Gray fabrics fell by 0.1-0.5 yuan/meter, but no one paid attention. Simulated silk made a strong return. Several polyester factories will self-disciplinely reduce production by 20%. Polyester stocks are accumulating. The commissioning of new ethylene glycol equipment may add to the pressure…
Let’s take a look at what’s new this week!
Gray cloth fell by 0.1-0.5 yuan/meter, but no one cared about it
According to the person in charge of a manufacturer specializing in the production of elastic fabrics: “The domestic sales market has been too weak recently, and no one wants the goods. No one wants the 100D four-sided elastic with 2.2 throws. The current price is 2.4-2.5, which is directly reduced by 0.3 cents. They can’t even be sold!”
On the one hand, after the end of production restrictions, production capacity has returned to normal levels, and after the shipment of gray fabrics has slowed down, inventories have once again reached a high level. Especially for some manufacturers whose production capacity has not been affected or whose destocking has not been smooth during the production restriction stage, their inventories are now getting higher and higher. Due to financial pressure, selling goods has become the most efficient and fastest way to solve their urgent needs. There are many manufacturers who maintain inventory at a relatively reasonable position by cutting prices. On the other hand, now that the New Year is getting closer, collection work has become the top priority. The end of the year is the time when manufacturers need cash the most, and selling goods is also the fastest way to withdraw funds. Although selling goods basically means no profit or even loss, selling in cash, buying as you go, and getting white money is the way to go, so you’ll be safe!
The editor has something to say: Oversupply is bound to happen, and I am afraid that it will be difficult for manufacturers to alleviate their inventory in the future. The manufacturer also said that no one is buying the goods at the current selling price, and the price will drop again. But if the price of gray fabrics falls below the bottom line and the selling effect does not take effect, then manufacturers should reduce production to protect prices.
Imitation silk returns strongly
Recently, imitation silk fabrics have begun to “get ready” in the market. According to feedback from manufacturers, sales of imitation silk gray fabrics have increased, especially chiffon, tangled hemp, smooth crepe and other varieties. The person in charge of a professional imitation silk manufacturer said that conventional 75D 24T chiffon is very popular. The factory used to have a very high inventory, with more than 3 million meters of inventory. This month, part of the inventory has been reduced to more than 2 million meters. This situation There was none in the first three quarters.
As we all know, the period from November to April of the following year is the peak season for imitation silk. Judging from the current situation, we may receive a lot of orders next year.
Dyeing factories also feel that the quantity of imitation silk is increasing. The director of a dyeing factory specializing in the production of imitation silk fabrics said: “Recently, the number of imitation silk entering warehouses has begun to increase, and the market goods have decreased. The average number of entering warehouses per day was 800,000 meters. In the past, the number of imitation silk entering warehouses has begun to increase. They are all market products, polyester taffeta, pongee, and nylon. There are fewer of them now, but the number of imitation silk has increased, so the total warehouse quantity has not changed much.”
In addition to the promotion of the peak season itself, another factor that cannot be ignored for the improvement of imitation silk shipments is the impact of temperature. As early as October, there was news that this year would be a cold winter due to the La Nina climate, but so far, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have not felt the cold. Therefore, this not only reduces the time we have to wear heavy winter clothes, but more importantly, it also reduces the motivation to buy winter clothes. Especially the earlier Spring Festival further reduces the time for winter clothes to be displayed in clothing stores.
The editor has something to say: The improvement in the imitation silk market may be just a warm-up, because many people do not realize that the sales time of spring and summer clothing next year will be extended, and the sales volume of clothing and fabrics will increase.
Several polyester factories will voluntarily reduce production by 20%
It is reported that several major polyester manufacturers reached a consensus at a meeting on the morning of the 25th to reduce production by 20% based on the current actual production, and will make further production reduction decisions based on actual conditions.
Some netizens calculated the details as follows, you may wish to use them as a reference: Calculate the total maintenance of Hengyi plus other factories is 220W + 300W = 550W. Among them, Hengyi is calculated based on full inspection, that is, all 220W will be suspended for one month from November 28; other factories are calculated based on rotation inspection, that is, 300W will be divided into two batches starting from November 28, with 150W inspected first and then 150W inspected, and each inspection will take 20 days. . After the centralized production reduction was resumed in early January, maintenance during the Spring Festival was still carried out as originally planned. As a result, the polyester load from December to January is adjusted to 82.7%-82.8% (originally from December to January, respectively, it was 88-83%).”
The editor has something to say: In the short term, U.S. oil has made a strong comeback after recently falling below 80 US dollars per barrel, and the industry self-discipline alliance is vocal about stabilizing prices, which will have a certain boost to the market.
polyester tiredLibrary, new ethylene glycol equipment is put into operation or additional pressure is added
The price increase of ethylene glycol started with coal and was lost to coal. Recently, ethylene glycol has been divided into the coal sector by market participants. The continued decline in coal prices under policy control has dragged down the downward adjustment of ethylene glycol links.
The short-term decline is not only caused by pressure on the supply side, but also by insufficient power on the demand side. From a demand perspective, the recent polyester operating rate is 84.9%.
At present, due to the recent shutdown of some units due to malfunctions, the polyester operating rate has increased slowly, and the power restriction policy has been relaxed. The polyester operating rate will continue to increase in the future. The current polyester inventory is high and the shipping efficiency is low. In the future, There is a certain expectation of accumulation.
In the short term, considering the decline in terminal orders, the short sentiment in the commodity market is difficult to reverse quickly. End orders are just in need of procurement, and polyester factories may continue to have high inventories in the middle of the year.
The editor has something to say: Although the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol is currently not high, the commissioning of new equipment may add pressure to the already weak ethylene glycol market.
Market review
Polyester:
In terms of PTA, PTA prices increased this week. PTA’s operating load increased slightly, and the overall supply was sufficient. The processing fee is also in a neutral position, and there is not much room for compression. Although the current load of downstream polyester and terminal looms has increased slightly, as there has been no significant improvement in terminal market orders, the increase is expected to be limited in the future.
In terms of polyester filament, polyester filament fell first and then rose this week. The decrease is not much different from the increase, so the current price is basically unchanged from the beginning of the week. Polyester raw materials have risen, and polyester fiber manufacturers have increased their intention to raise prices under cost support.
In terms of profits, PX’s loss this week was slightly smaller than last week, and its current loss has narrowed by US$7/ton. In terms of PTA, its losses narrowed this week, and its current losses are around 122 yuan/ton. In terms of ethylene glycol, the loss decreased this week, and the current loss is 63 US dollars / ton. In terms of polyester filament, due to manufacturer promotions this week, the profit of FDY150D dropped, and the current profit is 118 yuan/ton; the profit of POY 150D dropped, and the current profit is 358 yuan/ton; the profit of DTY 150D decreased, and the current profit is 368 yuan/ton.
In terms of operating rate, the average operating rate of PTA was 75.8%, an increase of 4.1% from last week; the real-time operating rate was 75.9%, and the real-time effective operating rate was 83.9%. In terms of polyester, the average load of polyester increased by 1.1% to 88.2%. In terms of weaving, the quantity of gray fabric shipments has decreased, and the recent weaving operation rate has remained at around 73%.
In terms of production and sales, the polyester yarn market this week was affected by manufacturers’ promotion factors, and the transaction atmosphere was strong. Due to the weakening of cost-end support and the continuous sluggish production and sales, all polyester yarn manufacturers had promotions ranging from 200 to 600 yuan, but after the promotion, the downstream replenishment ended. Production and sales are gradually weakening, with overall production and sales at around 50-80%.
In terms of inventory, according to the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 18-28 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 18-21 days, FDY inventory is around 17-19 days, and DTY inventory is about 19-27 days.
In terms of weaving: It can be seen from the Shengze Index of the Ministry of Commerce that the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises is stable. Domestic sales orders have dropped sharply recently, but the export market has improved and orders have begun to increase, but the overall number of shipments has dropped compared with last week. Coupled with the recovery of production capacity, the price of gray fabrics has begun to rise slightly. At present, the weaving operating rate in Shengze area is stable at around 73%; the market is generally selling goods, and the overall gray cloth inventory has increased slightly to about 29.8 days.
Printing and dyeing: The activity of the printing and dyeing market declined slightly this week, and the number of gray fabrics dyed decreased compared with last week. With the end of “Double Eleven”, the textile market has taken a sharp turn, and the number of shipments has decreased.
The startup rate of most manufacturers is above 70%, and a few manufacturers have about 60%. In terms of gray cloth entering the warehouse, the quantity has decreased and the availability rate has dropped to 75%.
In terms of products, imitation silk has outstanding performance, and other products such as nylon silk and pongee are also dyed. The overall dyeing products are relatively mixed.
In terms of delivery time, with the recovery of production capacity, the previous backlog of orders has been released, and the delivery time has also improved, at about 10-12 days.
Outlook
This week, with the end of holiday orders, the market took a sharp turn, and shipments gradually decreased. As polyester manufacturers cut prices through promotions, production and sales increased, and the transaction atmosphere recovered. However, crude oil fell and polyester yarn was close to the profit and loss line. Major manufacturers collectively chose to reduce production to protect prices. In the short term, it will have a certain boosting effect on the market. Before the Spring Festival holiday, there used to be a wave of orders for pre-holiday stocking, but it is currently difficult to predict whether and when this wave of orders will come this year.
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Printing and dyeing: The activity of the printing and dyeing market declined slightly this week, and the number of gray fabrics dyed decreased compared with last week. With the end of “Double Eleven”, the textile market has taken a sharp turn, and the number of shipments has decreased.
The startup rate of most manufacturers is above 70%, and a few manufacturers have about 60%. In terms of gray cloth entering the warehouse, the quantity has decreased and the availability rate has dropped to 75%.
In terms of products, imitation silk has outstanding performance, and other products such as nylon silk and pongee are also dyed. The overall dyeing products are relatively mixed.
In terms of delivery time, with the recovery of production capacity, the previous backlog of orders has been released, and the delivery time has also improved, at about 10-12 days.
Outlook
This week, with the end of holiday orders, the market took a sharp turn, and shipments gradually decreased. As polyester manufacturers cut prices through promotions, production and sales increased, and the transaction atmosphere recovered. However, crude oil fell and polyester yarn was close to the profit and loss line. Major manufacturers collectively chose to reduce production to protect prices. In the short term, it will have a certain boosting effect on the market. Before the Spring Festival holiday, there used to be a wave of orders for pre-holiday stocking, but it is currently difficult to predict whether and when this wave of orders will come this year.
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