Since September, polyester filament production and sales have been sluggish, corporate inventories have continued to increase, and the frequency of promotions has accelerated. However, terminal demand has been sluggish, user purchasing has been weak, and polyester filament production and sales data have been poor. But going back to the upstream of polyester, bulk commodities such as crude oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol have been rising recently, forming a polyester industry chain with hot top and cold bottom.
Although the weak downstream market has restricted the rise in polyester yarn prices, upstream commodities such as crude oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol are rising. At the same time, some positive factors have begun this week. Under such circumstances, many industry insiders predict that polyester filament yarn and other polyester raw materials will see a periodic improvement in the market outlook.
Intensive maintenance of multiple devices
PTA has received obvious price support
Recently, despite the stabilization and rebound of crude oil, PTA has still suffered a sharp decline, with the 2201 contract falling to as low as 4,736 yuan/ton, causing serious damage to production-end profits. Due to the squeeze, the whole PTA industry is facing huge losses. Based on historical experience, this situation is unsustainable. Recently, good news on the PTA side has been frequent. Coupled with the increase in upstream maintenance from September to October and the improvement in the supply and demand structure, PTA is expected to rebound.
With the restart of the Zhongtai and Sanfangxiang units last week, the PTA load returned from low to neutral levels. However, from September to November, the PTA production end will once again undergo centralized maintenance. The total maintenance production capacity of enterprises including Hengli, Yisheng, Tongkun, Honggang and Fujian Baihong exceeds 10 million tons. In late September, the 280,000-ton line of Liaoyang Petrochemical will be inspected for 10 days. A 2.25-million-ton line of Hengli Petrochemical will be inspected at the end of September. Fujia Dahua will inspect the 1.4-million-ton line for 45 days in early October. As Hengli Line 5 will be overhauled on October 8, Line 3 will be overhauled in late October, and Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons will be overhauled in October, the supply side is expected to shrink even more strongly. As an industry with relatively high concentration, Industry, this move will have a significant supporting effect on PTA prices.
Multiple sets of polyester filament installations reduce production suspension
The polyester end shows signs of stabilizing
Compared with the polyester opening rate that maintained around 90% in the early period, the polyester opening rate recently fell back to 84% and then rebounded to 87% Nearby, the main reason for the decline in the polyester production rate is at the filament end. In August, manufacturers reached a consensus on production restrictions, which led to a decrease in the production rate of medium-filament yarns. With the increase in sales during the week, filament stocks have declined marginally in the past two weeks. The weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the texturing operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have recently maintained stability after experiencing a sharp decline.
Relevant data shows that polyester prices seem to have stabilized. Judging from recent promotions, promotions have been reduced by 200-400 yuan, and there has been a correction in recent days. On the 14th, multiple sets of polyester filament installations were under the background of national dual control. News of production reductions were frequent. Shenghong increased the maintenance plan for the Spring Festival installations. Huaya reduced its load by 20-30%. Sanfangxiang stopped a set of filament installations, etc. , boosting market sentiment. The supply-end reduction combined with the warmer atmosphere at the raw material end, several major polyester filament yarn manufacturers in Zhejiang announced measures to increase FDY by 100. In other words, despite the promotion, in recent times, the price of polyester filament has still fluctuated and stabilized, without significant changes. Therefore, the promotion of polyester yarn failed to have much impact on future prices.
At present, the polyester load remains around 87.7%. After early promotions and With the reduction in production, the inventory pressure of polyester factories has been relieved to some extent. The inventory of conventional products has declined for two consecutive weeks. The current inventory of POY, DTY and FDY is 13.4 days, 24.5 days and 23.6 days. Except for FDY, the other products have dropped to neutral levels.
Affected by the surge in sea freight in the early stage, foreign trade orders were overdrawn in advance. Recently, it is understood that orders in the domestic market are showing signs of improvement, and some winter orders are gradually being placed. There is still a peak season expected at the end of September. Domestic demand will be the main focus in the second half of the year, and market consumer demand is worth looking forward to. However, considering that polyester profits have not significantly improved, high shipping costs have broken the pace of orders in previous years, and the aftermath of the reduction in consumption caused by the epidemic is still there, the sustainability of the recovery in polyester production and sales requires more downstream data to confirm each other. </p
