The lower limit of ethylene glycol futures is related to the current special market environment. One is that the volatility of ethylene glycol futures prices has reached a new high since its listing. Under the high volatility, the recent limit of ethylene glycol futures has appeared continuously; the other It is the pricing issue of ethylene glycol. In the current ethylene glycol price environment, the profit of oil-to-ethylene glycol production is close to the high point at the beginning of the year, but the profit of coal-to-ethylene glycol production continues to be subject to the upward pressure of coal prices. Compression, which also indirectly reflects that the current price of ethylene glycol is more anchored on coal-based ethylene glycol.
The 15-day implied volatility of the ethylene glycol futures index has exceeded 70%, reaching the highest level since the futures was launched. High volatility also has different impacts on the market. On the one hand, the market is more sensitive to potential risks under high volatility. During the recent expansion of volatility, the fall in ethylene glycol futures may reflect this change; on the other hand, the market is more sensitive to potential risks. High volatility has also increased the liquidity of the market. According to observation, the trading volume of the ethylene glycol futures market expanded significantly after the National Day holiday, and the market turnover ratio increased to around 1.86 during the month, second only to the level in March.
After the early rebound of ethylene glycol, the profit of petroleum-based ethylene glycol production has widened sharply and returned to the high point at the beginning of the year; however, the profit of coal-based ethylene glycol production In fact, it is still continuing to weaken. The direct reason is that the rise in coal prices is constantly squeezing the production profits of coal-to-ethylene glycol. Data statistics show that with the rise in thermal coal prices and the decline in the price difference between ethylene glycol and thermal coal, the linkage between ethylene glycol and thermal coal prices is significantly increasing. Among them, the recent correlation between ethylene glycol prices and thermal coal prices Nearly 96%. From this perspective, the decline in thermal coal prices under policy guidance has also directly affected the futures price of ethylene glycol. </p
