Since last year, the home textile market, as the engine of export growth of textile and apparel products, has ushered in a golden period of development. Many home textile companies have received large dividend support, and home textile production capacity has also experienced explosive growth. In the second half of the year, the home textile market seems to be unsatisfactory!
According to customs statistics, my country’s home textile exports from January to July were US$18.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%. However, the cumulative growth rate was 10 percentage points narrower than that from January to June. An increase of 19.8% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, exports of home textile products to the United States in the first seven months were US$6.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 53.7%, but the cumulative growth rate was narrowed by 12 percentage points compared with the previous six months; exports to the EU were US$2.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, but the cumulative growth rate was narrower than the previous six months. It narrowed by 7 percentage points in 6 months. In July, my country’s home textile product exports also fell sharply after the “double decline” in the growth rate of my country’s textile and clothing exports; and from the feedback from trading companies in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and other places in August, the export of home textile products has not improved, and the expected growth rate will further decline year-on-year.
Home textiles, as the engine of export growth of textile and apparel products
Why did it hit the brakes?
First, since May, major textile countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have forced the textile and garment industry to resume work and production on the premise that the epidemic situation has eased slightly. Some home textile orders returned to China, Vietnam, etc. were quickly withdrawn;
Secondly, the export grade of home textile products is low, the profit is low, and the added value is not high. On 6/7/8 Under the premise that cotton yarn futures have surged in March, home textile companies and foreign trade exporters are simply unable to accept and digest it, and their enthusiasm for taking orders and exporting has continued to decline;
Third, sea freight has risen sharply The situation of “hard to get a ticket” for containers and shipping space is still fermenting. For the export of low-profit home textile products, there is an increasing phenomenon that “flour is more expensive than bread”. Due to the uncertainty of shipping schedule, arrival and landing at the port/ The unloading period has been significantly extended (some ports in the United States and Europe require 10-20 days), and foreign buyers generally lack the confidence to place orders and Chinese manufacturers to accept orders;
Fourth is July The RMB exchange rate generally fluctuated within a narrow range (the central parity rate at the end of the month closed at 6.4602, basically the same as 6.4601 at the end of last month), and the direction is unclear. Home textile companies are increasingly worried about the appreciation of the RMB in the second half of 2021.
The traditional peak season has arrived, but the export growth engine has hit the brakes!
As an important raw material for home textiles, can the price of polyester filament hold up?
Taking polyester filament POY150D/48F as an example, the average market price in August was 7,548 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.7% from the average price in July. The low point of POY appeared in January. The average price is 6,069 yuan/ton, with the peak in July, and the monthly average price is 7,756 yuan/ton. Since mid-July, the frequency of promotions has accelerated, and the focus of POY negotiations has continued to decline. However, compared with the price at the beginning of the year, the current POY price has not yet reached At the low point, although polymeric raw materials have increased by nearly 30% compared with the beginning of the year, the average POY cash flow in August is also higher than the level at the beginning of the year. Therefore, for downstream users, it has not yet reached the stage of concentrated bargain hunting, and is still replenishing goods in stages. Lord.
After the end-of-month promotions, the purchasing volume of some downstream users is around one week, and there is no willingness to purchase in the short term after the centralized replenishment. Therefore, the polyester filament market will enter the price-free market in early September. The state of the market, and with the expiration of the next wave of purchasing cycles, the market still has expectations for promotions. On the premise that there is no major change in terminal demand, it is difficult for polyester filament to reverse the mode of promotional shipments. Most autumn and winter fabrics have been stocked in advance in the second quarter, and the demand for polyester filament has been overdrawn in advance. The demand for the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” peak seasons is also difficult to reflect, and the market still needs to be treated with caution.
The main driving force for the price increase of polyester filament at the beginning of the year and at the end of June came from the cost side. Therefore, the market still needs to pay attention to the trends of raw materials in September. In 2021, the launch of new production capacity of the main raw material PTA will still be relatively large. Against the background of oversupply, the upward pressure on PTA futures is increasing, and the support for polyester filament is limited. The new polyester filament projects in the second half of the year are expected to be more than 2 million tons. Even if the newly launched water-jet looms and texturing machines in northern Jiangsu and other places are put into use as scheduled, considering the current terminal textile and clothing orders, it is difficult for the overall demand to increase. , so there are many polyester filament companies launching the second round of production reduction plans to protect prices. </p