Since the beginning of this year, the industry has faced complex domestic and foreign challenges, especially in the second half of the year, the domestic epidemic situation has waxed and waned, and the dual control of energy consumption has continued to increase, which has a significant impact on the recovery of the industry’s main operating indicators. The stable domestic demand market and increasing international demand are still good for the economic operation of the industry. The continued rise in international oil prices has provided strong support for the chemical fiber market, but it has also increased corporate production costs. Looking forward to the whole year, the operation of the chemical fiber industry will still face many tests, but the industry has good development resilience and risk resistance capabilities, and will still achieve stable development.
01 Production growth slowed down
In the first three quarters, chemical fiber The overall operating load of the industry remained high, but in September, affected by dual energy consumption control and power rationing, the operating load dropped rapidly. Taking direct-spinning polyester filament as an example, the operating load was about 85% at the beginning of September, and dropped to about 75% at the end of September. Although it rebounded slightly in October, it was still running at low load overall, with the average monthly operating load at about 77%, a new low for the year. (figure 1). According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, chemical fiber output was 50.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.54%. Taking January to September 2019 as the base period, the two-year average growth rate of chemical fiber output was 6.75%.
Figure 1 Changes in direct spinning polyester filament load from 2019 to 2021
(Data source: Huarui Information)
On a monthly basis, affected by changes in the base of chemical fiber production last year, the year-on-year growth rate of chemical fiber production this year has declined month by month (Figure 2 ), coupled with the impact of dual energy consumption control and power rationing, the monthly chemical fiber output in September decreased by 2.0% year-on-year. The growth rate of chemical fiber output from January to September dropped to 13.5%, 3.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the first half of the year. Judging from the two-year average growth rate, the average growth rate in the first three quarters remained stable with a slight decline, and the growth rate slowed down.
Figure 2 Changes in the growth rate of chemical fiber production in 2021
（ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics)
02 Price focus shifts upward
From the cost side, international oil prices continue to rise. WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose from US$48/barrel and US$51/barrel at the beginning of the year to US$75/barrel and US$78/barrel at the end of September, respectively, with increases of more than 50 US dollars. %. In October, WTI and Brent crude oil prices both exceeded the US$80 mark (Figure 3), and international oil prices have far exceeded the price height before the outbreak.
Figure 3 International oil price trends from 2019 to November 2021
(Data source: Huarui Information)
Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the cost of chemical fiber has continued to rise, driving up the price of chemical fiber market, but the increase is not as high as that of raw materials. Taking polyester as an example, at the end of September compared with the beginning of the year, the raw materials PTA and MEG increased by 36% and 43% respectively (Figure 4), and polyester filament (POY) and polyester staple fiber increased by 30% and 24% respectively (Figure 5) . It can be seen that the price increase of fiber products is lower than the increase of raw materials.
Figure 4 Price trend of polyester raw materials from 2019 to November 2021
(Data source: Huarui Information)
Figure 5 Polyester price trend from 2019 to November 2021
(Data source: Huarui Information)
03 Exports maintain growth trend
According to China Customs statistics, from January to September, the export of major chemical fiber varieties was 3.5484 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.49%. The growth rate dropped sharply by 21.03 percentage points from the first half of the year. On the one hand, This is due to the increase in the base number in the same period last year, and on the other hand, due to the reduction in production and supply in the third quarter. Overall, chemical fiber exports still maintain a growth trend. Although the growth rate has slowed down from the previous month, the export scale still exceeds the pre-epidemic level, with an average growth rate of 3.31% in the two years (Table 1).
Table 1 Export volume statistics of major chemical fiber products
(Data source: China Customs)
04 The terminal market remains good
This year , my country’s textile and apparel domestic demand market has withstood the impact of local epidemics and floods, and the recovery trend has been consolidated. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles above designated size increased by 20.6% year-on-year. The growth rate rebounded by 33 percentage points from the same period last year, and the two-year average growth was 2.8%. Online consumption continues to play a role in stimulating the domestic demand market. From January to September, the national online retail sales of clothing products increased by 15.6% year-on-year. The growth rate increased by 12.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the two-year average growth was 9.3%.
In terms of exports, my country’s textile and apparel exports have maintained good growth due to the rebound in international market demand and the return of some overseas orders. China Customs Express data shows that from January to September,China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$227.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The growth rate slowed down 6.5 percentage points from the first half of the year, and the two-year average growth was 6.2%. The situation of clothing exports has improved significantly. From January to September, clothing exports reached US$122.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, which was the highest growth rate in the same period since 2010, with an average growth of 4.2% in the two years. Affected by the drop in demand for international anti-epidemic materials, textile exports from January to September were US$105.18 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, but the two-year average growth rate still reached 8.6%.
05 Profitability remains stable
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics Look, the overall economic benefits of the chemical fiber industry have increased significantly compared with the same period in 2020. From January to September, the chemical fiber industry achieved operating income of 744.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.28%, and a two-year average growth rate of 7.85%; total profits were 47.138 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 317.99%, and a two-year average growth rate of 52.70%; operating income profit margin Reached 6.33%, an increase of 4.31 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 3.17 percentage points compared with the same period in 2019; the industry’s loss rate was 20.56%, narrowed by 18.36 percentage points year-on-year, and narrowed by 3.86 percentage points compared with the same period in 2019; the loss of loss-making enterprises was 3.952 billion yuan , a year-on-year decrease of 54.17%, and an average decrease of 12.89% in two years.
The chemical fiber industry’s profitability ranks first in the entire textile industry chain, with the polyester and spandex industries contributing 40% and 23% of total profits respectively. Supply-side structural reform is the fundamental reason for the substantial growth in efficiency of the chemical fiber industry. The supply and demand pattern of the industry has improved, and the profits of the industrial chain have shifted from raw material links to fiber. In addition, the inventory premium of raw materials and products in the rising price channel has also contributed to larger profits for the company.
Fixed asset investment grew significantly in 2006
According to the National Bureau of Statistics According to data, from January to September, the actual fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry increased by 29.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 51.8 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the two-year average growth rate of investment in the chemical fiber industry was 0.3%, and the investment scale has basically returned to the epidemic level. front level.
Outlook
Looking ahead to the whole year, the chemical fiber industry will still face challenges Many tests. Against the background of global economic recovery and as the weather gets colder, crude oil consumption demand is expected to remain strong. On the supply side, OPEC remains cautious in increasing production. However, negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement and changes in monetary policies of various countries may become risk points that cause oil price fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the fourth quarter. Support for the chemical fiber market weakened. In October, power restrictions in various places have been relaxed, and the downstream weaving operating rate has recovered significantly, while the load of the chemical fiber industry has recovered slowly. Recently, Fujian, Zhejiang and other places have suspended orderly power consumption measures, which means that the power restriction policy will be further relaxed in the short term. At the same time, the festive atmosphere at the end of the year will increase end market demand, but the release of new production capacity will offset the benefits to a certain extent. In addition, we still need to pay attention to the uncertainty caused by the rebound of the epidemic in winter on the industry.
Taken together, in the fourth quarter, it is expected that with the consumption of raw material stocks by downstream companies and stable demand, the operating load of the chemical fiber industry will further increase, but It is difficult to rise back to the previous high, and the chemical fiber market price will remain high and fluctuate. It is expected that chemical fiber output will be affected by the gradual increase in the base number in the same period last year, and the annual growth rate will further decline compared with the first three quarters; economic efficiency indicators will still be significantly better than last year. However, the industry must have a clear understanding and be wary of the greater risks that the decline in international oil prices and the “reverse flow” of overseas orders after the COVID-19 epidemic has significantly eased will bring to my country’s chemical fiber and textile industry. my country’s stricter dual control of energy consumption will also be a threat to the industry. long-term problems. </p
