Affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices overnight, most domestic energy futures fell in yesterday’s session. SC crude oil futures fell more than 4%, while fuel oil futures and asphalt fell more than 3%. However, from yesterday evening to early this morning, international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. As of the close of this morning, WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.04%, and Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.01%.
International oil prices have fallen sharply, and domestic refined oil prices may have dropped for the first time in three months. At 24:00 on November 19, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Comprehensive agencies predict that domestic refined oil prices are expected to fall during this price adjustment cycle. Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 21 rounds of adjustments, with a total of “fourteen increases, three decreases, and four strandings.” The overall price of gasoline has increased by 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of diesel has increased by 1,925 yuan/ton. If this adjustment is implemented, domestic refined oil products will be in a price adjustment pattern of “fourteen increases, four decreases, and four stranded” prices. Filling up a box will cost 3.8 yuan less.
Interestingly, Biden’s “speech” on oil prices seems to be effective, and oil prices have already fallen back before any substantive action has been taken. So what are the key points that will affect oil prices in the next two months? Will oil prices control their upward momentum? Li Yunxu, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures Research Institute, believes that recent supply-side news is the main aspect that dominates the direction of oil prices. Concerns about U.S. intervention in short-term oil prices from the supply side continue to intensify. However, China and the United States are already in the release period of their strategic oil reserves. The phased release of reserves will have a certain effect on short-term alleviation of supply and demand contradictions in local areas, but it is difficult to become the core factor in determining oil price trends.
“Currently, the Biden administration is still at the stage of verbal expressions of its stance on oil prices. There are two main ways to change crude oil supply: calling on other countries to increase their reserves and increasing their own reserves.” CITIC Futures Energy Li Yanjie, chief chemical research officer, believes that first, the U.S. White House’s call for OPEC+ to increase production has not received a response, because this is not in line with the interests of OPEC+ members who have been cautious in increasing production this year. At the same time, countries such as Angola and Nigeria are still facing difficulties in increasing production due to lack of investment. question. Second, the White House also called on Japan, India, and South Korea to release strategic oil reserves. Compared with the United States, a “country on wheels” that has experienced huge inflationary pressure due to the surge in gasoline prices, India, Japan, and South Korea are not as sensitive to this as the United States, so they have never From the perspective of willingness, the possibility of coordinated release of strategic oil reserves is low. Compared with the coordinated release of reserves in history, the war in Libya in 2011 caused the country’s crude oil supply of 1.6 million barrels per day to almost stop. In response to the huge supply gap that occurred in the global oil market in the short term, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced With the release of 60 million barrels of oil reserves, of which the United States has released 30 million barrels of oil reserves, it is not difficult to see that the urgency and necessity of coordinated release of reserves are still lacking.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the release of strategic oil reserves by the United States can be divided into four types: emergency release, test sales, exchange agreements and non-emergency sales, which are respectively suitable as tools for economic threats caused by oil supply shocks, Testing, refiners proactively issuing requests for crude oil “loans” and increasing government revenue. “The current goal of suppressing high oil prices is not a sufficient condition for releasing reserves. However, rising expectations for reserves and weakening risk appetite have triggered a correction in oil prices. The market is trading this expectation for reserves. Therefore, if the recent low cost side can be passed on to downstream gasoline in a timely manner, Prices, coupled with the deterioration of the epidemic situation in winter and the market’s downward revision of the oil demand outlook, or the smooth progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and dragging down oil prices, the possibility of the United States releasing reserves will decrease accordingly,” Li Yanjie said.
In the U.S. domestic market, U.S. President Biden has begun to suppress the continued rise in energy prices. He emphasized that the gap between unfinished natural gas prices and actual retail prices is much higher than the average level before the epidemic. Oil and gas companies, for their part, boosted their profits, citing “mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior” by oil and gas companies and demanding “immediate” action by the FTC to further investigate potentially illegal conduct. The supply side has also begun to increase supply. The U.S. Department of the Interior is scheduled to auction a large number of oil and natural gas exploration rights in the Gulf of Mexico on the 17th. The IEA has given a positive assessment of the subsequent U.S. crude oil production and increased the U.S. daily production forecast for the fourth quarter by 30%. million barrels, and raised its forecast for next year by 200,000 barrels. U.S. daily production in 2022 will increase by 1.1 million barrels, accounting for 60% of the increase in production outside OPEC+. Yang An, head of energy and chemical research at Haitong Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that this will help cool down the current overheated crude oil market. “At present, oil prices have begun to respond. Oil prices have fallen from highs and set a new low for more than a month.”</p
