Introduction: At present, domestic demand is relatively stable, and external demand has become the focus of the market. However, sea shipping rates have been rising, container orders are still full in September, and polyester industrial yarn and its downstream exports are still expected to be hindered. Considering that factory inventory pressure is gradually increasing, the supply side However, there is no obvious shrinkage. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the polyester industrial yarn market may be difficult to see a significant improvement in September.
List of export data of polyester industrial yarn in the past three years;
Source: Longzhong Information
The import dependence of polyester industrial yarns mostly remains in the range of 1-2%. Last year, Hailide After Vietnam’s production capacity was increased, the local epidemic affected demand less than expected. Some products were imported for domestic consumption, resulting in a significant increase in total import volume compared with the same period last year. However, due to the low total volume, it had little impact on the market. And when domestic demand is normal, considering that the export dependence of polyester industrial yarn is about 30%, the market pays more attention to the export of polyester industrial yarn. As can be seen from the above figure, the total export volume of polyester industrial yarn in the first half of the year increased compared with the same period of the previous two years. However, the total export volume in July fell short of expectations, down 3.63% from the same period in 2019.
The top 20 export trading countries of polyester industrial yarn in July 2021 and month-on-month situation (unit: tons/year)
Source: Longzhong Information
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China’s import volume of polyester industrial yarn in July 2021. It was 42,700 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 285,400 tons. The import volume was -0.65% month-on-month and +235.95% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume was +275.99% compared with the same period last year. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country’s polyester industrial yarn export volume in July 2021 was 414,300 tons, and the cumulative export volume was 326,400 tons. The export volume was -11.44% month-on-month and +28.31% year-on-year. The cumulative export volume was +39.68% compared with the same period last year. %.
Data show that in July 2021, the top 20 trading countries for polyester industrial yarn exports accounted for 80.04%, which was +2.59% month-on-month and +1.18% year-on-year. It can be seen that , the total volume of the top six exporting countries of polyester industrial yarns all fell slightly month-on-month, and the largest decline was in Turkey, with a month-on-month decrease of 226.6 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 1218.66 tons. Most of the last 14 countries had small increases. Overall, , the total export volume of the top 20 trading countries of polyester industrial yarn is relatively stable. Therefore, in the short term, the export situation of polyester industrial yarn may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly consolidate.
China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI):
Source ：Longzhong Information
The biggest factors affecting exports this year are the shortage of containers and the rise in shipping charges. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has continuously updated record highs during the year, as of September It closed at 3097.58 points on the 3rd, with an increase of 43.41% during the year. However, container orders in the third quarter are still full. Therefore, in the short term, the shortage of containers and high sea freight may not help the export of polyester industrial yarn and its downstream products to improve.
To sum up, the export data has weakened, the superimposed container freight index is still promising, and the foreign trade situation is still hindered in September. Superimposed on the current demand side of polyester industrial yarn, there has been no significant improvement in the recovery. The raw material side remains weak and volatile, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is gradually increasing. However, there is no obvious tightening plan on the supply side. The contradiction between supply and demand may restrict the polyester industrial yarn market in September. improvement. </p
