production reduction plans one after another. Currently, the production capacity involved in parking and reducing production is 4.536 million tons. The market outlook does not rule out that other domestic companies with relatively high inventories also have production reduction plans. Then the output of the domestic polyester industry will decline significantly. It is expected that after the load reduction, the industry output will be at the level of 1.09-1.1 million tons, and the load will be below 86%. Later, small and medium-sized enterprises will follow up, and the load may be reduced to around 83%.
List of recent polyester production cuts
In short, the market is currently facing a game between supply and demand, especially the maintenance efforts on the supply side. Moreover, the demand side has been recovering after September, but the supply side is facing accumulated pressure. Therefore, whether the supply side is really undergoing maintenance to alleviate the market supply pressure is the focus of attention. According to the maintenance expectations announced in the early stage, the maintenance efforts are relatively concentrated, which may cause a periodic mismatch between supply and demand, which may drive the market upward in the future. </p
