With the arrival of the traditional textile peak season, the market has become extremely restless in the near future!
Recently, the market has been flooded with reports from CCTV Finance! According to the report: Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to July this year, the cumulative export trend of domestic textile and clothing has been steady, achieving growth compared with the same period in 2020 and 2019. Due to the obvious recovery of the external demand market, some garment processing factories have even placed orders until next year.
On the other side, on September 3, cotton and cotton yarn futures, important raw materials for the textile industry, Ushered in a larger rebound, both closing more than 3.5% higher.
The market has become extremely restless in the near future, which has given hope to textile people who originally expected to be depressed. Will it be prosperous in the next peak season? What is the market trend in traditional peak seasons?
From the current perspective, the market is still divided. The so-called Golden Nine and Silver Ten refer to the fact that the domestic textile market will usher in more benefits in September. Textile product prices usually perform strongly. However, whether this year will be as expected, the market performance is highly doubtful.
Judging from the 10 recent survey companies, 60% of companies believe that the market expectations for the Gold, Nine and Silver Ten are optimistic. Compared with 20%, its main views are: first, it is believed that a large number of domestic orders will be placed in autumn and winter during the traditional textile peak season. In addition, the overseas epidemic has not yet eased, and foreign orders will still have a tendency to return. Second, cotton prices are relatively strong. Considering the support of raw material costs, the yarn market is expected to run at a high level.
50% of the companies believe that the market conditions are expected to be stable. Their main opinions are: First, the overall off-season for the cotton spinning market this year is not weak, and peak season orders have been advanced. According to some textile companies It reflects that overseas “Double Festival” orders are placed 2-3 months earlier than in previous years, and terminal finished product inventory needs to be digested. It is expected that the “Golden September and Silver Ten” markets will gradually return to rationality. Second, recent orders from yarn mills can last for about one month, manufacturers’ yarn inventories are low, and short-term cotton spinning market prices are still supported. The third is the impact of macro policies. In order to prevent commodity prices from rising too quickly, the country’s macroeconomic measures of “guaranteing supply and stabilizing prices” continue.
30% of the companies believe that market expectations are negative. Their main points are: First, there is a backlog of social inventory. Since yarn middlemen took too much stock in the early stage, gray fabric factories did not Due to large-scale purchases, the cotton spinning industry chain is not conducting smoothly. Considering the cost of capital interest, it is expected that middlemen will be willing to sell a large number of goods and reduce prices in the later period. Second, port shipping logistics are tight, export shipping costs continue to rise, terminal textile and clothing profits are compressed, and export pressure increases sharply.
On the whole, the editor believes that the current transmission of the textile industry chain is still not smooth, and it will take time to digest the end-use gray cloth and finished garment inventory. Under the weak supply and demand pattern of fundamentals, it is expected that The characteristics of the market’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” peak seasons will not be too obvious. In the later period, we need to continue to pay attention to the turning point of the recovery of end market demand and the node of domestic autumn and winter orders.
From the perspective of raw materials such as polyester filament, polyester factories have held several major sales, and downstream purchases have increased, which has stimulated the enthusiasm of textile companies for purchasing in the short term. However, due to the lack of bright spots in terminal market orders, the demand-side trading atmosphere remained mainly light. Moreover, the raw material market has declined, leading to greater caution in placing new orders. It is expected that the polyester filament market is likely to fluctuate downward in mid-to-early September. However, as domestic sales orders are placed around the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market may improve by then, and we are waiting for the “Golden Nine” market to improve. </p
