The decline in domestic ethylene glycol began in October and continued into November. The price trends in the two consecutive months are very different. During the month, the high reached a high of 7,367 yuan/ton on October 19. Then the market price continued to fall in November. So far, it has exceeded 5,000 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 100 yuan/ton. 32.13%.
Market pessimism cannot stop the “Big Mac”
Several domestic ethylene glycol projects are advancing in a “chasing” manner.
Although the market is currently pessimistic about ethylene glycol due to policy intervention in coal, it is difficult to hinder the start of the Big Mac project. It is understood that multiple domestic ethylene glycol projects are currently advancing in a “chasing” manner!
Good news recently came from a giant large-scale chemical project of the National Energy Group. On November 21, the 400,000 t/a ethylene glycol project of the National Energy Group Yulin Chemical completed the entire process at once and successfully produced qualified ethylene glycol products. According to reports, the project adopts the independent technology of the National Energy Group and is independently designed and constructed by the National Energy Group. All equipment is domestically produced. The core device of the 100,000 t/a carbonylation reactor is the largest ethylene glycol in operation in the country. Carbonylation reactor.
The project started construction in July 2018, and was completed in June 2021. Nitrogen tetroxide was introduced on November 16, and it took 108 hours to produce qualified ethylene glycol products.
On November 19, another company, Anhui Haoyuan Chemical Group Co., Ltd., successfully started a 400,000-ton/year polyester-grade ethylene glycol project using syngas to produce high-quality polyester-grade ethylene glycol.
Also recently, the world’s first waste gas to ethylene glycol project, the comprehensive utilization of waste gas of Hami Guanghui Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 400,000 tons of ethylene glycol project, was commissioned and commissioned by China Wuhuan Engineering Co., Ltd. EPC general contractor. Successfully produced qualified ethylene glycol products.
The signal flare is launched into the air:
China’s ethylene glycol production capacity has exceeded the 20 million tons mark!
Since 2018, ethylene glycol has entered a rapid expansion cycle, and the world’s ethylene glycol supply and demand situation has shifted from a balance between supply and demand to a trend of surplus supply. Affected by the expansion of production capacity of various ethylene glycol production processes in recent years, especially the rapid development of coal-to-ethylene glycol in China in recent years, downstream demand is difficult to see improvement. We learned from companies that currently both ethylene glycol companies and syngas-to-ethylene glycol companies are facing the pressure of overcapacity and oversupply in the entire industry. Despite this, various manufacturing companies still maintain high-load operations, exchanging market profits for profits, in response to the surge in domestic production capacity and competition from foreign imported supplies.
Industry insiders analyze that the current oversupply of ethylene glycol has just begun, and the real challenge is yet to come. In the next five years, global ethylene glycol production capacity will see substantial growth. Abroad, many large-scale projects have been launched in North America, the Middle East and South Asia. These devices mostly use cheap ethane as raw material and have strong international competitiveness. Domestically, the annual production capacity of projects planned to be put into production from 2020 to 2025 will reach 15 million tons.
Relevant statistics show that China’s ethylene glycol production capacity currently exceeds the 20 million tons mark. By 2022, if the various ethylene glycol route devices currently planned in China can be put into production according to the actual plan, the ethylene glycol production capacity will reach 30.58 million tons by then, and China’s apparent demand for ethylene glycol in 2022 is expected to be 20.24 million tons. .
Polyester factories are running out of inventory
The commissioning of new equipment may add pressure to the weak ethylene glycol market
From the current point of view, the price increase of ethylene glycol started with coal and was lost to coal. Recently, ethylene glycol has been divided into the coal sector by market participants. The continued decline in coal prices under policy control has dragged down the trend of ethylene glycol. Adjust down. The short-term decline is not only caused by pressure on the supply side, but also by the lack of motivation on the demand side. From a demand perspective, the recent polyester operating rate is 84.9%. At present, due to the recent shutdown of some units due to malfunctions, the polyester operating rate has increased slowly, and the power restriction policy has been relaxed. The polyester operating rate will continue to increase in the future. The current polyester inventory is high and the shipping efficiency is low. There is a certain accumulation of expectations. In the short term, considering the decline in terminal orders, it is difficult to reverse the short sentiment in the commodity market quickly. End orders are just needed to be purchased, and polyester factories may continue to have high inventories in the middle of the year.
From the current point of view, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase 2# 800,000��’s new unit is expected to be put into trial operation after the crude oil quota issue is resolved. After the power cuts are eased in Jiangsu, Haike’s DMC by-product unit is also expected to be put into trial operation. Shenhua Yulin’s 400,000-ton unit is also moving forward. Although the current domestic ethylene glycol overall The operating load is not high, but the commissioning of new equipment may add pressure to the already weak ethylene glycol market.
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