“It’s much better than at the beginning of November. The overall supply chain has slowed down and is basically back on track.”
On November 16, Xiao Xiao, marketing director of Shanghai Haifeiou Crafts and Gifts Co., Ltd., told China Business News that when they urged the raw material factory to deliver goods at the beginning of this month, they were told that they still needed to queue up. The reason given by the other party was that the power supply and production had been limited before. impact. Recently, the delivery cycle has been basically normal, recovering from the previous 15 to 20 days to 7 to 12 days.
For the interlocking supply chain, the impact of the “orderly use of electricity” initiative is transmission style. Since November, many places have successively suspended “orderly electricity consumption” measures, and the troubled supply chain has gradually returned to normal.
Many places have suspended orderly power consumption
Since November, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places across the country have issued notices on “suspension of orderly use of electricity”. Among them, Fujian’s notice requires that the province’s orderly use of electricity be suspended from November 1; Zhejiang’s orderly use of electricity will be suspended from November 8.
The premise for the suspension is that the orderly use of electricity that started in September “has achieved phased results” , one of the important tasks is to “strictly implement the issued load reduction indicators.”
According to information from the State Grid, the current operating areas of the State Grid The power supply and demand situation has returned to normal, and initial results have been achieved in ensuring power supply and people’s livelihood. The supply of thermal coal has increased significantly. Thermal coal inventory in the company’s operating areas rebounded to 99.32 million tons, and the number of days available for thermal coal rose to 20 days. The grid-connected power generation capacity has been significantly improved. The company’s emergency repair of coal power units and the blocked capacity of coal power units in the company’s operating areas have both reduced, achieving the goal of combining all needs and generating all the power as needed, and the power generation capacity of coal power units has been greatly improved. The scale of orderly electricity consumption has been significantly reduced. The maximum orderly power consumption scale of the entire network has dropped significantly, and the power gap has narrowed significantly. As of November 6, except for some provinces and certain periods of time that have adopted orderly power consumption measures for high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises, the scale of orderly power consumption in the entire network is close to zero.
Data from China Southern Power Grid also shows that on November 4, the entire China Southern Power Grid did not implement orderly power consumption. This is the first time that China Southern Power Grid has had no peak shifts since the orderly power consumption was fully launched on May 10 this year. On the 4th, the maximum load of China Southern Power Grid was 173.8 million kilowatts, and the daily regulated power generation and reception was 3.531 billion kilowatt hours, both higher than the same period last year.
China Southern Power Grid Corporation stated that under a series of deployments to ensure power supply recently, coal reserves in the southern region have gradually improved, and thermal power Unplanned outages and blocked output have dropped significantly, power generation capacity has been further improved, and the contradiction between power supply and demand has tended to ease.
However, the Zhejiang Provincial Energy Bureau also stated in the notice that since many main units are still out of service for maintenance, photovoltaic , offshore wind power and other power generation output are easily affected by extreme weather. The tense situation of power supply and demand in the province has not been fundamentally alleviated this winter and next spring. Therefore, it is still necessary to continue to increase dual energy consumption control and power guarantee work to prevent unreasonable projects such as the two high When electricity demand rebounds, we must be prepared to restart orderly electricity consumption at any time.
Wang Li, the person in charge of a garment company in Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, told China Business News that in November they were banned by the local government Notice of power rationing for 4 days. During these 4 days from November 17th to 20th, the factory can guarantee basic power consumption as long as the average hourly power consumption does not exceed the prescribed limit, otherwise it will be automatically shut down. Therefore, they plan to shut down one-third of the machines during the few days of power cuts and use staggered power within the factory. For example, machines that consume more power will not be activated until night. In addition, an jewelry processing and manufacturing company in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province was also informed that power cuts would continue in November.
The supply chain is gradually returning to normal
As orderly power consumption is gradually suspended, the supply chain gradually returns to normal.
Li Yanting, deputy general manager of Xuzhou Hailand Sauna Equipment Co., Ltd., told China Business News that suppliers can no longer take the limit Electricity production restrictions have been used as a reason to delay delivery, and the orders on their hands are gradually increasing.
Xiao Xiao said that not only the delivery cycle of upstream manufacturers has returned to normal, but also the original power supply restrictions have further affected The soaring raw material prices have also come down, especially the price of polyethylene.
Zhu Xinchun, general manager of Yiwu Hanlin Electronics Co., Ltd., also told China Business News that the overall feeling is that raw material prices have fallen. Same goes for shipping prices. Recently, their orders have increased slightly compared to last year.
Zhejiang Dadongnan Co., Ltd. (002263.SZ) responded on the investor interaction platform on November 16 that the company Production activities are organized and carried out in accordance with the requirements of the national power restriction policy. In November, various provinces have successively suspended the orderly power consumption policy. Currently, the company is producing normally. The company will continue to pay attention to the power restriction policy and organize production and operation activities in a scientific and reasonable manner.
Wang Li told China Business News that this year’s foreign trade orders for garment factories will reach about 500 million yuan, which is 40% higher than last year’s. More than 300 million yuan, an increase of more than 50%. However, raw material prices, international shipping prices and exchange rate fluctuations, which have increased significantly this year, have eroded a lot of profits. Many companies, including them, have experienced a situation where orders have increased but profits have not.
According to Oriental Fortune ChoiceStatistics show that in the third quarter of this year, among the 46 A-share listed apparel companies, 21 had a year-on-year decline in net profit, accounting for nearly half, including Peacebird, Disu Fashion, Anair, Hongdou, etc., and 14 at the same time. The operating income of listed apparel companies fell year-on-year.
According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, my country The total import and export value was 31.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% and an increase of 23.4% over the same period in 2019. Among them, exports were 17.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% and an increase of 25% over the same period in 2019.
Exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products both achieved growth. In the first 10 months, my country exported 10.3 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 22.4%, accounting for 58.9% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.1%; mobile phones were 716.58 billion yuan, an increase of 13.3%; automobiles (including chassis) were 179.87 billion yuan, an increase of 111.1%.
In the same period, the export of labor-intensive products was 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 10%, accounting for 18.3%. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were 898.78 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8%; textiles including masks were 762.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 16%; plastic products were 515.82 billion yuan, an increase of 22.9%. Exports of agricultural products were 433.96 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7%.
Although there has been a decline, the prices of many raw materials and international shipping prices are still at high levels.
Customs data shows that the import volume of iron ore, crude oil, soybeans and other commodities has decreased, and the import volume of coal and natural gas has increased. Prices rise. In the first 10 months, China imported 933 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 4.2%, and the average import price was 1,139 yuan per ton, an increase of 61%; crude oil was 425 million tons, a decrease of 7.2%, and the average import price was 3,128.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 35.6%. ; Coal was 257 million tons, an increase of 1.9%, and the average import price was 621.2 yuan per ton, an increase of 27.1%; natural gas was 99.074 million tons, an increase of 22.3%, and the average import price was 2584.4 yuan per ton, an increase of 11.2%; steel was 11.843 million tons, a decrease of 30.3% %, the average import price was 8,302.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 46.4%; unwrought copper and copper products were 4.429 million tons, a decrease of 21%, and the average import price was 60,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.4%.
China’s export container transportation market is basically stable, and ocean route freight rates are still hovering at high levels. On November 5, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 4535.92 points. Container throughput fell by 0.65% year-on-year in September. In the week ending November 9, the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) fell 28.98 to 1406.12, and the Baltic Dry Bulk Price Index fell 382 points to 2805 points. </p
